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Uptrend's Account Talk
- Thread starter Uptrend
- Start date
Uptrend
Well-known member
The F fund can give pretty good gains at times when bond yields are declining and usually is good when the market is moving down (traders use it as a safety play). I ignored and did not post a buy signal on the last cycle price rise because I was uncertian what would happen to the F fund if the US gov defaulted or a Moody AAA downgrade. Turns out it was bullish. Gains in F are usually small (unlike this week), but sometimes steady for days. Losses can occur also and without warning and for no apparent reason. I prefer to hold cash (G) when the market is rapidly moving down and save the limited IFT for a real price rise play. If I was in the F fund I might take some loss after the cycle gain from entry while waiting for a equities entry into C, S or I. Since the funds don't move together, one must make choices to maximize gains within the TSP IFT framework. Just thoughts.
Uptrend
Well-known member
The market drop last week is pushing closer to the edge of a bear market, but is not there yet. The SPX 1167 intraday low met my expectation of a fibonacci retracement level for a 3rd wave down, with a slight overshoot. A possible scenario: since the low was intraday and not closing, the market could move sideways and again test that low and close near it. That is the scenario I would like to see. Here is why. Since wave two of this downtrend (goes up against the trend) was unusually high (a 0.886 fibonacci), I am thinking this 4th upwave will be weak and probably a 0.382 fib. That is 73 points and puts the top near SPX 1240. Many charts suggest that when you have a rapid momentum drop in a few days, that the 4th counter trend wave is weak. IMO, this is the probable tradeable space for wave 4 and may be all there is for August. Wave 5 should be similar to wave 1 (112 point decline) and put the low at SPX 1128 or a little higher if you choose a different fibonacci for wave 4. We will have to wait and see where wave 4 ends.
My system indicators are still ALL on SELL
My system indicators are still ALL on SELL
Uptrend
Well-known member
I have seen quite a few folks on the board trying to ride this downdraft out. Outside a trading system, why wouldn't you sell when you see failure of the 200 sma as in the SPX chart shown. It does not necessarily mean a bear market is in the works, but it is a way to preserve capital. The 200 sma is flattening at this time, which ups the probability of a forward bear market. If the 200 sma turns down, it would b e a telling indicator. If it turns up, the bull would be back on. Remember when we are trading the TSP active funds there are no stops; no automatic stop loss executions. Please don't be in denial! Trade what you see, not what you believe.
Lobo
Member
clester
Well-known member
Folks are afraid of missing the rebound and they don't like taking a loss. I have learned over the years that taking a loss
Isn't a bad thing. You should follow a plan and don't worry about saving trades or missing a upturn. Things can always get worse as we have seen. We will get a bounce but getting out and waiting for the dust to settle is the best advice.
Uptrend
Well-known member
The falling market has exceed normal fibonacci wave turning points. Today appears to be a very fast accelerating 5th wave to the downside. The SPX 1173 resistance just got blown out in about 30 minutes. This means on SPX that Friday must have been wave 4 up with a minimum 0.236 retracement. The 5th wave seems to be underway now and should be almost the same length as wave 1 for a new target of about SPX 1108. There is some support in this region. I believe that terrible wave 3 has ended. The markets fast acceleration to the downside with respect to time is very odd. The turning point still should be August 15 +/- two days. Then a counter trend rally should start that retraces between 0.382 and 0.618 of the drop. We will look at targets as we go along. I am very saddened that some on the tracker did not heed the signs and seek safety of the G fund in time.
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
Can you help me understand, so I don't feel this pain again, what were the signs?
Thanks !!
MaStA
Member
I just keep telling myself that there must be a u turn in sight...
I don't want to bail to the G fund after these losses to miss out on an 800 point rally, but at the same time I don't want to keep losing all of my limbs. So I don't know what I should do at this point...4
Typically when I jump ship after losing a lot, I end up missing the gains and screwing myself. I told myself a couple months ago that I would not sell unless it was above what I bought for so maybe I should stick to that and stay in.
weatherweenie
Well-known member
That's the thing about signs, you don't know the signs were right until after the fact!
jkenjohnson
Active member
I agree. Everbody knows what happens AFTER it happens.
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
I hope neither him or Big Ben say anything as their track record is dismal...
jkenjohnson
Active member
Did you bail today?
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
Can't afford to, but I wonder with all the news coming out today if we will hit the magic 20%, mark it a bear market, and continue down until the Dow hits 10k or even 9k... I don't know. I passed my pain threshold a long time ago and I am just running on hope right now...
Uptrend
Well-known member
See my post #1987 for the SPX. There were actually many others, and I just used the SPX price chart as an example. Many of the fundamentals under the market were falling apart; some since March.
Today the VIX (fear factor) has exceeded 40, and has not been there since May of 2010. So much for QE2. The washout should be over sometime next week during options expiration, and a rebound should began. IMO the first rebound attempt will be sold, so the market may move sideways for a bit and make either a double bottom or a higher low. We will have to wait and see what happens. The SPX 50/200 sma death cross is 11 points and closing. Looks like the cross could happen in as little as two weeks, or perhaps a touch and go to the upside? Some believe we are just having a deep correction and not entering a bear market. I an nuetral at the moment, and am watching chart activity and market fundamentals.
Uptrend
Well-known member
There is some support at SPX 1107 and then 1090. My fib projection was 1108 for the reversal. At SPX 1101 it is a 0.382 fib retracement of the entire bull market from SPX 666 to 1370. Interesting.
Nice one day pop on EFA (for I fund). After a steep drop the first rally attempt in the markets will get sold (high probability). We should either see a lower low, equivalent low, or sometimes a slightly higher low. I am voting for #1; a lower low coming in between 1090 to 1107. It should pan out by early next week.
Nice one day pop on EFA (for I fund). After a steep drop the first rally attempt in the markets will get sold (high probability). We should either see a lower low, equivalent low, or sometimes a slightly higher low. I am voting for #1; a lower low coming in between 1090 to 1107. It should pan out by early next week.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Thanks Uptrend. You know it's ok to use my name when you're refering to "don't be the guy that loses it all"
JTH I'm embarressed to say that I have made plenty of mistakes in the last four years. Not believing the bull market was one of them. It's a given we are going to falter; it's what we learn that is important for trading the longer haul. I didn't mean you specifically as I surveryed the tracker and saw a a boat load of other folks. Don't beat yourself up and give up analyzing the markets (we all see things slightly differently); the sun will come out soon enough. If we are going to go into a bear market, there will be volatility that we can profit from. Some of the berar rallies are trmendous. If this is just a correction, the market will swing back soon enough. I think the downswing is partly the realization by market participants that the US is broke, the big invincible US.
I am watching the days gains being wiped out the last few minutes. Perhaps the FOMC statement wasn't so hot? Oh my, the SPX is now printing negative! EFA is hanging in there but sliding.
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