Uptrend's Account Talk

[Uptrend]

I second that, excellent work!! I'm glad I finally listened and avoided this part of the catastrophe. Let's see how things pan out, I'm a buyer at 975.

To be clear, I am not saying the market will make it to the SPX 975 area (in this wave), and that it is only a worst case type possibility. I do believe it may go lower than that into next year. The more probable outcome is to bottom near SPX 1090. This bottoming process should be a jerky up/down storm that may go on for a little while. Regardless of what you may read, no one really knows what the market will do, until it opens on the next trading day. All the TA in the world, only gives a probabilistic look at what may occur, and can be used to manage risk/reward.

Now on SPX chart, since the market played around the 1187 pivot last week Thursday/Friday as resistance, and Monday/Tuesday this week as support (because it got above it), it may well be backtested again in the near future. The market sold off through a series of levels today, but I am not ruling out a gap up next week and try and go back up there. A partial advance up would allow the sentiment to become more bullish and professional traders to sell into. But after a few days, the move, if it occurs, will fail. It is noteworthy that from the last SPX 1101 low, the market could only retrace 0.382% of wave 3. That is bearish and hints at lower lows for wave 5. Based on wave relationships the normal stopping point should be near SPX 1093, but may extend lower. I am just not sure at this point. Whatever the low, you won't want to buy right away, because it might fail with a lower low. There is usually, but not always, a sweet spot to get in. If I read Elliot wave theory correctly, the next move after the low will be a ABC relief rally and should be profitable.

 

[Warrenlm]

To be clear, I am not saying the market will make it to the SPX 975 area (in this wave), and that it is only a worst case type possibility. I do believe it may go lower than that into next year. The more probable outcome is to bottom near SPX 1090. This bottoming process should be a jerky up/down storm that may go on for a little while. Regardless of what you may read, no one really knows what the market will do, until it opens on the next trading day. All the TA in the world, only gives a probabilistic look at what may occur, and can be used to manage risk/reward.

Now on SPX chart, since the market played around the 1187 pivot last week Thursday/Friday as resistance, and Monday/Tuesday this week as support (because it got above it), it may well be backtested again in the near future. The market sold off through a series of levels today, but I am not ruling out a gap up next week and try and go back up there. A partial advance up would allow the sentiment to become more bullish and professional traders to sell into. But after a few days, the move, if it occurs, will fail. It is noteworthy that from the last SPX 1101 low, the market could only retrace 0.382% of wave 3. That is bearish and hints at lower lows for wave 5. Based on wave relationships the normal stopping point should be near SPX 1093, but may extend lower. I am just not sure at this point. Whatever the low, you won't want to buy right away, because it might fail with a lower low. There is usually, but not always, a sweet spot to get in. If I read Elliot wave theory correctly, the next move after the low will be a ABC relief rally and should be profitable.

For the one other guy besides me that is still in the slow class, let me see if I get this. Modest rise next week but then down again. Bottom around 1090 maybe. Then the ABC relief rally. Then going lower into next year when the low could be below 975.

If this is correct, the uninformed, nontrader, I-don't-want-to-look-at-my-301k-statement people who are in retirement should be moving to Treasuries in the brief ABC relief rally. How close did I get? BTW, thank you for every word you post, even when not comprehended!

 

[JamesE]

To be clear, I am not saying the market will make it to the SPX 975 area (in this wave), and that it is only a worst case type possibility. I do believe it may go lower than that into next year. The more probable outcome is to bottom near SPX 1090. This bottoming process should be a jerky up/down storm that may go on for a little while. Regardless of what you may read, no one really knows what the market will do, until it opens on the next trading day. All the TA in the world, only gives a probabilistic look at what may occur, and can be used to manage risk/reward.

Now on SPX chart, since the market played around the 1187 pivot last week Thursday/Friday as resistance, and Monday/Tuesday this week as support (because it got above it), it may well be backtested again in the near future. The market sold off through a series of levels today, but I am not ruling out a gap up next week and try and go back up there. A partial advance up would allow the sentiment to become more bullish and professional traders to sell into. But after a few days, the move, if it occurs, will fail. It is noteworthy that from the last SPX 1101 low, the market could only retrace 0.382% of wave 3. That is bearish and hints at lower lows for wave 5. Based on wave relationships the normal stopping point should be near SPX 1093, but may extend lower. I am just not sure at this point. Whatever the low, you won't want to buy right away, because it might fail with a lower low. There is usually, but not always, a sweet spot to get in. If I read Elliot wave theory correctly, the next move after the low will be a ABC relief rally and should be profitable.

Much appreciated, I am tempted to take a position after todays losses, but better wait right? That would be my last IFT but by the time the abc rally gets here I should have a fresh set. Just pondering.

 

[Appatite]

What is an abc relief rally?

 

[Warrenlm]

http://www.elliottwave.net/educational/basictenets/basics3.htm
I gather he meant the up, not the ABC correction some sites focus on.

 

[Uptrend]

For the one other guy besides me that is still in the slow class, let me see if I get this. Modest rise next week but then down again. Bottom around 1090 maybe. Then the ABC relief rally. Then going lower into next year when the low could be below 975.

If this is correct, the uninformed, nontrader, I-don't-want-to-look-at-my-301k-statement people who are in retirement should be moving to Treasuries in the brief ABC relief rally. How close did I get? BTW, thank you for every word you post, even when not comprehended!

Every new trading day brings new clues, and sometimes direction. So far the market appears to still be in wave 5. This can go on for some time, the wave can subdivide, or the wave can truncate abruptly. The normal wave relationship outcome should be near SPX 1090-1096 where the downwave ends. But, if this breaks, the next real stop is around SPX 1040 where there is solid support. IMO fear is not at a high enough level yet, nor has enough time elasped to end this slide. And remember, it is almost assured that there will be false starts. I will take a look at the closing data this weekend.

Forget the ABC classification. What I mean is that after wave 5 ends, there will be 3 main waves on an upward course, before the bear market continues. Waves 1 and 3 are strong upward waves, and 2 is a partial retracement. This will be a position trade. Due to limited IFT's you may want to hold through wave 2 and sell at the top of wave 3. If you have one IFT to give (which means you are already in the market when the month rolls over), you may want to swing trade wave 2; the partial retracement wave. Don't worry; I will post my moves.

 

[eccougar]

Thanks for your update Uptrend.

 

[Warrenlm]

Forget the ABC classification. What I mean is that after wave 5 ends, there will be 3 main waves on an upward course, before the bear market continues. Waves 1 and 3 are strong upward waves, and 2 is a partial retracement. This will be a position trade. Due to limited IFT's you may want to hold through wave 2 and sell at the top of wave 3. If you have one IFT to give (which means you are already in the market when the month rolls over), you may want to swing trade wave 2; the partial retracement wave. Don't worry; I will post my moves.

Elsewhere another member cited you as seeing a Sep 6-10 up move in the market. Is that correct and if so is that your thinking on wave 1 or wave 3 in the above quote?

 

[Uptrend]

Elsewhere another member cited you as seeing a Sep 6-10 up move in the market. Is that correct and if so is that your thinking on wave 1 or wave 3 in the above quote?

You have to start with wave one on a counter rally against the dominant trend (down).

I have completed my analysis and won't bore you with charts. Here is what I see:

1) We are in a bear market. Death Cross (200 going under 50 sma) on August 12 on SPX. Monthly should close below the 10 month ma (1282), and that is bearish. Don't listen to the goofs on CNBC.

2) No bottom yet for this primary wave down (we should be in wave 5 of primary wave 1). Volume should be increasing and is decreasing, VIX (fear gage) should be at a higher or at a equivalent high, and is not. Not much in the way of positive divergences on technical indicators with price. This tells me there is no capitulation yet. There is a very slight possibility of a truncated 5th wave and a reversal, but IMO, no, for the preceeding reasons. Folks in this camp will say that we are very oversold. True, but oversold can go on longer than you can stay sane.

3) Targets. A bullish falling wedge is in play. Target is near 1050 (breakouts are not real accurate for measurement purposes, so we'll say +/- 10 points). Will use EW to verify as we go along.

4) I am expecting a mini-false start (up) at any time. It should not go far, should fail and frustrate the bulls.

5) I am still holding to the September 6-7 turn date, unless I see other compelling information.

 

[nnuut]

Wave Smave, a frog can FART in Germany and change the tide of these perceived waves.:nuts:
​

 

[JTH]

Uptrend, can you post a picture of the 5-wave count, I'd like to see some timelines for reference.

 

[Uptrend]

Uptrend, can you post a picture of the 5-wave count, I'd like to see some timelines for reference.

 

[malyla]

View attachment 15074

Since the downtrend from top of wave 4 has not broken below the bottom of wave 3, could we still be in wave 4, but as an extended abc pattern like that seen in miniature in wave 3? This would allow your prediction of some uptrend this week with more to come Sept 6-7. Some on the fearless forecasters have proposed that we haven't ended a wave 4 yet, although I agree with you that we did hit the retracement levels for the top of wave 4. Just curious what you think about this discussion between wave 4/5 dynamics.

 

[Uptrend]

MALYLA:
Yes wave five (not four) should extend in time;and a partial retracement with minute waves. However,I don't expect to retrace further than halfway up the big red candle last Thursday or somewhere in the 1260s for a stop.

 

[JTH]

MALYLA:
Yes wave five (not four) should extend in time;and a partial retracement with minute waves. However,I don't expect to retrace further than halfway up the big red candle last Thursday or somewhere in the 1260s for a stop.

Uptrend, thanks for the visual

 

[Uptrend]

Bullish falling wedge in play (dotted lines). Look at the SPX charts; the larger scale view in the daily timeframe and the close-up in the 60 minute timeframe.

Points to anywhere from 1090 to 1040 for a possible breakout area. Breakouts happen near the ends of the wedges but not all the way. You can see my September 6-7 turn date is within the wedge and still in play. IMO don't buy while the market is within the wedge in the current wave 5. Cheers.

 

[malyla]

Bullish falling wedge in play (dotted lines). Look at the SPX charts; the larger scale view in the daily timeframe and the close-up in the 60 minute timeframe.

Points to anywhere from 1090 to 1040 for a possible breakout area. Breakouts happen near the ends of the wedges but not all the way. You can see my September 6-7 turn date is within the wedge and still in play. IMO don't buy while the market is within the wedge in the current wave 5. Cheers.

View attachment 15085View attachment 15086

Thanks Uptrend.
The completion of wave 5 should be the formation of the head for an inverse H&S pattern which will be great news for the future trend of the market (UP). Waiting to see the pattern

 

[Happy_Trails]

Uptrend,
At what point are you thinking of going back in, somewhere between 1040-1090?

 

[Uptrend]

Uptrend,
At what point are you thinking of going back in, somewhere between 1040-1090?

When the technicals improve. It is unkown where the market will reverse, but am expecting a lower low. SPX 1096 is the first level on the watch list, based on TA, but lower levels are in play, and are more likely IMHO.

So what was today all about? A one day wonder? In my post #2069 2 days ago I said: "I am expecting a mini-false start (up) at any time. It should not go far, should fail and frustrate the bulls." So, if you are in the market today, you should have sold or IMHO you will be cut down like a chainsaw is to a tree, a lawn mower is to grass, or a fly to a fly swatter. All this looks like to me is a pause in an ongoing wave 5.

Now refer to my second close-up SPX chart in post #2076 yesterday. Here is an update on the 60 minute chart. Todays price action was fully contained inside the wedge. Nothing to worry about. The dominant trend is down. If you are exposed, you might worry, otherwise cheers. You can see the little bullish falling wedge broke out, but the big one is controlling the price action. Now a close above SPX 1170, and outside the wedge is another matter. A lot of resistance is there also btw. But so far the price action has been predictable. At this point, I don;t believe those who say the downtrend has ended. This is not a downtrend friends, this is the bear. Wild upswings and downswings can happen, especially when the VIX gets in 40 country. That is 3% implied volatility. Am closely monitoring the situation from the war room.

 

[JamesE]

You can see the little bullish falling wedge broke out, but the big one is controlling the price action. Now a close above SPX 1170, and outside the wedge is another matter. A lot of resistance is there also btw. But so far the price action has been predictable. At this point, I don;t believe those who say the downtrend has ended. This is not a downtrend friends, this is the bear. Wild upswings and downswings can happen, especially when the VIX gets in 40 country. That is 3% implied volatility. Am closely monitoring the situation from the war room.

View attachment 15097

The money I saved bailing out last week is evaporating Uptrend, QUICKLY! What's your thoughts on the close today? I can't help thinking that helicopter Ben is going to calm the markets with something from his bag of tricks Friday.