Tsunami's Account Talk

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2860 was a head and shoulders target, and it completed wave 5 down of this weeks drop, plus the market got extremely oversold after that plunge...so I'm looking for a (wave 4) bounce then one more drop to create some technical divergence...then comes a bigger bounce next week...but I don't expect new highs. I think the tide has turned and the masses are finally recognizing that we're entering a recession. The masses doesn't include the forever-optimistic advisers on TV though.

Still a long ways to go to fulfill this pattern:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EF9akUkXUAIVs3e.jpg
 
I think I posted this a long time ago: https://investingforaliving.us/2016/05/03/using-economic-indicators-to-time-the-market/ (which includes a link to this nice article: In Search of the Perfect Recession Indicator | PHILOSOPHICAL ECONOMICS)

Currently the 12-month moving average of the Unemployment rate is at 3.75% So all it would take in tomorrows jobs report is a seemingly innocuous tick up to 3.8% to trigger step 1 of that sell signal method.
Here's a chart that depicts that: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p46880709107&a=442365228

Currently the 10-month moving average of the S&P 500 month-end closing price is at 2835. The S&P is now down close to breaking below that level.

Hmm. I wonder if tomorrow's jobs report might provide the trifecta in bad economic reports this week, and show a UE rate of 3.8%...and cause the S&P to drop below 2835. If so that could signal a major turn.
 
Tsunami said:
So the sell trigger I mentioned on 10/3 didn't occur obviously....now I'm hoping that Peter Eliades' stock market cycles software projections come to fruition and the S&P gets up to 3052 or higher...
I've been following his updates for a few weeks. Good stuff...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJGpg7X_KBQ
Click to expand...

I'm hoping for a slight dip so I can drop in my other 50%. Not sure if I want to go 100% C or S or split 50/50.
 
So here we are in that 3080 to 3090 area.

This indicator hasn't been at such a screaming sell level since January 2018. Remember that crash? I sure do, luckily I escaped to G just a week before that peak.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EIm_I4TXsAMeB4b.png:large

The Elliott wave pattern just needs one more high to be complete, just one more push above yesterday's high of 3085.20. It looks like it will get there at or soon after the open today.
All it would take is one snowflake for a repeat at this point. the Fear & Greed index is at 86. VIX is reaching new lows. It feels like that moment at the top of a long roller coaster climb...what a great view! Tick tick tick...
 
1965Vintage said:
I went from G to F today. It all seems too good to be true. But what do I know?

I'm looking for a major correction in the S&P soon. But I'm a contraian.... So...

Sent from my moto z3 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app
Click to expand...

I'm tempted to do the same, but the TLT chart doesn't look bullish to me yet. The sharp drop the last two days makes me think it's heading down to the 200-dma near 131 before reversing back up. So I'm staying in G for now.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TLT&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p79548873074
 
Just a hunch, more of a hope, but I think the market has started a pullback that should last until about 12/10...maybe a turnaround Tuesday on that morning, then a renewed rally into the 1st quarter of 2020. I've been in F since 11/13, missing out on bigger gains in stocks, but at least F has been rising some too...will stay there until moving back to stocks at the low I'm hoping for.
 
Tsunami said:
Just a hunch, more of a hope, but I think the market has started a pullback that should last until about 12/10...maybe a turnaround Tuesday on that morning, then a renewed rally into the 1st quarter of 2020. I've been in F since 11/13, missing out on bigger gains in stocks, but at least F has been rising some too...will stay there until moving back to stocks at the low I'm hoping for.
Click to expand...

So far so good on my hope for a pullback. Yesterday's low should be wave A down. Now, with the help of the 285th report that "trade talks are going well" we're getting wave B up, which should hold below 3120ish. Then comes wave C down, bottoming some time in the next week...the morning of 12/10 still looks possible. Peter Eliades's software is now projecting a closing low of 3038.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6R39oHBcUJY&feature=em-uploademail

Meanwhile I'm hanging out F and doing OK. I've got just 2% to go to finally recoup my losses from my disastrous 4th quarter of 2018, the last quarter of my working career...and if successful I will have done so while only being in stocks about 20% of the time this year.
 
That is going to make me look at the mcclellan again. Haven't charted that one for a while. Used to look at that and transports for short term trades but that was back when 1-2% daily swing was so common it was normal. Be hard to make a play using it now but still worth looking at.
 
Mcqlives said:
That is going to make me look at the mcclellan again. Haven't charted that one for a while. Used to look at that and transports for short term trades but that was back when 1-2% daily swing was so common it was normal. Be hard to make a play using it now but still worth looking at.
Click to expand...

Peter is getting serious now, doing his update in a t-shirt. Everything is in place for at least a short term top at this point.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvQrSIzGwwM&t=326s
 
Déjà vu.

This commentary https://northmantrader.com/2020/02/05/market-soars-into-history/ brought me back in time to mid-March 2000. A vague memory of a fun weekend with three work pals. We’d driven up to Reno for a long weekend to bet on and watch March Madness games primarily. I remember almost nothing from that weekend (too much fun?) but one vivid memory is us all sitting together for a lunch and noticing that instead of basketball almost every TV screen in the place was set on CNBC (or whatever the equivalent was at that time) and we were all smiles watching the ticker tape as the Nasdaq soared that day and we talked about the easy money we were making in our brokerage accounts. As it turned out that was either the weekend of the very tippy top in the Nasdaq dot.com mania or within a few days of it. I proceeded to lose about 90% of my IRA over the next couple of years. Lesson learned and in 2008 I didn’t lose a dime.

History doesn’t repeat but it often rhymes they say, and I could certainly see the market peaking at some point this year and then bottoming in 2022. If history rhymes per Jay Kaeppel’s data that’s what could very well happen.

Presidential Elections And The ?Early Decade Lull? | Jay On The Markets
20-Year Symmetry (The Good News) | Jay On The Markets
20-Year Symmetry (The Bad News) | Jay On The Markets

So how do you know when to dismount the bull? My plan includes monitoring the recession/bear market indicators posted frequently by George Vrba here:

https://seekingalpha.com/author/georg-vrba#regular_articles

Until then I’ll attempt to keep riding the waves since that’s just what I do. I’ve gotta be happy with where I’m at so far this year, but I’m still kicking myself over my January move where I panicked back out to the F fund four days earlier than planned. If I’d stayed in C through options expiration day on 1/17 as I’d planned I’d currently be at +4.83%. Grrr.
 
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