Tsunami's Account Talk

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Tsunami said:
No such luck. Forgetting to click the "confirm" button cost me over $6K. At least I got it right on my wife's account, I would have gotten a beating otherwise. :laugh:
Looks to me like the market is set up to continue the rally tomorrow. This morning was an awful UE weekly claims report, much worse than expected...tomorrow we could get the same reaction to the monthly report...once bad news is behind the market people buy, plus there will be improving coronavirus news over the weekend. That's my theory anyway and I'm sticking to it, 100%, literally. Gulp. :sick:

Peter Eliades' projections software has been masterful since I started watching his videos last September, and I'm hoping it's right again and this rally continues up to the 2800s next week.
After that all bets are off and a drop to 1800 or even lower wouldn't surprise me at all.

https://www.youtube.com/c/stockmarketcycles

P.S. - Here's the main chart on oil that has me bullish on select oil stocks and ETFs like ERX, for the short term anyway... to me this pattern looks like a long term bottom and next is a long term up move on oil...which might mean inflation finally?
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=W&yr=17&mn=0&dy=0&id=p08205351372&a=378205075
Click to expand...


I started watching Peter's channel after your post and I was wondering if you were going to jump back out today, looks like a good move on your part. The next major move could be interesting. I decided to hold off last Friday from going into equities, only because it's so damn early in the month, didn't want to burn the IFTs so early. I'll be curious to see how long Peter keeps posting updates before shutting it down, he's been very informative.
 
Nordic said:
I started watching Peter's channel after your post and I was wondering if you were going to jump back out today, looks like a good move on your part. The next major move could be interesting. I decided to hold off last Friday from going into equities, only because it's so damn early in the month, didn't want to burn the IFTs so early. I'll be curious to see how long Peter keeps posting updates before shutting it down, he's been very informative.
Click to expand...

Yep, I got out today based on the S&P 500 getting close to Peter's 2722 target, along with my guess on the Elliott wave pattern which seems to me that wave C up of the rally is nearing the end. Looks like I was a day early in getting out though, thanks to the dastardly 12 noon IFT deadline. Now that I'm in the G fund purgatory until May 1st, this would be a a good time for me to move my TSP to an IRA, so I'm mulling that over again. As of this evening I'm now at -4.19% for the year in my TSP, but +48% in my Roth IRA, so that's also nudging me toward escaping the TSP's rules.

Here's some good stuff from Jay Kaeppel. In the opening segment he fails to point out that the E in the P/E ration is dropping like a rock, but otherwise lots of good info here.
https://tinyurl.com/v5gzlbo
 
I went 100% C yesterday, but am moving to 100% S today. Should have done that yesterday, oh well. The S fund at the moment is about 7.7% from the 200dma, while the C fund is only 3% from it, so the S fund is making up for lost time and really ripping toward that target. Got all my fingers and toes crossed it gets there next week. I need only about 3% more to get to green for the year.

McClellan's latest agrees that the uptrend should continue, if I'm reading this right (the very last sentence).
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/investors_fleeing_out_of_spy/
I do expect a sharp pullback once this current rally exhausts though, maybe bottoming in early June, fitting the pattern of lows every 2 two months on the first day of even numbered months. That pattern started last June and is still intact.
 
Tsunami said:
I went 100% C yesterday, but am moving to 100% S today. Should have done that yesterday, oh well. The S fund at the moment is about 7.7% from the 200dma, while the C fund is only 3% from it, so the S fund is making up for lost time and really ripping toward that target. Got all my fingers and toes crossed it gets there next week. I need only about 3% more to get to green for the year.
Click to expand...

Steady as she goes. Today is a wave 4 and there could be one more drop down to 2930ish today.
The S fund is now about 5.6% below the 200 sma, the S&P just 1%. I'm planning to escape to G somewhere between 3000 and 3060, so now the trick will be trying to time it to the right day this week.
I was happy to see that I got my wife's TSP back into the green for 2020 as of the close yesterday, and I'm now at -2.21%, edging closer. Go S fund!

Our 25th anniversary is coming up next week. I don't think we'll be going out, somehow this doesn't seem like an appealing way to celebrate...
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1262706393607536642
 
FAAM said:
HAPPY WEDDING ANNIVERSARY! Thx for posting... & always... GO COUGS!
Click to expand...

FAAM,

My Florida vanity license plate uses the Florida Panther as the background, with the plate number "WSU 82". In New Mexico the plate was WAZZU82. :D Go Cougs!

Yesterday brought back memories, 40 years since Mt. St. Helens blew. My buddies and I were down at Boyer Park on the Snake river preparing for a day of girl watching when a cop came by with loudspeakers blaring..."Get the hell back to campus, fast!"...

Here's a photo I took out my dorm window at noon that day. Then that last sliver of light disappeared and it was pitch black with ash falling for the rest of the day and night.
I still have a flask full of ash I scraped off my car, which I'd unfortunately left the window cracked open on...what a mess! The second photo is of the ash swirling around the next day...looked like snow...boy there were some great End of the World parties the rest of that week!
3rd photo was 2 years later when I drove up there after the road to Johnston Ridge first opened up. You can see a bit of what was left of Spirit Lake there...Harry Truman was buried in the avalanche of rock and debris there...
https://www.sciencehistory.org/distillations/harry-versus-the-volcano


1980-06-33 - Mt St Helens ash cloud over Pullman.jpg
1980-06-35 - Ash swirls over WSU, May 19, 1980.jpg
1982-08-19 - Mt St Helens and Spirit Lake.jpg
 
THX for the Pix!! Never got the vanity-plates, if so I shoulda used same as yours, though I enjoyed WAZZU so much I did the 5-yr plan & graduated '83 (BSME, Minor in Mil. Sci.).
I don't have any Pix of that event in Pullman, so I sure appreciate & will save yours. Was "doing homework" in my Nez-Pierce apartment that sunny Sunday, window was Northward & so didn't see it, didn't have TV/radio on; a girlfriend called me saying the Mtn. blew & I thought she was joking - she said look out West. I did and saw the Black-eyebrow on horizon about 10am or so. I recall day/night line directly overhead, & an hour or so later, your photo of tiny sun arch in East and blackness everywhere else about an hour after that. I drove to work at the "Rotunda" for dinner shift, on way home ash was starting to cause problems. Next day, exactly like your photo; oh, and yes - excuse to Pahtay. I still have my little bowl of that ash in a box upstairs somewhere too. Yes, the Mt. St. Helens Nat'l Park/Monument is breath-taking. --Thanks again!
 
I decided to bank my May gains today, even though I expect just another dip tomorrow then further gains to above 3000. The easy gains have been made I think.
 
Here I am just 0.1% away from going green for the year, but are things about to fall apart?

The put-call ratio is reaching rare extremes of complacency and is worrisome...

Extreme Complacency.jpg
 
A followup to that chart I posted a few days ago...

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/inv...six-year-low-should-we-be-concerned--15340316

It's very tempting to lock in gains today now that I'm back in the green for 2020 (+1.84% as of 6/4/20), but greed might keep me in since the Elliott wave guys suggest the irrational buying can continue another week or two.
Will likely have to endure a dip early next week though, as much as 2%, but then be rewarded for holding with one last big rally before the bears get off the couch and start their summertime gorging.

Bear.JPG
 
I hope you're correct saying there could be a bit of a drop early next week - to give some of us a lower point to consider getting in off the Lilly-pad; if I tried to jump on the train today it seems a complete FOMO move at highs. THX for posting and good luck to us all.
 
I'm closing my eyes and staying in, in large part since once I get out I'm locked out until July. If I had two IFTs I might do differently. Today seems like a total capitulation of the bears, but momentum should carry higher into next week.
In the Kendall Report today he mentioned that if the S&P closes over 3160 (?, I forgot the number he said) that there could be some sort of major signal that would negate his bearish view, plus my Elliott wave guys are getting more and more bullish...and Peter Eliades' projection software, which I now subscribe to on TradeStation and I like it....those targets are getting closer and beckon at 3300 and higher.

Also, the NYAD is hitting record highs today. That suggests the index's will soon follow. https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$NYAD

Greed is good https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVxYOQS6ggk
 
Tsunami said:
In the Kendall Report today he mentioned that if the S&P closes over 3160 (?, I forgot the number he said) that there could be some sort of major signal that would negate his bearish view,
Click to expand...

Yes, 3160 is the number. I take notes while listening to him and wrote this down,

"Believes we are within 100 pts (S&P) before a 'big reversal to the downside.'" Then I wrote, "Question this if the S&P closes above 3160 today."

Then I wrote: "S&P 3197-3237 is the target range for the market rollover to commence. But Mr. Kendall does not know what that trigger will be. He expects all of this to play out over the next several weeks, or sooner."

If this rally holds, it will be interesting to see what he says on Sunday.
 
Rod said:
Yes, 3160 is the number. I take notes while listening to him and wrote this down,

"Believes we are within 100 pts (S&P) before a 'big reversal to the downside.'" Then I wrote, "Question this if the S&P closes above 3160 today."

Then I wrote: "S&P 3197-3237 is the target range for the market rollover to commence. But Mr. Kendall does not know what that trigger will be. He expects all of this to play out over the next several weeks, or sooner."

If this rally holds, it will be interesting to see what he says on Sunday.
Click to expand...
By “rollover”....what do you mean? A downturn.
 
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