Tsunami's Account Talk

Here's a long-term chart regarding the UE rate sell signal I mentioned below. Looks like there were a couple brief spikes above the moving average in the past that proved to be false signals, so it remains to be seen if the UE rate will fall back down and prove this to be a false sell signal.

https://www.stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=25&mn=0&dy=0&id=p46880709107&a=442365228

Thanks for the chart. Interesting overlay. Past couple of months have a similarity to the May-June 2008 action shown on that chart. If there is a correlation I am glad I got out.
 
Hmm, per this the interim payment do NOT include any of the FERS Supplement as I thought:
https://www.opm.gov/faqs/QA.aspx?fi...91a5&pid=107e6718-35fa-4b44-a9f9-83c1ce4112fc

Got my Services Online temp password this afternoon...set up my account...although there's no statement, they give you the federal tax amount so I was able to figure out that my first interim annuity payment was about 85% of the estimated final amount I should get. So everything looks fine, no problem with the amount. I think my confusion was I forgot that they don't take out a dime for the health insurance premium from interim payments. They do that retroactively once everything is finalized. So all they take out is Federal tax: https://www.opm.gov/FAQs/QA.aspx?fi...91a5&pid=c45b596b-7e01-48f2-b588-1c22b8522b7d If my case is finalized in the average ~60 days I should get my annuity finalized right around April Fool's day.
 
Tsunami,

Keep in mind they do not take out for dental insurance, if you are signed up for that as well. Also, if you live in a state that has state taxes, you will need to have money allocated for that as well.

Once again, congratulations on your retirement.:D
 
It took me a week to find the time in my busy retirement schedule :smile: to read this, but boy am I glad I did:

Making Optimal Social Security Claiming Decisions by Daniel Amerman

What an eye opener regarding social security and Medicare Part B. I'd urge anyone not already collecting SS to take the time to read that from start to finish. Looks like my plan to hold out as long as i can before collecting SS has just changed and I'll more likely be collecting at age 62 a few years from now. And regarding Medicare Part B, I've been on the fence, but now I'm falling off the fence toward the side of not applying for it. If I do decide to take Part B, then it would be prudent to start collecting SS at age 65 if I haven't already started by then. That's because of the huge premium increases you're likely to face during the period you're not covered by the hold harmless provision. The average 7.7% annual Medicare Part B premium increase https://www.fool.com/retirement/2017/02/05/heres-what-51-years-of-medicare-part-b-premium-inc.aspx makes it a slam dunk not to wait to age 70 unless you're pretty certain you'll live well into your 90's.

Anyway, a very good read, as is the other free stuff by Daniel Amerman on his website.

P.S. - Ravensfan...moving to Florida next month, so no state taxes for us.
 
It took me a week to find the time in my busy retirement schedule :smile: to read this, but boy am I glad I did:

Making Optimal Social Security Claiming Decisions by Daniel Amerman

What an eye opener regarding social security and Medicare Part B. I'd urge anyone not already collecting SS to take the time to read that from start to finish. Looks like my plan to hold out as long as i can before collecting SS has just changed and I'll more likely be collecting at age 62 a few years from now. And regarding Medicare Part B, I've been on the fence, but now I'm falling off the fence toward the side of not applying for it. If I do decide to take Part B, then it would be prudent to start collecting SS at age 65 if I haven't already started by then. That's because of the huge premium increases you're likely to face during the period you're not covered by the hold harmless provision. The average 7.7% annual Medicare Part B premium increase https://www.fool.com/retirement/2017/02/05/heres-what-51-years-of-medicare-part-b-premium-inc.aspx makes it a slam dunk not to wait to age 70 unless you're pretty certain you'll live well into your 90's.

Anyway, a very good read, as is the other free stuff by Daniel Amerman on his website.

P.S. - Ravensfan...moving to Florida next month, so no state taxes for us.

There is more to Medicare Part B.

There is a 10% penalty per year compounded if you do not sign up for Part B when eligible.

If you are 65 and are covered under your employers health insurance you do not have to sign up for Part B (government retiree health coverage does not count). You can defer it until you no longer are covered by your employers health coverage and you have 6 months to sign up.
If you are not covered by an employers health insurance program and you do not sign up for Part B when eligible then there is a 10% penalty per year.

1st year 10% penalty
2nd year 20% penalty
3rd year 30% penalty, etc.

As an example you wait 4 years after eligibility to sign up for Medicare Part B that would add an additional 40% to your monthly premium. This excides the possible 7.7% annual increase. That penalty will be tacked on every year.
 
Yes, the Medicare penalty forces you to make the decision at age 65. For Feds covered by FEHB through retirement, I don't see that adding Medicare Part B makes financial sense. Part A covers the big stuff that matters most. Of course the FEHB plans push us to sign up for Medicare Part B since it saves them a lot of money, and they'll even waive copays if you do.

My plan is, starting this year, I'm tracking every penny that my wife and I shell out in the various categories that correspond to Medicare Part A, B and D, so I'll have six rows on the budget spreadsheet that tracks that for 6+ years...and if by age 65 it looks like it's very unlikely that shelling out the Part B monthly premium will save us money, I won't get it. I'll do that for each of us separately. Of course things change later in life as your health deteriorates, so all I can to for that is use our parents/siblings as proxies...both of my parents are 85 and amazingly healthy for example (my stubborn dad refused neighbors help and spent yesterday shoveling up to four feet of snow drifts at their house in Washington), as are my siblings so far...so for me I'm leaning toward not getting Part B as of now...for my wife we might go the other way....but the decisions are 6 years away for me and 10 for her.
 
Tsunami,

I have Federal BC/BS basic, plus Medicare Part A & B for myself and my wife and other than some drug costs we paid $0.00 last year for our doctor visits and procedures. Plus BC/BS reimburses each of us $600 on the Part B portion. I don't worry about the Part D since BC/BS has pretty good coverage. The one disappointing thing about Medicare is that it doesn't really cover; dental, eye and hearing. But who knows what will change in 6 to 10 years.

Enjoy retirement.
 
"Plus BC/BS reimburses each of us $600 on the Part B portion."

NASA,

Could you explain that? I wasn't aware that BCBS would send us $600/year per person if we get Medicare Part B. Why? That would be $1200/year and certainly changes the equation.
Last year we had a total of $524 in copays that Medicare would have probably covered (or BCBS would have just dropped the copays), but that doesn't come close to the current premium of $134/month, times 12 months, times 2 people = $3,216.

We've had Blue Vision and United Concordia for vision/dental for many years now and that's saved us a bundle.

Market...OK, I'm grasping at straws now hoping for a pullback LOL...maybe a swing high today per the stars?
http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/
 
Tsunami,

I have Federal BC/BS basic, plus Medicare Part A & B for myself and my wife and other than some drug costs we paid $0.00 last year for our doctor visits and procedures. Plus BC/BS reimburses each of us $600 on the Part B portion. I don't worry about the Part D since BC/BS has pretty good coverage. The one disappointing thing about Medicare is that it doesn't really cover; dental, eye and hearing. But who knows what will change in 6 to 10 years.

Enjoy retirement.
That's Exactly what we have plus GEHA High Option Dental, works for us!
 
"Plus BC/BS reimburses each of us $600 on the Part B portion."

NASA,

Could you explain that? I wasn't aware that BCBS would send us $600/year per person if we get Medicare Part B. Why? That would be $1200/year and certainly changes the equation.
Last year we had a total of $524 in copays that Medicare would have probably covered (or BCBS would have just dropped the copays), but that doesn't come close to the current premium of $134/month, times 12 months, times 2 people = $3,216.

We've had Blue Vision and United Concordia for vision/dental for many years now and that's saved us a bundle.

Market...OK, I'm grasping at straws now hoping for a pullback LOL...maybe a swing high today per the stars?
http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/

Tsunami,

After I signed up for Medicare I got a letter from BC/BS and it said since I had the Basic coverage (not Standard) I was eligible for a $600 rebate. They just don't send you the money. There is some paperwork and time involved in order to get the information to them. But that is explained in the letter. Then after the wife signed up she got the same letter.

I just got my quarterly bill and it bumped up to $135.50/month each for Part B.

If you suspend your Federal Health Insurance and get supplemental coverage (Part C) instead, some of them cover your Medicare Part B. Supplemental groups vary from state to state. I found here in Ohio AARP was one of the best. Right now it is cheaper for us to be on my Federal BC/BS instead of supplemental coverage because I would have to get it for both of us.
 
Thanks NASA.

Regarding my switch from BCBS Basic to the Blue Focus plan, I finally got through to OPM by phone this morning after many busy signals over the last week, and then 25 minutes on hold...they said that they do now have me shown under the new Blue Focus plan, so that's the premium amount that will be taken from my annuity (along with the monthly premiums for Blue Vision, United Concordia, and my FLTCIP coverage) but they haven't and won't notify BCBS of the change until my assigned Specialist gets around to it. That could be soon, or could be weeks, or many weeks, no way to know. Argh. It's frustrating since the doctor visits and Rx copays are piling up and will all have to be corrected retroactively to January 1st.
 
Tsunami, thanks for posting that link about Social Security. Time for me to rethink about when to start collecting. Good luck with the FEHP changes. Sounds like we are on the same OPM time line so far. Hopefully we get the full amount by May or June?


nasa, thanks for posting that info about the $600 reimbursment from Fepblue. I had forgotten about that as the letter got buried. It took me about 15 minuts to create an account at Fepblue wageworks and submit the claim for 2018.


PO
 
Could be wrong (again) but it sure looks like a top to me right now. I'm seeing a complete 5 waves up and lots of divergences. Hoping for (finally) a pullback over the next week or two at this point.
 
Final installment in my insurance change saga....yesterday BCBS got word from OPM of the change to the new Blue Focus plan and made the change. I called them and they will send out new ID cards today, and they're retroactively correcting all the copays for 2019 to-date back to January 1st. So that takes care of that and is further evidence that the OPM specialist is working on my case.

As for the market, boy it's stretched. I'm fine remaining in G for now, and expect at least a small pullback over the next week.

https://northmantrader.com/2019/02/17/caution-2/

Charts 51 and 52 sure look like they're wedging into a final tippy top...

https://stockcharts.com/public/1107832/tenpp/5
Snow falling here today, the region is pretty much shut down...just 5 weeks left until the move to Florida. :banana:
 
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My OPM status has changed to "case finalized" and says I'll get my annuity package within a few weeks. Glad there were no hang-ups there.
The move to Florida is getting close, just 3 weeks left in the Land of Enchantment...got a condo leased near Sarasota (in Lakewood Ranch) and once settled in we'll start the home search.

The I fund's seasonal strength started a little early this year, in mid-February:
VEA:VXF | SharpChart | StockCharts.com
... so I'm tilting my account that way and will be 50% I, 25% C and 25% S after today. Who knows how long I'll hold though, maybe only through OpEx next week, maybe longer....
 
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