Tsunami's Account Talk

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Just for the record, I moved to G today. I was too wrapped up in our moving stuff and forgot to enter the move into the tracker until after noon.
The market has been so strong this week I wonder if it might just keep on going. But I'm not going to complain about a 4% gain for June being locked in, those are hard to come by in what's normally a crummy month for both stocks and bonds.
 
Great articles! Thank you Tsunami. I especially liked the Federal news article and the PriceWaterhouseCoopers 2050 outlook link. Very interesting!
Best wishes to you! :smile:
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
Great articles! Thank you Tsunami. I especially liked the Federal news article and the PriceWaterhouseCoopers 2050 outlook link. Very interesting!
Best wishes to you! :smile:
Click to expand...

Thanks. I'm not convinced that the new I fund will be all that much better, but the logic sounds good. Here's a ratio chart of the last 5 years of the ETF I found (ACWX) which most closely matches what the new I fund will be versus VEA, the current I fund. The last few years the trend is up, so that's good for the outlook for the new I fund, if it continues. I've always been a big believer in demographics, so adding in emerging markets with their faster growing populations should boost returns as long as those countries are stable politically and economically...

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ACWX:VEA&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p80014266267
 
Tsunami said:
Thanks. I'm not convinced that the new I fund will be all that much better, but the logic sounds good. Here's a ratio chart of the last 5 years of the ETF I found (ACWX) which most closely matches what the new I fund will be versus VEA, the current I fund. The last few years the trend is up, so that's good for the outlook for the new I fund, if it continues. I've always been a big believer in demographics, so adding in emerging markets with their faster growing populations should boost returns as long as those countries are stable politically and economically...

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ACWX:VEA&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p80014266267
Click to expand...
Note: Vea is not as great as the EFA etf at matching the I fund as Vea includes Canada while efa and the I fund do not.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 
I'm expecting a short-term low late today, or overnight, or near the open tomorrow...then comes the "face ripping" wave 2 rally for a few days...then an even bigger drop. Markets move much faster these days.

Best case is the correction ends at the bottom of the well-publicized "megaphone" pattern, down around 2150-2200. Worst case would be Hussman's scenario of 60 to 65% down, and that's his minimum target.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc190805/
 
Hummm… I just saw a megaphone on the SPY ETF (S&P 500) weekly chart at Above the Green Line, public chart on Stockcharts. I guess I just have a hard time believing it would drop that much, but then again.. who knows. Agree... markets do move very fast. I will be waiting for the Slow Stochastic to start rising above 20 and for MACD to join in by crossing back above its signal line before I go back to equities.... but its hard to be patient. Just dislike the thought of missing the upside on this.

https://stockcharts.com/public/1107832/chartbook/308233788

Best wishes to you!! :)
 
Thanks Tsunami! Very helpful for my strategy this week. Hoping the market doesn't end up making me look like a fool again...lol:D
 
RF, that's just what markets do! LOL they make all of us look silly! We just try to make the correct call +51% of the time. Best of luck to us all!
 
I'm back to the lily pad at the close today, just one day in the C fund and made enough today to cover my TSP withdrawals for the next few months. A further extension of this rally up to 2950ish is possible, but I'm happy with the gain in this high-risk market.
Now back to the family reunion week stuff in Detroit (what a depressing place to drive around, but the people somehow maintain their positive spirit).
 
Great interview of Neil Howe and William Strauss on C-SPAN in 1997 that is pertinent to what is going on the world these days.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KXcDiGpVtbc
They were the authors of The Fourth Turning, which I'm now about 2/3's of the way through. Not exactly a page turner, but it's full of interesting history and is spot on in it's predictions of the next crisis stage that was to come beginning in 2007 (and lasting into the late 2020's). I wish they'd publish and update of it.
 
I'm counting 5 waves up in bonds completing right about now...if bonds start correcting/tumbling that should mean money pours into stocks for a few weeks.
If I had an IFT left I'd be going to stocks today, looking for around 3050 in the S&P 500 by 9/20. Oh well.

Looking like a very stormy/soggy weekend coming up in central Florida...Accuweather says over 7 inches of rain Sunday/Monday.
 
From the legendary investor Bill O'Neil. Today's big jump by the previously very weak oil sector could be a major warning....

"Other Bear Market Warnings - Another sure sign of the beginning of a bear market, as mentioned earlier, is when the original bull market leaders being to falter, and a number of lower-quality, low priced speculative stocks begin to move up. When the forgotten old dogs begin to bark and raise up out of the grave and spearhead the market's advance, the market is on its last feeble leg. Watch out."

Page 39/140: http://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3f96/5be8ac5dfaa2f75a98fd98d84c4f721d598d.pdf [FONT=&quot]

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