Tsunami's Account Talk

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Woo hoo my retirement fight with OPM is finally over.

Since I first contacted OPM on 3/18/19 about their data entry error in my sick leave to be credited to my CSRS years (they gave me only 4 hours, it should have been 604 hours) it only took me 4 phone calls, 11 detailed letters with 4 attached documents proving I had 604 hours of sick leave when I left the govt. in 1990, and 2 formal letters with those same 4 documents...and over 17 months of waiting.

I received a letter yesterday saying they agree and have fixed the error and starting with the 10/1/20 benefit payment I'll be getting the correct amount, plus a one time retroactive chunk of money for the 20 months that have gone by with the error.
Of course they found a way to round down the new amount by $2, but close enough, and I'm finally done with OPM. I also now know now that my annuity consists of about 31% CSRS portion and 69% FERS portion. That's good to know to make sure they're giving the correct COLA percentage each year.
 
Wowza Tsunami, it's been awhile since I showed up here, had no idea of your OPM difficulties. Congratulations on your successful persistance and determination to get them sorted out. I'm making plans to submit retirement papers sometime soon, TBA for now. I have some matters to get sorted out with TSP officialdom first re post-retirement communications before I can pull the plug. It's complicated. I'm hoping to start getting matters uncomplicated this week. Resolution may require significant persistance on my part as well.
 
I needed just 0.99% on this trade to reach my 5.0% TSP goal for 2020. As of 2:48 pm I'd reached the goal and things were looking great for further gains tomorrow.

Then the rug pull came in the form of a tweet. Argh.
 
Yeah, that was something. I saw it was down and initially thought there was an update to the president's health, but saw the tweet and just rolled my eyes.
 
Tsunami said:
I needed just 0.99% on this trade to reach my 5.0% TSP goal for 2020. As of 2:48 pm I'd reached the goal and things were looking great for further gains tomorrow.

Then the rug pull came in the form of a tweet. Argh.
Click to expand...

From the penthouse to the outhouse in one fell swoop...;damnit
 
Like a few others I also booked my gains for this trade today. I've met my modest 5% goal for the year, currently sitting at +6.70% (auto-tracker return of -2.80% is woefully incorrect due to my late entry of an IFT back on March 11th, then the market fell 9.5% the next day, leaving the auto-tracker forever off by 9.5%).
I would have preferred waiting one more day since I think Monday could bring additional modest gains (though they could be wiped out by the close Monday), with a peak around 3505-3510 as my target, but being Columbus Day the TSP is closed and you can't implement a transfer...yet another reason to leave the TSP.

I continue to focus more on my three non-TSP accounts, all of which are up over 100% this year, including my Roth IRA, now up a ridiculous 132% this year. Boy what it difference it makes to be retired and have the time to babysit trades, especially during a pandemic LOL.

Do we have another stock market drop like this coming soon?!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQ-F6BGQH6A :sick:

I don't think so, but very possibly a drop down to 3180 or so by mid-November I think.
 
I think this sums up the current market beautifully...

"[FONT=&quot]In the context of extreme valuations, economic headwinds, and overbought extremes, the shift in market internals here is not a ‘buy signal’ or even a constructive ‘opportunity.’ It’s more like the cast of Jackass showing up on your driveway with skateboards and dynamite. You don’t need to join them, and you expect that it will end badly, but since you don’t know what they’ve got in mind, or how long they’ll hang around, it’s best not to stand directly in front of them."

[/FONT]https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc201016/
 
Hmm. My last edition of FEDSmith reported both federal retirees and social security recipients will receive a 2021 COLA of 1.3%.
 
ravensfan said:
Hmm. My last edition of FEDSmith reported both federal retirees and social security recipients will receive a 2021 COLA of 1.3%.
Click to expand...

Yep, 1.3% is right. I posted that too quick before I got the facts straight. Meanwhile I read that our health insurance premiums are going up 4.9% on average for 2021, so that will eat up the COLA.
Same as it ever was.
 
Yeah, I am in a little bit of a different boat this year as I will be turning 65 in January and it is mandatory that I take Medicare parts A and B since I am under Tricare. My premium will go from $25. per month for Tricare Prime to whatever the new rate for Medicare will be, currently $144.50. I will not be surprised if it ends up over $150.00 for Medicare. But the good news is that Tricare for life becomes my secondary insurance and covers whatever Medicare does not and there is no charge for Tricare for life. This means I will not have a need for Medicare supplement or prescription coverage, but will be keeping my FedVip for dental.
 
OK, I just discovered that the 2021 rates are out, and have been for a week...boy retirees are kept out of the loop (or I was just asleep for the last week).
We've had BCBS Blue Focus for the last 2 years and I highly recommend that option for healthy folks. For next year though my wife needs an Rx that's not covered by Blue Focus, and would cost a crazy $900 per month!...so we're switching back to the Basic plan that I had for decades. That will be $162/month more, ouch...but I planned to switch back to the Basic option at age 65 anyway since that's the one to get to go with Medicare Part B (Blue Focus does not have the partial premium reimbursement when you get Part B). I'll miss the $10 doctor copays though. I'm surprised more people don't go with Blue Focus.

https://www.fepblue.org/benefit-plans/medicare/-/media/PDFs/Other/MRAQRG2020_interactive.pdf
 
How about a little Halloween fright?...

Here's an image from a recent Carl Swenlin video where he was discussing his experience with the 1987 crash:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjkB_OaFe74&feature=youtu.be (he starts this segment at about the 9:30 mark)

1987 Crash Analogy.jpg

OK, well now look at the last 7 months in the S&P 500. Hmm, there's sure a lot of similarities there.
If the pattern repeats we'd see about a 30% drop over the next week (circuit breakers would limit the panic to less than that), maybe after a one-day bounce on Monday or election day.... Boo! :bigeyes:

1987 Crash Analogy - 2020.JPG
 
1987 also kicked off one heck of bull run. The high was regained in two years. The lows will never be seen again. Kind of reminds me of what happened in March as far as the speed of it.
 
Lesson: Don't be in market when the 20EMA is below 50EMA! :rolleyes:


Tsunami said:
How about a little Halloween fright?...

Here's an image from a recent Carl Swenlin video where he was discussing his experience with the 1987 crash:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sjkB_OaFe74&feature=youtu.be (he starts this segment at about the 9:30 mark)

View attachment 47576

OK, well now look at the last 7 months in the S&P 500. Hmm, there's sure a lot of similarities there.
If the pattern repeats we'd see about a 30% drop over the next week (circuit breakers would limit the panic to less than that), maybe after a one-day bounce on Monday or election day.... Boo! :bigeyes:

View attachment 47577
Click to expand...
 
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