Tsunami's Account Talk

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Bullitt said:
And $10,000 would only be a few months worth of gains wiped out so it sounds right. Looks like BTC is sitting on a 50% fib retracement right now. 61% is around $27,000, and after that, next stop would be $10,000.
Click to expand...

Sven has a target down to $21K.
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1395019868907483141/photo/1
Seems to me like there's growing fear today and this move down in many markets is just getting started. The optimism that the Fed will save us from any pain may be about to be proven wrong (again), IMO.

For small caps, about 23% down still to go?
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1394957862628167693

I'm quite content sitting on the lily pad for a while (late June?). Timing the bounces with the TSP's IFT rules is impossible.
 
Wow, I didn't know that the S fund was pushed around so much by GME and AMC.
https://twitter.com/Not_Jim_Cramer/status/1400848994985672705

My target for my current wild ride in the C&S funds is 4328 (a Peter Eliades software projection). 100 points to go, by 6/18 I think. Could be a white knuckles ride though.

I hope Mancini is right...this matches my target...
https://twitter.com/AdamMancini4/status/1400830649012002824

Elliott wave gurus are pointing much higher though, after a 2nd half of June pullback.
 
The 4328 projection has now been invalidated, confirming to me that an important top is in place. June OpEx week is very often where the peak is for June.
I ended my F fund trade today, hopefully locking in a small gain.

Master Wu has been masterful lately and I think he may have the current pattern basically right.
https://twitter.com/MasterPandaWu/with_replies
I had a huge pile of SPY and IWM put options that I bought yesterday then sold near the bottom this morning, I won't even say how much my Roth is up today, it's insane and nobody would believe me...
I plan to rebuy them this afternoon on a bounce up to near 4195-4200 hopefully.
 
There's been lots of talk lately about the weak market breadth, and how that could be signaling a market top. Actually, the opposite is true.
A good article on the correct way to think about market breadth.
The Fat Pitch: Using Breadth To Anticipate Market Inflection Points

If you expand this chart to look back at March 2020, wow, just 1% of stocks were above the 50 dma.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPXA50R&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=0&id=p87355418925

It seems that the current frothy market can get more bubblelicious by that indicator. S&P 500 to 5000 this fall? Dow 40,000? Maybe.
 
Like some others I moved 100% S today, knowing that pretty much every guru I follow is predicting a pullback in the short term.
In any case, IWM is finally breaking above the sideways channel it's been in all year. Chart #79 shows it well. https://stockcharts.com/public/1107832/tenpp/7
Looks like it's already breaking above the trend line if you connect the two highs for the year. It appears that small cap seasonality might be starting early this year.

I'm only hoping for 2% conservatively by Christmas, which would put me over 16%, double my annual goal...but wouldn't be surprised with much more if the mass hysteria can continue into 2023. Maybe as much as 8% for the S fund.
This sure feels/looks a lot like late 1999 to me. Normal TA and wave patterns are out the window when there's minimal fear of a decline.

Uh, yeah, this is a great time to go all in LOL....
https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1455179661378531342
 
I'm confused.
At this instant, U.S. midcaps (MDY) are up 0.83%, small caps (IWM) are up 0.63%, and even microcaps (IWC) are up about the same, +0.62%.
But DWCPF is at negative -0.35%.
Huh? What else is in the the S fund that could cause such a huge discrepancy?
 
I just looked up the components of the S fund, and from the Factsheet on this page...
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/i...completion-total-stock-market-index/#overview
...many of the top holdings are getting absolutely crushed, and the charts look terrible to me, especially SNOW which appears to be peaking.

I hate locking in a loss for this trade, and I hate going against seasonality, but I've moved to C since I feel more confident it should have at last some small additional gains by year-end.

Edit...really don't like what I'm seeing, moved to G.
 
Last edited:
Snow is still falling, and Zoom is still zooming (down)...

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ZM&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p34015295248

Thus the S fund is getting crushed by the overvalued tech stocks that comprise its top holdings.

If Slim is right I'd look for a wave B bounce to start soon, but then I think we'll see another decline (wave C) into early to mid-December.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kPZ7zND9OTY

Glad I got out. I see that Hussman and Peter Eliades are crying wolf again. One of these times they'll be right, but for now I'm expecting the bull to resume and possibly get as high as David Hunter's 5300 target by May.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc211120/ (wow, the most warnings in history!)
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmudNNXiLz_X-z4FzNkJ5rg

I have Eliades software and IWM currently has a projection down to 223.79 on an hourly chart. Looks like filling the gap from mid-October about $1 lower than that would be a good target.
So that's a target for me to possibly move back in. VXF has a projection down to 183.23, about 3% lower, not the end of the world (yet).
 
Like Exnavyew and others I reeeeeeeally wanted to get in yesterday, but couldn't since I'd spent my 2 IFTs for November.
I really wish the TSP would allow additional IFTs for a commission/fee, if it's really true that IFTs cost them money (which I doubt since it has to be all automated).
Not having an IFT will cost me over $10K today. Argh. But at least there's a good chance that I'll get back in well below where I got out on 11/22.

Anyway, my guess is today is a wave 1 of 1 up of the new rally that will extend into January, and tomorrow will bring a wave 2 down of this wave 1 up. So I'm holding off on getting in until tomorrow.
My target for today's wave 1 top is 4641 ES futures, which will be somewhere in the upper 4640s for SPX, near the trend line on Chart 52:
https://stockcharts.com/public/1107832/tenpp/5
I loaded up on SPY and IWM calls right at the close yesterday in my Roth IRA, so at least I've got that going today. I plan to sell when ES hits 4640.

Tomorrow's dip will be blamed on fear of the budget deadline and the November jobs report coming out on Friday.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it LOL, and I hope Santa doesn't get quarantined somewhere this month.
 
Tsunami said:
Like Exnavyew and others I reeeeeeeally wanted to get in yesterday, but couldn't since I'd spent my 2 IFTs for November.
I really wish the TSP would allow additional IFTs for a commission/fee, if it's really true that IFTs cost them money (which I doubt since it has to be all automated).
Not having an IFT will cost me over $10K today. Argh. But at least there's a good chance that I'll get back in well below where I got out on 11/22.
Click to expand...

Don't you hate that? The 1st of the month is usually one of the biggest market moving days yet we're frozen if we used our 2 the prior month. Frustrating!

A commission for additional moves would be perfect!
 
tsptalk said:
Don't you hate that? The 1st of the month is usually one of the biggest market moving days yet we're frozen if we used our 2 the prior month. Frustrating!

A commission for additional moves would be perfect!
Click to expand...

One advantage of being in stocks on the last day of the month is that you have 3 possible IFT's the following month (with the 3rd move to the G fund). Not counting negligible 1% moves of course.
 
Skorcher said:
One advantage of being in stocks on the last day of the month is that you have 3 possible IFT's the following month (with the 3rd move to the G fund). Not counting negligible 1% moves of course.
Click to expand...

Last I knew, the less than 1% moves now count towards your 2 IFT's per month.
 
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