Tsunami's Account Talk

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Wow, hard to believe the futures are only down 2% with the current headline...Mnuchin says unemployment could hit 20% and the economic hit could be WORSE than 2008.
Welcome to this century's great depression. I can't wait until the monetary crisis portion of it hits. :(

What's hitting now is the reason I came up with the name "Tsunami" in the first place, and this is starting to look like the real thing.
 
blueroadster said:
Update...It actually took the TSP 5 days to process my request. The withdrawal form was faxed to them on Monday 09 March and there was an update this afternoon after logging in to TSP indicating that my request has now been processed. I did not have much in my account so I transferred 75% to an IRA (check to be issued and mailed to IRA custodian) and 25% as withdrawal for funds to be processed via EFT.

View attachment 45723

View attachment 45724
Click to expand...

Another update...After a dispursement is processed by the TSP, there are additional days to tack on for receipt of funds to other accounts (3-5 business days for ETF and 10 business days for a check).

Request2.jpg

Request3.jpg​
 
Tsunami said:
Wow, hard to believe the futures are only down 2% with the current headline...Mnuchin says unemployment could hit 20% and the economic hit could be WORSE than 2008.
Welcome to this century's great depression. I can't wait until the monetary crisis portion of it hits. :(

What's hitting now is the reason I came up with the name "Tsunami" in the first place, and this is starting to look like the real thing.
Click to expand...

Unfortunately and IMHO, there will be a lot more blood in the streets before the markets start to find a bottom. Too many "experts" out there along with too many people not "understanding/accepting" the new norms that we all are having to adjust.
 
For anyone that missed it there was a great interview of Ray Dalio on CNBC this morning. In my opinion (hope I'm wrong and the government is able to inflate the bubble one more time) I have to agree with Ray that we’re in the beginning phase of a 1929/1930s type of deflationary depression. There should be a big bounce soon, maybe as soon as Congress passes a massive bailout bill in the next few days and the coronavirus news starts to turn more positive, but that will only be a trading opportunity in my opinion. Here’s a piece of the interview (I wish they’d post it all, maybe it will be on YouTube), and a link to where you can download Ray’s free Big Debt Crisis book. I’m currently halfway through his “Principles” book which is really outstanding.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/inv...-us-from-coronavirus-will-top-4-trillion.html

https://www.bridgewater.com/big-debt-crises/

I think we’re very fortunate to have the G fund to hibernate in. The F fund will not be the place to hide out once interest rates start rising in earnest.
 
Tsunami said:
For anyone that missed it there was a great interview of Ray Dalio on CNBC this morning. In my opinion (hope I'm wrong and the government is able to inflate the bubble one more time) I have to agree with Ray that we’re in the beginning phase of a 1929/1930s type of deflationary depression. There should be a big bounce soon, maybe as soon as Congress passes a massive bailout bill in the next few days and the coronavirus news starts to turn more positive, but that will only be a trading opportunity in my opinion. Here’s a piece of the interview (I wish they’d post it all, maybe it will be on YouTube), and a link to where you can download Ray’s free Big Debt Crisis book. I’m currently halfway through his “Principles” book which is really outstanding.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/inv...-us-from-coronavirus-will-top-4-trillion.html

https://www.bridgewater.com/big-debt-crises/

I think we’re very fortunate to have the G fund to hibernate in. The F fund will not be the place to hide out once interest rates start rising in earnest.
Click to expand...

I've been discussing that with my friends: headed for a depression.
 
Tsunami said:
For anyone that missed it there was a great interview of Ray Dalio on CNBC this morning. In my opinion (hope I'm wrong and the government is able to inflate the bubble one more time) I have to agree with Ray that we’re in the beginning phase of a 1929/1930s type of deflationary depression. There should be a big bounce soon, maybe as soon as Congress passes a massive bailout bill in the next few days and the coronavirus news starts to turn more positive, but that will only be a trading opportunity in my opinion. Here’s a piece of the interview (I wish they’d post it all, maybe it will be on YouTube), and a link to where you can download Ray’s free Big Debt Crisis book. I’m currently halfway through his “Principles” book which is really outstanding.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/inv...-us-from-coronavirus-will-top-4-trillion.html

https://www.bridgewater.com/big-debt-crises/

I think we’re very fortunate to have the G fund to hibernate in. The F fund will not be the place to hide out once interest rates start rising in earnest.
Click to expand...

I'm also about halfway through Principles and love it.
 
Not to be outdone by California, it sounds like Florida is close to issuing a statewide stay-at-home order, or if not statewide it will be in the most populous counties on Monday.

I've finished Ray Dalio's "Principles", next book up to the top of my pile is "The Storm Before the Calm"....I'd say we're in the storm now.

Some other weekend reading...hard to believe the market could actually accelerate lower for the next 2 weeks per Hurst cycles projections...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VUpHUxlDs6w

Very rare to see Ciovacco so negative...
https://www.ccmmarketmodel.com/shor...rkets-say-lehman-moment-may-still-be-in-store

When BBB rated bonds get downgraded I don't want to be in stocks...
https://unherd.com/2020/03/covid-19-has-exposed-our-financial-fragility/

I haven't watched this yet but never miss a Gordon T. Long video and he warned this collapse was coming long before it happened...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=594yE4KuMRo
 
Call me crazy but the market is behaving just as expected lately in Elliott wave terms and I put one put back in today.
I went 25% C and 25% I, since the I fund is following seasonality perfectly and in fact was positive for the 2nd half of March.

Quarter-end account status... I finished March at -8.38% (the tracker is wrong since I was a day late inputting my exit on 3/11 and 3/12 happened to be a horrific day that I escaped in my actual account, but not in the autotracker)

If things still look like I expect tomorrow (this pullback should bottom in the upper 2300s to mid-2400s today or tomorrow) I will put the other foot in and hope to ride a 2nd leg of the rally up to 2800ish and get back to green for 2020.

Some Elliott wave guys are super bullish and think that the market is heading to record highs from here. I can't swallow that pill yet, but I suppose it's possible with all the helicopter money.
This is a smart dude and he thinks that could happen as well...

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4335218-no-longer-melt-up-why-covidminus-19-bubble-is-coming

Awww, very cool, I just snapped a photo of a baby Sandhill Crane out my office window... looks like it must have just hatched within the last day or two...blurry since it's about 120 feet away across the pond...meanwhile look what's lurking in the pond hoping it gets closer...

Chick.jpg
Chick and mom.jpg
Gator.jpg
 
Whipsaw said:
Thanks, Tsunami. So, you're thinking this is as close to a retest of the lows as we're going to get?
Click to expand...

I don't know since one can never predict what happens after 12 noon. So thanks to the dumb 12 noon IFT cuttoff I went half in.
This pullback (if that's all it is) could last into Friday. Since so many people are expecting a "retest" of the low I suspect it won't get really close to the low. A 50% pullback to 2417ish could be all the algo's allow.
Ms. Market doesn't like to be cooperative of what the masses expect to see.
 
Not sure what the TSP's issue is but they screwed me over last night and did not process my IFT to go 25% C and 25% I fund...but they did process the same IFT for my wife's TSP that I'd entered. Her TSP is only down -7.11% for 2020 and she's benefiting from today's gains, if it holds, but I'm not, argh. I've double and triple checked that they do have today's IFT's pending for both of our accounts to go 50% C and 50% I fund though. I'm gambling that the S&P will rally further to 2800 or a bit higher next week.
Seems like they're daring me to leave the TSP. ;damnit

The price of regular gas is down to $1.699 at our local Costco. Crazy.
Oil has real value, so judging from this long term oil chart I think this is an amazing buying opportunity for select oil sector stocks...ERX is very tempting and is up 15% today.

http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/download/file.php?id=125561&mode=view
 
That's not good. Was your IFT done close to the deadline, or did they outright not process it at all?
 
I put in the IFTs for both my account and my wife's account at around 9 am yesterday, way before the deadline.
I just called TSP, and they checked my web log and concluded that this time I'd apparently forgotten to click the confirmation button at the bottom, so of course it didn't go through.
With the way the market is now falling this afternoon I may end up being happy about that though since the gains are almost gone.
One tidbit from my call, the customer service person said she could actually change my IFT for today if I wanted to on the phone, even though it's well past the 12 noon deadline. I didn't know you could do that. Hmm.
 
Tsunami said:
Not sure what the TSP's issue is but they screwed me over last night and did not process my IFT to go 25% C and 25% I fund...but they did process the same IFT for my wife's TSP that I'd entered. Her TSP is only down -7.11% for 2020 and she's benefiting from today's gains, if it holds, but I'm not, argh. I've double and triple checked that they do have today's IFT's pending for both of our accounts to go 50% C and 50% I fund though. I'm gambling that the S&P will rally further to 2800 or a bit higher next week.
Seems like they're daring me to leave the TSP. ;damnit

The price of regular gas is down to $1.699 at our local Costco. Crazy.
Oil has real value, so judging from this long term oil chart I think this is an amazing buying opportunity for select oil sector stocks...ERX is very tempting and is up 15% today.

http://bbs.cobrasmarketview.com/download/file.php?id=125561&mode=view
Click to expand...

By the closing bell, you just might think it was a blessing in disguise.
 
Rod said:
By the closing bell, you just might think it was a blessing in disguise.
Click to expand...

No such luck. Forgetting to click the "confirm" button cost me over $6K. At least I got it right on my wife's account, I would have gotten a beating otherwise. :laugh:
Looks to me like the market is set up to continue the rally tomorrow. This morning was an awful UE weekly claims report, much worse than expected...tomorrow we could get the same reaction to the monthly report...once bad news is behind the market people buy, plus there will be improving coronavirus news over the weekend. That's my theory anyway and I'm sticking to it, 100%, literally. Gulp. :sick:

Peter Eliades' projections software has been masterful since I started watching his videos last September, and I'm hoping it's right again and this rally continues up to the 2800s next week.
After that all bets are off and a drop to 1800 or even lower wouldn't surprise me at all.

https://www.youtube.com/c/stockmarketcycles

P.S. - Here's the main chart on oil that has me bullish on select oil stocks and ETFs like ERX, for the short term anyway... to me this pattern looks like a long term bottom and next is a long term up move on oil...which might mean inflation finally?
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=W&yr=17&mn=0&dy=0&id=p08205351372&a=378205075
 
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