Happy_Trails
Active member
Thanks, UT. I am trying to learn about the indicators. Your analysis is really helpful.
HT
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Uptrend's Account Talk
- Thread starter Uptrend
- Start date
Thanks, UT. I am trying to learn about the indicators. Your analysis is really helpful.
HT
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
Why do you use 15 min charts, vice 10 minute or 30 or 60?
What is different between them (other than the number of minutes
)?
I have tried to understand why different analysts use them, but haven't really gotten it yet.
What is different between them (other than the number of minutes
)?I have tried to understand why different analysts use them, but haven't really gotten it yet.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Why do you use 15 min charts, vice 10 minute or 30 or 60?
What is different between them (other than the number of minutes
I have tried to understand why different analysts use them, but haven't really gotten it yet.
I use Ameritrade and the options do not include a 10 minute chart. Short-term charts are usefull for day trading if you are good at recognizing patterns and interpreting candlesticks. The best picture of the market is when you look at different time periods together.
polarbear
Member
I have the same concerns as you do about next week. Futures up now (21:17CT, Bloomberg). I have a feeling we are going into unclear space, like we've been in for a long time now (a year, two years) with the two Bernanke puts making things unbelievably unpredictable for the naive. Once you comprehend the seriousness of naked manipulation, you are better prepared. It seems there's more of that to come, but with this wingnut Congress in the catbird seat, I could not predict anything they will do.
Look at how nonstandard everything got starting in May. But the situation was less volatile then. Now we have volatility. The most fickle market in history, I think. The one additional aspect of the manipulation is how nicely things are going in Europe right now. Like I said, it's been too quiet for too long from the kids' bedroom. That means trouble is afoot. Or not.
I think we're in a grinding somewhere, probably up, market with no clear indications in any way. It's like April 2010, the market just ground up and up and up, overbought all the way, because it just did. This market apparently doesn't need a reason to do anything. You'd think it had something to do with making money, with the big movers -- the hedge funds and investment banks -- driving things . . . I don't know anything right now. Yeah, bears' last stand indeed.
Look at how nonstandard everything got starting in May. But the situation was less volatile then. Now we have volatility. The most fickle market in history, I think. The one additional aspect of the manipulation is how nicely things are going in Europe right now. Like I said, it's been too quiet for too long from the kids' bedroom. That means trouble is afoot. Or not.
I think we're in a grinding somewhere, probably up, market with no clear indications in any way. It's like April 2010, the market just ground up and up and up, overbought all the way, because it just did. This market apparently doesn't need a reason to do anything. You'd think it had something to do with making money, with the big movers -- the hedge funds and investment banks -- driving things . . . I don't know anything right now. Yeah, bears' last stand indeed.
polarbear
Member
It looks like I'm wrong, the Greek banks are merging and the market's happy. The two links from coolhand on Europe point in opposite directions, it looks like the good direction (MIT guy) was chosen today and the smart people knew about it last night. The scary situation (UK Telegraph)-- political mayhem in Germany -- may be short-circuited by this good outcome. I don't know where this is leading. Things look quite rosy now in comparison to the previous chaos. It may work out. I give up on predicting Europe. Sometimes they actually get something right. I guess we'll find out more with the Sept.7 vote in the German parliament.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Despite the mini-rally, I have no buy signal at this time. The market has clearly busted out of the larger bullish falling wedge (dotted white lines) to the upside today, that I have been talking about over the last several weeks. Stall/reversal targets are now raised to SPX 1205 and 1225 area on a daily closing basis. Unsure on the wave count, but should clarify by tomorrow. Breakouts of large bullish falling wedges tend to back test, retracing to some support along the upper boundary (as I have shown). If this happens and is successful, this will be the buy zone for a rally to SPX 1260-1300. If it fails, then the SPX 1090 zone looks probable. Still holding to a September 2, 6 or 7 turn date for a position trade.
jkenjohnson
Active member
Consumer spending moved up and that is it - nothing to get all that excited about.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Market is way overbought in the very short term (VST). A pull back could happen at any time. Or the market could go test SPX 1225 area. Don't forget about Greece; now Finland wants colleteral for any more loans. And then there is the domino effect.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44315837
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44315837
Warrenlm
Well-known member
Since I must periodically demonstrate my obtuseness, I'll ask. I gather your "position trade" comments mean you will move into equity funds and plan to stay there long term regardless of ups and downs. Anything you can say about how long is longterm? Spring 2012 latest?
jkenjohnson
Active member
I hate that I missed the mini rally yesterday, but futures are down this morning, so who knows where we are going.
polarbear
Member
Re: #2107, buy zone, this looks like a maybe for tomorrow (8/31). The only caveat is the monthly jobs report Friday. That may be a downer that the market can digest anyway if the market is headed up, that is, the MM's are buying. It seems they care about jobs but only so much. Obviously, not directly, just as potential indicator of profits, so retail sales: if the consumers don't have jobs they can't buy. What do you think, Uptrend and jken, or anybody?
Oh yeah, and Europe, which seems to be in quiet mode for a while. One wonders when this thing with Finland and some other countries wanting a collateral arrangement will flare up. The German parliamentary vote on the bailout package has been delayed until Sept.29.
Oh yeah, and Europe, which seems to be in quiet mode for a while. One wonders when this thing with Finland and some other countries wanting a collateral arrangement will flare up. The German parliamentary vote on the bailout package has been delayed until Sept.29.
Uptrend
Well-known member
To clarify:
Day trade Buy and sell the same day. Don't hold overnight.
Swing trade Hold overnight and for a few days to a few weeks. Exit the trade when the trend breaks. Don't hold in a contra trend.
Position trade Hold overnight for several weeks to months. Hold through a contra trend.
Since I was expecting an ABC (A and C are up waves and B is a contra trend downwave) uptrend for primary wave II, once primary wave I (12345) down is completed, I was saying to consider holding trhough the B wave. The length of time for this ABC to develop should be 4-6 weeks.
However I am not real sure if wave 4 of primary wave I has completed or if we are in it now. I had previously thought wave 4 had ended, but based on the price action in the latest runup, I am not sure. Either wave 4 (if it is wave 4) turns over fairly soon, or we previously completed wave 4 and had a truncated wave 5. In that case we are already in the ABC relief rally. This rally when it begins, or if it has already began, should last 4-6 weeks and retrace about half of the drop or a little more. Anywhere between SPX 1260 and 1315 on the upside is fair game.
We need to find out what the jobs numbers in the ADP report tomorrow and the employment report on Friday do, if anything. The breakout of the bullish falling wedge I talked about in previous posts could be backtested anywhere between SPX 1080-1060. If tis test results in as higher low, we have a screamin buy and Mr. market should be in the ABC rally. This would be the last change to get on board. My original turn dates were September 2, 6 or 7. Under this scenario, wave 5 of primary wave I down would have ended abruptly.
My uptrend system is not calling a tradable buy yet, due to market internal weakness. That may change very soon.
Bear Case Low and declining volume for this mini-rally. Financials (XLF) failed to make new highs. Volatility (VIX) still above 30. Sentiment starting to turn bullish. Bond prices moving up. Gold moving up. Somewhat overbought. Still a chance for a fall to SPX 1090 -1110 to complete wave 5 of primary wave I.
Bull Case Support at SPX 1187 and now 1208. Breakout of bullish falling wedge. Gap and go on 5 minute charts. Bullish allignment of moving averages firming up on the charts. Island bullish reversal pattern on some charts (can see on EFA (for I fund) or COMPQ for example. Still a chance for a backtest and a higher low, and then off to the races. Or no backtest at all and just keep going up. In summary, IMO, need more volume to confirm the move. A lower high might do the trick.
jkenjohnson
Active member
I am personally waiting until Friday or later. I want to see what employment data is on Friday. We've come a long way very quickly and I think any negative news may initiate a sell off. My two cents worth.
Uptrend
Well-known member
I have no buy to report at this time. Market is under evaluation. Waves are not explaining themselves, so when in doubt hold cash.
Here is the 15 minute chart for Wednesday of SPX. We see a descending triangle forming later in the day. 1209 is support. This is where the rally stalled two weeks ago, when the level was resistance. Sitll looking for a lower high in the 1170-1180 area or a crash back to the 1100 area. Sentiment is still too bearish IMO for a major fall, as a contrarian principle. Bad reports for the last two days (consumer confidence and ADP private employment) and the market rallies-go figure. Declining volume is not confirming the rally. Strength is not confirming this rally. Small caps are weaker than the large caps.
For Europe, DAX and FTSE broke to the upside out of pennants. And EFA had an island reversal. The US dollar is still forming a broad base on the charts.
jpcavin
Well-known member
Uptrend, what do you look at to compare the two to see which one is weaker? I have no way of selecting between the two. Still learning.
Warrenlm
Well-known member
Wondering about the immediate market effect, if any, before and after Obama's address to the Congress and nation about the plan to shorten the mess we are in. Kernan on Squawk Box read an email from the WH that outlined the points of the speech to be delivered and it contained the same points, accusations, admonitions, guidance, etc. made in previous speeches. So perhaps no one buying and selling stocks expects anything from the speech and it will not have an effect on the market?
Uptrend
Well-known member
I use Wilshire 4500 index ($EMW) on stockcharts. Wilshire 5000 - SPX 500 is Wilshire 4500. Mid cap and small cap are in the index.
Uptrend
Well-known member
One could compare past speeches with next day market movement. If I remember correctly, they are mostly sell-offs. Would be a fun analysis.
jkenjohnson
Active member
We have a TV in our conference room at work that we watch during lunch. Every time I have seen Obama speak on FOX News during the day, the stock tickers, in the lower right hand corner, start going down. I have not checked to see if any of these days ended up or down.
jpcavin
Well-known member
OK, I think I got it. In layman's terms, just compare the RSI of both the S&P and W4500?
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