Uptrend's Account Talk

[Happy_Trails]

I don't see 1050 as any level of relevence. I agree the 1015 are is major area of support, and I would imagine Uptrends Bear flag would only confirm it. I understand what you mean about the CNBC folks, but we just completed a huge H&S that everyone has known about. Truth be told it's anyone's game here, but the bears definitly have the ball under 1225. JMHO

I wish that I would have went out completely today but oh well. I don't trust any of the folks on CNBC - some are saying we go way down and some are saying we go way up. I will be studying a new system over the weekend which should make my buy and sell decisions more automatic and unemotional.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

I will be studying a new system over the weekend which should make my buy and sell decisions more automatic and unemotional.

Sharing is always nice :nuts:

 

[MaStA]

I wish that I would have went out completely today but oh well. I don't trust any of the folks on CNBC - some are saying we go way down and some are saying we go way up. I will be studying a new system over the weekend which should make my buy and sell decisions more automatic and unemotional.

If I may ask...where do people such as yourself get/find these "systems" you use to find buy/sell signals? Are these systems made in something like Microsoft Excel that you put data into and use functions to come up with a Buy or Sell? Where can I find systems that have already been made for me to use or are these Top Secret? Thank you!

 

[Appatite]

Well, I am sorry to see that both uptrend and JTH have exited the S fund. I am looking to reach 1210 before I pull out and go G fund. Then I can be happy with another pull back to 1015.

 

[jpcavin]

If I may ask...where do people such as yourself get/find these "systems" you use to find buy/sell signals? Are these systems made in something like Microsoft Excel that you put data into and use functions to come up with a Buy or Sell? Where can I find systems that have already been made for me to use or are these Top Secret? Thank you!

This video that Poolman posted is pretty good... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wpsdTapK5Q&feature=player_embedded

 

[Warrenlm]

Using the image shown above as the chart to discuss, where the upper line appears to predict the next drop, a slightly different line would let you believe the trend up will continue for some time longer. It always seems very subjective as to where the line should be drawn, and hence the interpretation is significantly affected.

 

[Khotso]

Possible SPX turn targets if deteriorating into a bear market: Up 1199 -1225 to end wave 4 (that we are in now), and then Down 1086 -1112 or worst case 1043 -1068 to end wave 5.

If a new base is forming for an uptrend, wave 1 should end between 1225 -1258, and then a pullback.

The fact that bond prices are up big again today concerns me (for inverse relationship for equities).

Take your pick. I am booking profits. Cheers

Dead on calls the past month Uptrend. Congratulations!

 

[Happy_Trails]

If I may ask...where do people such as yourself get/find these "systems" you use to find buy/sell signals? Are these systems made in something like Microsoft Excel that you put data into and use functions to come up with a Buy or Sell? Where can I find systems that have already been made for me to use or are these Top Secret? Thank you!

No secret - I am reading the book "Buy Don't Hold" by Les Masonsen. He updates his signals at least weekly, sooner if necessary on buydonthold.com. His dashboard is on a sell and those following his buy/sell signals were in cash for the carnage of the last few weeks. I am studying the book and his system more closely this weekend to see how applicable it is for TSP.

 

[Mista_Magee]

No secret - I am reading the book "Buy Don't Hold" by Les Masonsen. He updates his signals at least weekly, sooner if necessary on buydonthold.com. His dashboard is on a sell and those following his buy/sell signals were in cash for the carnage of the last few weeks. I am studying the book and his system more closely this weekend to see how applicable it is for TSP.

Thanks HT, good website. Keep us posted on your findings.

 

[Happy_Trails]

Thanks HT, good website. Keep us posted on your findings.

This system could easily be folllowed by TSPers. Our index funds aren't as liquid as ETFs but are close enough IMHO. Also, the system generates signals within our trading limits. Doesn't seem to be any whipsawing at all. The dashboard is being followed at dark-liquidity.com. Many other systems are also followed on that website as well. For anyone looking to do it yourself, would definitely recommend visiting dark-liquidity.com, buydonthold.com, and at least watching the signals to see how it does over time. Thumbs up from me.

 

[polarbear]

This is really good. Thank you.

 

[Uptrend]

A 0.382 fib retracement up from the lows on SPX has conmpleted today. The market should resume the downward course as soon as tomorrow, Tuesday. Or, it might climb a little higher to the 0.486 fib coming in at 1225. Anyway, I expect red candlesticks within 5 trading days that results in new lows when the wave 5 down completes.

I have determined that a signifricant turning point should develop on either September 6th or 7th. This might be the ABC relief rally after the primary wave one completes to the new lows around SPX 1090 or in a extreme case, near 975. The relief rally should go back up and test the head & shoulders neckline around 1270, the 200 sma currently at 1281 or even go as high as 1300. Be on board for this one.

The market seems inviting, but is really a bear. Don't get attacked.

 

[Uptrend]

I know there is (was) a little rally, but the dominant trend is still DOWN. If the futures hold up, the market will get below the 1187 support area tomorrow on SPX cash. Might gap down and open at 1175. Thursday and Friday 1187 acted as resistance and Monday and Tuesday it was support. But a break could be coming. To review, we had a huge move off the bottom last week, a sideways trade and now... the plunge? Or go test 1225 first? Flip a coin. My bias is down, but retain an open mind to trade what I see.

There are hints on the chart that the USD (US dollar) as tracked by UUP is bottoming. It has nearly matched a low back in May today. The hollow red candle today could indicate a reversal. I am keeping a close watch on it and believe the dollar is ready for a run. TA also shows some strength is forming. Dollar up and market down.

The 15.5 month cycle bottom is due near halloween. A major bottom and a witch. March 2009 (SPX 666), and July 2010 (SPX 1011) were the last bottoms in the cycle. The new cycle low number is???

Price, pattern, time. Believe it. For the short term, it is dangerours sailing. Don't sink.

 

[Appatite]

I'm with you uptrend.

We are going down.

 

[Uptrend]

Let's see -5% C S I. The stealing winds came early. Vix over 40. The speed and wide bars of this downwave hints of a SPX 975 landing. Especially when you line it up with my September 6-7 turn date.

 

[clester]

What's your expertise say about the F fund?

 

[Taller]

What's your expertise say about the F fund?

I wish I went into the F fund 2 weeks about

 

[Mcqlives]

Let's see -5% C S I. The stealing winds came early. Vix over 40. The speed and wide bars of this downwave hints of a SPX 975 landing. Especially when you line it up with my September 6-7 turn date.

Uptrend,

Pat yourself on the back, repeat, and repeat some more, my friend. You have called this whole wave perfectly over the past month. I hope that you are wrong about the 975 point, but my eyes are wide open sipping my beam and coke from the lily pad. Again, great calls and lets hope you can keep it up and make us all some money!

-mcq

 

[JamesE]

I second that, excellent work!! I'm glad I finally listened and avoided this part of the catastrophe. Let's see how things pan out, I'm a buyer at 975.

 

[Uptrend]

What's your expertise say about the F fund?

I don't exactly have the F fund in my trading system yet, but I can read charts and call buys/sells under certian conditions. I prefer to let cycles play out and only enter at the bottom. In this last cycle, I did not know what effect the US AAA downgrade would have on the bond market and even though I saw a buy, I did not post it. JTH saw it as well. I theorized that there could have been a negative reaction of how other countries view our debt. China claims to be worried, but keeps buying it. At the moment bonds are a safety play and may move up while equities move down, but happen to be overbought. That does not mean they can't go up some more, becasue they can. I am just saying, I am not a buyer at these overbought levels. Also watch inflation talk or data; as it can spook the bond market.