Uptrend's Account Talk

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With the price of oil down over $5.41 and gold down $71 - who knows what the day will bring. Even the jobless claims were down. If a Fed speaker offers any hint of a QE3 to come - watch out. I would not be short anything.
 
jpcavin said:
Can someone explain shorting for me?
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Basically you are betting that the market will go down and it is a way to make money. For example, you sell 100 shares of stock ABC at $10/share (credit to you of $1,000) thinking it will go down. Your broker loans you the shares to sell. A week later, stock ABC is trading at $7/share. You buy back 100 shares at $7x100=$700. The difference of $300 is your profit. Another way to do it is buy an ETF (electronically traded fund) that shorts the market (TZA is an example) - this is how I do it. It can be very rewarding but is also very risky if the stock goes up. This is a quick explanation.
 
jkenjohnson said:
Basically you are betting that the market will go down and it is a way to make money. For example, you sell 100 shares of stock ABC at $10/share (credit to you of $1,000) thinking it will go down. Your broker loans you the shares to sell. A week later, stock ABC is trading at $7/share. You buy back 100 shares at $7x100=$700. The difference of $300 is your profit. Another way to do it is buy an ETF (electronically traded fund) that shorts the market (TZA is an example) - this is how I do it. It can be very rewarding but is also very risky if the stock goes up. This is a quick explanation.
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Thank you. I understand simplicity. :D
 
Birchtree said:
With the price of oil down over $5.41 and gold down $71 - who knows what the day will bring. Even the jobless claims were down. If a Fed speaker offers any hint of a QE3 to come - watch out. I would not be short anything.
Click to expand...

If it moves back up I will hedge my short etf (TZA) by purchasing my long etf (TNA) and I will hang onto my profit of 9% form yesterday.
 
jpcavin said:
Can someone explain shorting for me?
Click to expand...

Here is a pretty good article on shorting with ETFs in a declining market, written about a year ago. You must be able to get in and out quickly (liquidity), and only trade on a trend with a leveraged fund if you hold overnight. Very risky, if you don't know what you are doing.

The market has now shown us that, my former (original) wave count is back in play. The choppy action of major wave 4 building the bear flag has completed and we are now in major wave 5 of primary wave A. The overall bear market primary wave structure should be ABC, and the major wave structure 5-3-5. Three subwaves have completed of major wave 5 of primary A, and now a contra trend wave 4 can start at any time, but will be short-lived. I figure SPX 1054-1065. The upper boundary of the estimate backtests the broken flag trendline. IMNO this is not a playable bounce in the daily timeframe, unless you plan on getting in one day and selling the next. Very risky, because with high volatility, the wave could complete and turn-over before you could get out. Then major wave 5, subwave 5 should complete between SPX 1060-1090. The indicators will tell us when this happens, and viola, we shall have a ripping buy signal. Could be later next week, but just guessing at this point. When we see the target for this wave down, we can do a fibonacci retracement estimate for an upside target. This should be a buy and hold position trade.
 
Uptrend said:
Here is a pretty good article on shorting with ETFs in a declining market, written about a year ago. You must be able to get in and out quickly (liquidity), and only trade on a trend with a leveraged fund if you hold overnight. Very risky, if you don't know what you are doing.

The market has now shown us that, my former (original) wave count is back in play. The choppy action of major wave 4 building the bear flag has completed and we are now in major wave 5 of primary wave A. The overall bear market primary wave structure should be ABC, and the major wave structure 5-3-5. Three subwaves have completed of major wave 5 of primary A, and now a contra trend wave 4 can start at any time, but will be short-lived. I figure SPX 1054-1065. The upper boundary of the estimate backtests the broken flag trendline. IMNO this is not a playable bounce in the daily timeframe, unless you plan on getting in one day and selling the next. Very risky, because with high volatility, the wave could complete and turn-over before you could get out. Then major wave 5, subwave 5 should complete between SPX 1060-1090. The indicators will tell us when this happens, and viola, we shall have a ripping buy signal. Could be later next week, but just guessing at this point. When we see the target for this wave down, we can do a fibonacci retracement estimate for an upside target. This should be a buy and hold position trade.
Click to expand...

Just watched an interview with Tom Demark on Bloomberg. He is watching for 1076 or lower and then, a possible 20% rally. Interesting
 
The first wave down from the bear flag break on the SPX is still developing. From SPX 1220, the market appears to be in a minute wave 4 of subwave 1 of major wave 5 of primary A. I thought this may backtest the bear flag channel break and also fill the open gap, but the SPX emini futures tonight are suggesting that minute wave 5 may be already underway. If so, the very short term target TA forecast shows SPX 1086-1090 area for the bottom of the current wave. This lines up with some of my other indicators as well. And it is a new low. Then we should get a rebound in subwave 2 that could go as high as the gap at 1164-1166 or slightly above it. Or we could just keep breaking down. But don't be fooled; wave major wave 5 of primary A is going to SPX 977 the way I figure the measured move from the bear flag break (I know I have been also suggesting 1060-1090, but after further review, 977 is the most likely and lines up with TA). This major wave 5 should unfold into mid-October.

Bottom line - If you have a trade to give - don't get burned in subwave 5, but wait till it finishes. That should happen in the next couple sessions. The we will have a short buy period, until major wave 5 continues down.
 
Last edited:
Uptrend said:
The first wave down from the bear flag break on the SPX is still developing. From SPX 1220, the market appears to be in a minute wave 4 of subwave 1 of major wave 5 of primary A. I thought this may backtest the bear flag channel break and also fill the open gap, but the SPX emini futures tonight are suggesting that minute wave 5 may be already underway. If so, the very short term target TA forecast shows SPX 1086-1090 area for the bottom of the current wave. This lines up with some of my other indicators as well. And it is a new low. Then we should get a rebound in subwave 2 that could go as high as the gap at 1164-1166 or slightly above it. Or we could just keep breaking down. But don't be fooled; wave major wave 5 of primary A is going to SPX 977 the way I figure the measured move from the bear flag break (I know I have been also suggesting 1060-1090, but after further review, 977 is the most likely and lines up with TA). This major wave 5 should unfold into mid-October.

Bottom line - If you have a trade to give - don't get burned in subwave 5, but wait till it finishes. That should happen in the next couple sessions. The we will have a short buy period, until major wave 5 continues down.
Click to expand...

Wow 977, glad I'm not in. I couldn't stand that ride.
 
Uptrend said:
The first wave down from the bear flag break on the SPX is still developing. From SPX 1220, the market appears to be in a minute wave 4 of subwave 1 of major wave 5 of primary A. I thought this may backtest the bear flag channel break and also fill the open gap, but the SPX emini futures tonight are suggesting that minute wave 5 may be already underway. If so, the very short term target TA forecast shows SPX 1086-1090 area for the bottom of the current wave. This lines up with some of my other indicators as well. And it is a new low. Then we should get a rebound in subwave 2 that could go as high as the gap at 1164-1166 or slightly above it. Or we could just keep breaking down. But don't be fooled; wave major wave 5 of primary A is going to SPX 977 the way I figure the measured move from the bear flag break (I know I have been also suggesting 1060-1090, but after further review, 977 is the most likely and lines up with TA). This major wave 5 should unfold into mid-October.

Bottom line - If you have a trade to give - don't get burned in subwave 5, but wait till it finishes. That should happen in the next couple sessions. The we will have a short buy period, until major wave 5 continues down.
Click to expand...

Uptrend,

I am trying to understand where you are getting the 977 from with the past few weeks performance. I am absolutly seeing your 1164 point as well as the 1087ish and the 1066ish happening over the next couple of weeks but how far out is this 977?
 
Khotso said:
UP, check out this link. I'm wondering how this aligns with your EW projections -- seems to me like it reflects your projections quite well, but what do I know? Wave theory is about patterns, analog theory is as well? Just wondering. :rolleyes:

http://pragcap.com/1946-analog-holds-key-for-current-market
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I'm not knocking your post, but I would think that if you looked at the various patterns over the past 75 years or so, you could find just about anything you want to match todays market. These people are guessing and that is all. But I guess we'll soon find out.
 
jkenjohnson said:
I'm not knocking your post, but I would think that if you looked at the various patterns over the past 75 years or so, you could find just about anything you want to match todays market. These people are guessing and that is all. But I guess we'll soon find out.
Click to expand...

Hmmm -- you're probably right. Think I'll still keep an eye on/around that date anyway -- you never know. I can use and will take any help I can get with determining a low. :o
 
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