Tsunami's Account Talk

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That’s only the “official” futures. There is behind the scene futures trading all the time. I Was always under the impression that it is used by hedge funds managers. See the link below that tsunami posted from ig for one example.
 
Awesome picture! There will be bounces along the way. Futures signaling one for today. How much of yesterday we get back who knows. And when it fills the up gap is another question. These are some wild and crazy days for sure! And with only one move left... when to use it!!!! 100% G for now.
 
Looks like we're now getting that first big rally. Oil up over 10%, rates soaring (F fund diving). How far will it go is the question. Anywhere from 2950 to 3200 is my guess based on various gurus' targets.

I had a gut feel yesterday with the plunge in rates that it was time to lock in our rate on the VA mortgage we're refinancing. Got that done last night at a rate of 2.875% with zero points. Nice!

This whole experience the last few weeks has me rethinking my decision to not roll over my TSP to an IRA now that I'm retired...the 12 noon IFT deadline and 2 IFT's/month rules have crushed what was a nice gain a couple weeks ago, from +7% to -7% in just days. That would have never happened with an IRA, where you could also make moves pretty much 24/7 and not be at the mercy of the market closing price. I also can't stand the TSP's dumb rule that you have to send them a notarized form (with the spouse's concurrence) every time you change the amount of your monthly withdrawal or make a small one-time withdrawal. I might change my mind soon and do the rollover so that I'd have both my Roth IRA and a new traditional IRA with TD Ameritrade (soon to be Schwab-Ameritrade or whatever the new company will be called). My Roth IRA is at +51.6% as of today, my trading account is at +145% as of this moment :smile: ...my TSP -7%? I really need to make that move and rid myself of the TSP.

P.S. - I see on CNBC that the government is talking about cutting the payroll tax to 0%, and making it permanent. Uh, how will that work, just print money? What genius's. I need a good new avatar to represent a banana republic. Maybe that 100 trillion dollar Zimbabwe bill I have.
 
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I have a few more years to decide, but I totally agree. Previously, I was planning on keeping my $$ in TSP. After the gyrations of the last few weeks, the limited moves, by Noon ET, have sold me on moving my $$ to something that allows more flexibility.

Tsunami said:
This whole experience the last few weeks has me rethinking my decision to not roll over my TSP to an IRA now that I'm retired...the 12 noon IFT deadline and 2 IFT's/month rules have crushed what was a nice gain a couple weeks ago, from +7% to -7% in just days. That would have never happened with an IRA, where you could also make moves pretty much 24/7 and not be at the mercy of the market closing price. I also can't stand the TSP's dumb rule that you have to send them a notarized form (with the spouse's concurrence) every time you change the amount of your monthly withdrawal or make a small one-time withdrawal. I might change my mind soon and do the rollover so that I'd have both my Roth IRA and a new traditional IRA with TD Ameritrade (soon to be Schwab-Ameritrade or whatever the new company will be called). My Roth IRA is at +51.6% as of today, my trading account is at +145% as of this moment :smile: ...my TSP -7%? I really need to make that move and rid myself of the TSP.
Click to expand...
 
Tsunami said:
My Roth IRA is at +51.6% as of today, my trading account is at +145% as of this moment :smile: ...my TSP -7%? I really need to make that move and rid myself of the TSP.
Click to expand...

Same here! I am so mad right now I could chew nails and spit barbed wire! I made an IFT today right before the cut off. The market was about flat at that time. Then it closed up 5%. Had I had it in my Fidelity account I would have used the same amount of money and bought the SPY. I would have sold before the close and made 5% today alone! Seriously, I am considering just taking my $260k out of the TSP, paying the 10% penalty and the taxes and putting MY money in Fidelity so I can manage it as I see fit.
 
Hmm, just like last Friday, yesterday I had an IFT in to move to G and cancelled it at the last minute. But today I see that TSP moved me to G last night. Did they have mercy on me? Maybe I messed up and didn't hit the "submit" button (I did that once before in the past)? The tracker will still show me in stocks today, but I'm in G, and my TSP balance is all the way down to where it was when I retired 14 months ago. In any case, I'm glad (for the moment) to wake up to this news, but now I'm locked out until 4/1, and I still think the market is going to bounce in a big way soon....although at this point I don't see anything the government can do to "fix" things.

The first step in fixing things will be when we see the yellow "other locations" line in the lower right chart start to flatten out...for the best view hit the logarithmic tab then the upper right button to go full screen.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

A couple thoughts on targets....perhaps the final bottom will come at the 50% level at around 1700, which happens to be the where the 200-month moving average is:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$...3464935&r=1441744741807&w=850&h=668&cmd=print
It seems like that would be the worst case if the panic continues for another week or two, but then again there's Hussman's target of around a 80% crash.

Peter Eliades has come out with a new target that's about 15% lower at a minimum. That could be reached by tomorrow very easily...beware the Ides of March...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3GeRQXXNwc
 
Honestly, I don't think the government fixing things will be what turns things around; I think it will be reports like the one I posted where nothing is really happening to the economy... and people pull their heads out of their... the sand, yeah, the sand... that's the ticket!
 
With more and more people staying home, how can that NOT negatively impact the economy?

Whipsaw said:
Honestly, I don't think the government fixing things will be what turns things around; I think it will be reports like the one I posted where nothing is really happening to the economy... and people pull their heads out of their... the sand, yeah, the sand... that's the ticket!
Click to expand...
 
weatherweenie said:
With more and more people staying home, how can that NOT negatively impact the economy?
Click to expand...

I may be a focus group of one, but I was out last night and all the restaurants near my house were packed. The problems are where 'social distancing' is being imposed on people... St. Pat's Parades being cancelled, students being sent home, sports events cancelled... for no good reason. The Wuhan Flu doesn't appear any more contagious or dangerous than the regular flu.
 
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Whipsaw said:
I may be a focus group of one, but I was out last night and all the restaurants near my house were packed. The problems are where 'social distancing' is being imposed on people... St. Pat's Parades being cancelled, students being sent home, sports events cancelled... for no good reason. The Wuhan Flu doesn't appear any more contagious or dangerous than the regular flu.
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possibly; "Fauci said COVID-19 is at least 10 times "more lethal" than the seasonal flu, even if the mortality rate drops far below the World Health Organization's current estimate of 3.4%."
 
wahinepio said:
possibly; "Fauci said COVID-19 is at least 10 times "more lethal" than the seasonal flu, even if the mortality rate drops far below the World Health Organization's current estimate of 3.4%."
Click to expand...

The seasonal flu 'lethality' is 0.1%... so, Wuhan Flu is maybe 1%. Well below the WHO's numbers.
 
A question for anyone that's done it, how long is the timeline for transferring your TSP to a traditional IRA with a broker? I'm wondering if it can be done within 2 weeks or does the TSP drag it out longer?
 
Tsunami said:
A question for anyone that's done it, how long is the timeline for transferring your TSP to a traditional IRA with a broker? I'm wondering if it can be done within 2 weeks or does the TSP drag it out longer?
Click to expand...

great question. and can we transfer the TSP account into a Roth or does it have to be a traditional IRA?
 
Tsunami said:
A question for anyone that's done it, how long is the timeline for transferring your TSP to a traditional IRA with a broker? I'm wondering if it can be done within 2 weeks or does the TSP drag it out longer?
Click to expand...

I'm actually in the middle of having that done right now (post separation withdrawal). Once the TSP receives your paperwork, it takes 7-10 business days for them to process. For a rollover, a check would then be cut and sent to your IRA custodian.
 
blueroadster said:
I'm actually in the middle of having that done right now (post separation withdrawal). Once the TSP receives your paperwork, it takes 7-10 business days for them to process. For a rollover, a check would then be cut and sent to your IRA custodian.
Click to expand...

Update...It actually took the TSP 5 days to process my request. The withdrawal form was faxed to them on Monday 09 March and there was an update this afternoon after logging in to TSP indicating that my request has now been processed. I did not have much in my account so I transferred 75% to an IRA (check to be issued and mailed to IRA custodian) and 25% as withdrawal for funds to be processed via EFT.

Request.jpg

Request1.jpg
 
Thanks BlueRoadster. So I'd assume that by Friday you'll be able to start trading in the IRA, so about 2 weeks total time.

Now my next question that's harder to find an answer to, is there anyone out there who's transferred their TSP to an IRA a number of years ago, and you're willing to share how you've done in the IRA vs. how you think you would have done in the TSP if you'd stuck with the TSP? Did you honestly do better in the IRA, or is my personal fear that I'd likely over-trade and/or make poor decisions in an IRA and not do as well the reality for those of you who have made the move?

2800 for a bounce. Not much but it's something:
https://northmantrader.com/2020/03/16/kiss/
 
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