Tsunami's Account Talk

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Quite a sobering video from Peter today. I've been watching his updates over the past year and today's was an important one. As always, time will tell...but the projections have been pretty accurate to this point.
Tsunami said:
So great to see Peter Eliades back at home finally. He's warning of "one of the most important tops of our lifetime", and if the chorus of other gurus I follow are correct I think he's right. It should be coming some time between late April and early June I think...short term, looks like one more drop this week, then comes the final hurrah rally to the top...

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmudNNXiLz_X-z4FzNkJ5rg

By the way, his software is great, I was one of the first subscribers last May and I love it...but you have to get a TradeStation account to get, and OMG is TradeStation awful!

I've been following this guy a while and he's been pretty good. His 4140 target for the top fits right into Eliades' software projection box.

https://twitter.com/masterpandawu
Click to expand...
 
Argh, for the second time in a year the TSP failed to implement my IFT yesterday. Hopefully the market will continue up Monday (and beyond) and it won't matter, but last time it cost me 1.92% when they failed to implement my IFT into stocks on 4/1/20.
That was no April Fools joke, and if they hadn't made that mistake a year ago, my 2020 return would have been 20.20% LOL.

The Twitterverse is awash with gurus predicting an imminent big drop. Maybe that fear will keep it heading higher as they cover their shorts. The S fund is sure not the place to be with rising interest rates though.
 
Sorry to here that, Tsunami. Did you implement it through the website or by phone? I'm wondering if it's a problem with the new TSP website.
 
Cactus said:
Sorry to here that, Tsunami. Did you implement it through the website or by phone? I'm wondering if it's a problem with the new TSP website.
Click to expand...

Through the website....I went ahead and entered a new IFT to move to F today. So it will get done 2 days later than I planned, but hopefully the S fund will eek out a tiny gain today.
I noticed that my PIP is now 40.25%. Wow that feels good as a retiree, but I'm sure many people have much higher PIPs right now since the comparison is year-over-year since 3/31/20.
I'm expecting the top won't come until perhaps early May, just being extra careful since there are warning signs and DeMark's 4139 target could get hit today. QQQ and the Dow still have a ways to do though.
I'm sure now that I'm out the S fund will finally break up from it's bullish wedge tomorrow.
 
Moving to G today to lock in a small and rare F fund gain. My actual YTD return is 0.26% higher than the autotracker shows due to the issue I had with my last IFT, which worked out in my favor thankfully.

I think this pullback in stocks could bottom today... but I have no IFT to get in.

Now it gets interesting. Some gurus expect a melt up to 4600 or higher (e.g., David Hunter), while others say the next rally is the last one before a big drop.
 
mmk119 said:
is there a suggested reason for the projected drop after the next rally?
Click to expand...

Well, the most extreme market valuations in history is reason enough for me to be careful...
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc210411/

Some Elliott wave practitioners are saying the final top is coming...
https://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/
...but the better wave counters that I trust more don't see a top until another year or two.

Sven has been warning more and more of the extreme valuations...and that over the last few months a whole series of speculative bubbles have been popping, like EV stocks, pot stocks, penny stocks, small cap stocks, no-income tech stocks in the ARK funds, the Wall Street Boys Gamestop fad stocks, and now possibly bitcoin and other cryptos have just popped. The last dominos will be the major stock index's and now we're seeing divergence in the Nasdaq Advance-Decline line, that's very important... this market is so much like the 2000 dot.com bubble it's eerie, and yet people are in total denial that there could be a problem.
https://northmantrader.com/2021/04/13/risk-free-3/

Some gurus like this guy have been zeroing in on May 2021 for a long time now...
https://twitter.com/masterpandawu
He sees a series of big drops starting soon.

A long-term T is ending on 4/28, but that doesn't mean the end of the world, just that a pullback or correction could come in May/June...
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYUD&p=D&yr=2&mn=3&dy=0&id=p85701692471&a=833940394

I have a list of 13 people predicting major tops this spring...some I've posted before like Gunner24.com...the most obscure/weird one to me is this...
https://thedanielcode.com/articles/speculation.pdf

Hunter expects a parabolic rise to 4700 soon, then an 80% drop...
https://palisadesradio.ca/david-hun...e-largest-global-financial-crisis-in-history/

Other than that, and a whole lot more, no worries! May is usually a VERY strong month in post-election years.
 
Tsunami said:
Way back over 11 years ago when I selected "Tsunami" as my ID, this is what I had in mind. It's finally getting near I'm afraid. Our banana republic is in big trouble...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cmk75nO67Ko

Early May or early June look like the best candidates for the top to me.
Click to expand...

Hard to say, for those who have been conservative have paid a dear price. My philosophy is to be in stocks until I am given a reason not to be in them.
 
Deflation is definitely the bigger risk than inflation.

I used to read Charles Hugh Smith after the 2008 crash. His prophecies of collapse in 2012-2014 never panned out, but then again QE3 was launched in 2013. He was calling for a crash during 2020 back in 2011. Below from the archives.

The real crisis has been pushed forward to 2020-2022. Nonetheless, 2015-2016 will offer those with cash tremendous profit opportunities.
Click to expand...

https://www.oftwominds.com/blogfeb11/2011-2016-2-11.html
 
The tumble in lumber did indeed prove to be a warning for the stock market.

In addition to Wu https://twitter.com/MasterPandaWu/with_replies
Cem Karson has been instrumental to me in staying on the right side of things. As he's been warning for weeks, "Vanna" has just left for the beach right on cue on 5/19, so the market has lost a lot of support today.
Looks like this current decline may stair-step down into quarter-end, which lines up with Sentient Trader's cycle projections. It's now short-the-rips time, which I've been doing in my Roth. My IWM puts are looking nice today.
https://twitter.com/jam_croissant/status/1394952227282984972

A bitcoin target of $29,000 that one of my subscription gurus has is rapidly approaching. I wonder if that will hold. Peter Eliades' price projection software says BTC could tumble clear down to $10,000. Seems like that would crash the entire crypto house of cards.
 
Tsunami said:
Peter Eliades' price projection software says BTC could tumble clear down to $10,000. Seems like that would crash the entire crypto house of cards.
Click to expand...

And $10,000 would only be a few months worth of gains wiped out so it sounds right. Looks like BTC is sitting on a 50% fib retracement right now. 61% is around $27,000, and after that, next stop would be $10,000.
 
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