Tsunami's Account Talk

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I see some brave souls moved into stocks today. That should work for at least a strong bounce for 1 to 3 days. I would have gotten in today if I had an IFT. Being out of IFTs, I'm hoping for a wave B bounce, then a wave C fall down to 3150 or so next week. I almost decided to move from F to G today and lock in the nice gains there, but the Elliott wave pattern for AGG and TLT shows there should be a wave 4 then another drop in rates that coincides with the bottom in stocks.
I've been managing my wife's TSP as well and she's at +6.84% as of now....so I guess I'm jealous and need to make a bold move to catch up to myself.

I don't see any reason for this to be "the" bull market top yet, so if I was still in stocks I'd hang on at this point. But to me the market has been a screaming sell lately since it was at record overbought levels by some measures, such as the ratio of market cap to GDP, frequently posted by Sven Henrich. https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader The coronavirus is providing a needed excuse for a cool off.
I wonder if the Fed might panic and do an emergency rate cut soon. The bond market is pretty much forcing them to do it.
I expected I'd be able to start our mortgage refi process today, but our credit union is stubborn and still hasn't cut rates today. Maybe tomorrow.
 
Whipsaw said:
Tsunami, definitely keep us brave souls posted on bounce and wave targets!
Click to expand...

That’s easy assuming this will be a typical ABC 3-wave pullback. But it could end up being a sideways triangle as well, in which case the low today might already be the bottom of the pullback.
If it’s a simple 3 wave pullback, and today’s low was the bottom of wave A, then:

3393.52 (top) – 3214.65 (today’s low, if it holds) = 178.87 points

Possible targets for the bounce…
38.2% = 3282.98
50% = 3304.09
61.8% = 3325.19

Then once the top is in, just subtract the 178.87 points from that for the target for the Wave C bottom, if wave C equals wave A. It’s rarely that easy though.

It's very possible though that today was the bottom, just no way to know until after the fact.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1230155765349928960
 
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Seems like the market should be reaching at least a short-term bottom, but I've never been very good at catching knives so maybe it's a good thing I don't have an IFT. I did move to G today though, thinking that maybe the bond rally is on it's last fumes.

A new cheery commentary by Hussman is out. It's always good to keep the big picture in mind and I think his long-term views will be correct, unfortunately. The party is almost over, maybe one more rally to new highs?

"The menu of estimated prospective returns available to passive, long-term investors is easily the worst in history. This is the consequence that years of Fed-induced yield-seeking speculation have produced."

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc200225/
 
If there's a head-and-shoulders pattern forming in the SPY, then there's an opportunity right around the corner. Of course, that means the real drop may be on the horizon.
 
I am new to the group. 51 years with 400k in TSP. Just joined TSPtalk in December and started reading up on all the great information being shared. I came in with my investments spread over C, S, I, & F. Then after studying the posts I moved everything to 50% C + 50% S at the first of the year. I was getting concerned about the reports last week and lucked up. I moved all my investments to the F fund last Wednesday. So that shot me up the reader board to 16th place. Mostly out of luck and partly out of what I learned from you guys. So times like this are new to me. Obviously everyone is watching the market and hoping to time the bottom. My questions is what do you do with your new allocations in times like this? Do you change them to match where the rest of your funds are? In my case F. or I was considering buying in I. Thinking it will take a beating over the next couple months, and i would be buying cheep?
 
Same here, 100% S for contributions. This causes a slight departure from the AutoTracker, not enough to worry about IMO. Adjustments can be made, but I've not tried to figure that out.
 
I think it depends on how often you typically make IFTs. Since (when I was working and making contributions) I made IFTs often (and still do) I never bothered to change my contributions, and just kept it at 100% C for most of my career. Every time you make an IFT the recent contributions are swept into whatever your new allocation is, so since I typically make one or two IFTs every month I never worried about the contributions (especially when your account balance get to be large). If you don't make moves often then you'd want to set your contributions to match your general outlook on the market I think, so either all into stocks if you think the bull market isn't over yet, or all into G and/or F.

That's my 2 cents.
 
Tsunami said:
The party is almost over, maybe one more rally to new highs?
Click to expand...

Two weeks ago I felt the master planners would get it to Dow 30K by mid-March. Not planning on that now.

Is it possible by June? Sure, but there are too many trapped longs 2,500 points up from here right now that are saying, "please, just get me to even and I'll get out of the market".:embarrest:

Anyone looking to make money from here certainly can with the sharp bear market rallies soon to come.
 
Peter Eliades has a new projection target that’s over 5% lower than yesterdays’ close...somewhere between 2856 and 2951 for the bottom.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N1TcZ85lBSo

Sven Henrich's wife is a very good technician herself and on Feb 11th she called a likely top near 3382, and a target in the 2900's.
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1232391329067544576
I can see why she picked that since the rally started at about 2900 in October on the day the Fed started their “not QE” money injections, and there’s a big gap way down at 2950.

So for now I’ll go with Peter’s 2951 minimum as my target to get back in. Seems like a big bounce is likely first, then another drop, but there's no way to know the path...nor are the lower targets guaranteed.

Lastly, note that chart 57 is nowhere near giving a sell signal and the 10-day EMA line has just now barely turned down from it’s moon shot. Tops are a process and take time.
https://stockcharts.com/public/1107832/tenpp/5
 
I put pretty much zero stock in anything zerohedge posts, but this article has been making the rounds in forums elsewhere.
I won't even attempt to understand it but the bottom line is eye-catching, that if the S&P 500 closed below 3139 yesterday (which it did), then there would be a quick 10-15% "flush"...
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nomura-bounce-now-or-else-sp-futures-are-now-live-deleveraging

One guy I subscribed to for a very short time (he's way too expensive) long ago but still sends me free teasers points out that the index's frequently follow patterns on a monthly basis.
Sometimes the market will just go up from the first day of the month to the end of the month, sometimes the opposite, and sometimes the market will go up to the middle of the month
then fall to the last day of the month. Maybe that's what we're getting this month, in a dramatic way.
So the low could be tomorrow, with maybe some spillover into Monday, then comes the reversal? Who knows, but it's sure really oversold at this point.

A bit worrisome is that on a monthly basis this correction barely even shows up on the long-term chart at this point:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$...3464935&r=1441744741807&w=850&h=668&cmd=print

Peter Eliades is now hinting at a lower low below 2950. And that 11-year long wedge pattern he shows that's now breaking to the downside today is worrisome. Hmm.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j_7VXF2GErg

One more thing to show how extreme this selloff is...
https://twitter.com/sentimentrader/status/1232642858286485504

Lastly, my sob story, just one week ago today I put my entire Roth IRA into TVIX...I was so confident of a fall I put every dime on the red square at a price of $39.28....then I sold later that day at $42.25...now a week later TVIX is trading at $85+...I could have more than doubled my IRA in a week! :worried:
 
I couldn't fathom the Zerohedge article prediction I posted yesterday of another 10%-15% plunge, but now overnight I see that two of the technical gurus I follow have targets in that range.
Per Eliades' video last night (very end) his target looks like about 16% lower from yesterday's close.
Yikes, I can't imagine that this is only half over, but I supposed it's possible. Everyone has to make their own decisions based on your situation...but for now I still think most likely once this panic is over the market will head swiftly back to new record highs.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmudNNXiLz_X-z4FzNkJ5rg
 
Interesting. I have never heard of that. Do you know if they have been accurate in predicting Monday openings?
 
tsptalk said:
Interesting. I have never heard of that. Do you know if they have been accurate in predicting Monday openings?
Click to expand...

I'd never heard of it until Sven Henrich posted it last weekend on his Twitter feed, and in that case it did end up being accurate when the regular futures markets opened up at 6 pm eastern time Sunday evening.

Sven put out a good weekend video yesterday, and he's among the crowd expecting a strong bounce:

https://northmantrader.com/2020/02/29/2020-crash/

I don't think I've ever seen these indicators stretched outside the Bollinger Bands for so long. 5 days for the VIX, 4 for the others.
It would be incredible if they stay outside the bands another day on Monday. The rally could be like every garage door spring in the county breaking simultaneously.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$...2966307&a=269536931&r=1450045167343&cmd=print
 
As of 9 am Sunday morning, S&P500 futures are only down about (-0.5%). It’s down, but not a lot.

I’m still thinking a little bounce up is due, but we should not be fooled by the bounce, we are only a week into the fall, and it may be some time before the actual bottom is in. Be VERY careful if you try and play one of these bounces. It is very high risk, by past historical standards. A virus is a big unknown and we are in very rare, uncharted historic territory.

Oh- and THANK YOU Tsunami for that IG website. I have never seen that one either, and it is full of goodies! I’m going to bookmark it and check it out!

Thanks!

Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
 
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