Uptrend's Account Talk

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My system bought today. Basically the shares are on sale. And it appears that the downwave has ended. SPX 1356-1101 = 255 points. Or 18.8% decline since July 25, 13 days ago. Of course the percentage is higher going back up because of a smaller capitalization (if you rode it down). Or 255/1101 = 23.16%.

From the 1370 high, the market is either in a correction with a ABC down that probably ended, or wave 3/5 of primary wave one down that has ended. Either way, the next move should be up. A 0.382 fib should be a minimum retracement to 1199, or 0.486 to 1218. We will watch as we go along. Today you can clearly see that the Wilshire 4500 (for S fund) was under accumulation with a higher low. And the SPX had a higher low most of the day and also appears to be under accumulation. The market could rock around from here sideways for a few more days with lower and higher closes and perhaps one more chance to get in. The 1100 area should provide support. It is a crap shoot just which entry to pick after the first weak hands sell-off.

Here is an interesting chart. It is the SPX and VIX. You can see it is a mirror. Today we have a higher low on SPX and a lower high on VIX. One is the tell for the other.

SPX_VIX_08_10_11.png
 
the market will gain over the next 5-6 wks with a reasonable target of 1250 and then re-test the lows and then new highs by the end of the yr. Same thing happened in '87 and '08.
 
IMO the market is at an inflection Point: It can't decide market direction with conflicting news and is jumping about, with perhaps lower liquidity and computer (flash trading) contributing.

IMO it is too risky to hold, and so I over rode my Uptrend System manually today for a sell (It has not been tested under bear market conditions and may need some adjustments).

Possible SPX turn targets if deteriorating into a bear market: Up 1199 -1225 to end wave 4 (that we are in now), and then Down 1086 -1112 or worst case 1043 -1068 to end wave 5.

If a new base is forming for an uptrend, wave 1 should end between 1225 -1258, and then a pullback.

The fact that bond prices are up big again today concerns me (for inverse relationship for equities).

Take your pick. I am booking profits. Cheers
 
Markets heading down early today... started at 2:10pm EST when it usually starts an hour later at 3:10-15pm EST... I wonder if it will bounce back or keep heading down like you are predicting. Will 1180 hold?
 
Unless I am not remembering correctly this looks like it could be the only time in the past two weeks or so that it will be a positive day two days in a row. Seems like we have been having a lot of negative days in a row or one day negative, one day positive, one day negative, etc. I'm not an expert, but could the trend be going back to more positive days than negative?
 
MaStA said:
Unless I am not remembering correctly this looks like it could be the only time in the past two weeks or so that it will be a positive day two days in a row. Seems like we have been having a lot of negative days in a row or one day negative, one day positive, one day negative, etc. I'm not an expert, but could the trend be going back to more positive days than negative?
Click to expand...
Normally yes...but the past see saw days were on huge basis point moves, not the relatively small moves seen today. What you see is the market moving in a channel (how wide depends on who you talk to or follow on here but I put it at 1172 - 1200 on the SPX within a broader channel of 1120 - 1200). What is also up to interpretation is which direction we get during the short/long terms. Way too much info out there to make a good analysis of stocks going into the weekend which is why you saw a lot of people not changing their positions. Those that did, IMHO, are rolling the dice with way too much risk (at least for my timeline).
 
Mcqlives said:
Normally yes...but the past see saw days were on huge basis point moves, not the relatively small moves seen today. What you see is the market moving in a channel (how wide depends on who you talk to or follow on here but I put it at 1172 - 1200 on the SPX within a broader channel of 1120 - 1200). What is also up to interpretation is which direction we get during the short/long terms. Way too much info out there to make a good analysis of stocks going into the weekend which is why you saw a lot of people not changing their positions. Those that did, IMHO, are rolling the dice with way too much risk (at least for my timeline).
Click to expand...

Well as I've posted in other threads I'm down 11% because I rode this entire train wreck. At this point I believe I am going to have to take risk to get that back otherwise I could miss out on a good rally that would put me closer to 0%. Obviously with that comes the risk that I can go even lower, but at this point oh well...eventually I will get my money back so I'm going to stick with it and see what happens.
 
This inflection point, where the market is balancing now, is scary. As I said today in post #2031 the market is at a tipping point (up or down). I also see on SPX a giant bear flag, which measures to SPX 1010. There is support there. This would wipe out all of QE2 since last summer. I don't know what to think, but will study the TA & charts this weekend. This is a 3x multiple of wave one down from the May highs from 1370 to 1258. Basically this is a mini-crash scenario (-26.2%). It's there, so I can't ignore it. IMO hold cash till the break is seen, one way or the other. Due to IFT rules, I am in cash till September, after a profitable 2 day trade.
 
Uptrend said:
This inflection point, where the market is balancing now, is scary. As I said today in post #2031 the market is at a tipping point (up or down). I also see on SPX a giant bear flag, which measures to SPX 1010. There is support there. This would wipe out all of QE2 since last summer. I don't know what to think, but will study the TA & charts this weekend. This is a 3x multiple of wave one down from the May highs from 1370 to 1258. Basically this is a mini-crash scenario (-26.2%). It's there, so I can't ignore it. IMO hold cash till the break is seen, one way or the other. Due to IFT rules, I am in cash till September, after a profitable 2 day trade.
Click to expand...

I too feel fortunate to have made an exit today.
 
A lot of talking heads on CNBC from all corners are talking about the likelihood of another severe drop, with 1050 S&P mentioned. Doesn't that always mean that there won't be one....even though everyone stands around waiting?
 
Warrenlm said:
A lot of talking heads on CNBC from all corners are talking about the likelihood of another severe drop, with 1050 S&P mentioned. Doesn't that always mean that there won't be one....even though everyone stands around waiting?
Click to expand...

I don't see 1050 as any level of relevence. I agree the 1015 are is major area of support, and I would imagine Uptrends Bear flag would only confirm it. I understand what you mean about the CNBC folks, but we just completed a huge H&S that everyone has known about. Truth be told it's anyone's game here, but the bears definitly have the ball under 1225. JMHO
 
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