Tsunami's Account Talk

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Tsunami said:
Retirement countdown is down to just one day to go, checking out for good Monday morning. :banana:

Like FWM I moved to 100% F today....why?...statistically the last day of the year has been down most years, and this rally feels like just that, a rally, with one more low in January coming. That's my guess anyway. I think there will be a more substantial rally coming soon though. I went with F since historically January is a good month for bonds, with gains that would beat the G fund's 0.25% or so. We'll see. Hopefully 2019 is kinder to me than 2018.

Nice interview if anyone hasn't seen it: https://www.financialsense.com/vide...economy-stocks-bonds-trump-fed-full-interview

We have our first-ever blizzard warning in the land of enchantment today, nice day to be home watching football and surfing. Go Cougs! It's gonna be a tight game vs. the Clones tonight.
Click to expand...
F fund has been rocking it, steady up since November .37 today. Good choice. That's where I've been living. Good for you, enjoy retirement and congratulations!

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using TSP Talk Forums mobile app
 
Hi Tsunami!! Congratulations on your retirement!! You know what they say, A Bad Day at Fishing is better than a Good day at Work!! :D
Wishing you the Best!! :smile:
 
Thanks everyone. Every day so far I wake up and think, "don't I have to go to work today?". :D

We're now shifting gears and starting to sort and pack stuff in preps for moving to Florida in late March. This will be an adventurous year for sure.

As for the market, boy does the F fund look overheated. I just put in an IFT to move from F to C, and it's as much of a move to escape an overheated bond market as it is a bet that another leg up in the market should be coming. I'm guessing the S&P bounces to a high around 2600 (the October low) next week and I'll make another exit there. That's the plan anyway. If it keeps falling I'll just hang on for the eventual bigger rally.

F fund as per AGG, this has to pull back! To 105.50 is my guess....
AGG | SharpChart | StockCharts.com
 
I always like to listen to what Craig Johnson has to say. He’s been amazingly accurate year after year.
https://www.financialsense.com/podc...-watch-possible-double-dip-says-craig-johnson

A summary of his 2019 outlook if I heard it right:


That all sounds reasonable to me, especially the short-term view. I’m hoping for a bit higher, maybe even touching the 55 EMA on chart #01 here: https://stockcharts.com/public/1172710 That would be around 2625. More realistically maybe it touches the channel in chart #54 here: https://stockcharts.com/public/1107832/tenpp/5 That would be around 2600.

Great reading by Ray Dalio here: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/help...ve-ray-dalio?trk=portfolio_article-card_title

Looking forward to Ciovacco getting his weekly video up: https://twitter.com/ciovaccocapital

Go Seahawks!
 
Hate to throw a wet blanket on the ZBT thing (which I started on Whipsaw's thread), but per this analysis by Tom McClellen it sounds pretty useless, especially if we've entered a bear market.

https://stockcharts.com/articles/tac/2015/10/tom-mcclellan-zweig-breadth-thrust-signal.html

I'm seeing divergences in technical indicators (15 minute chart: https://stockcharts.com/public/1107832/chartbook/444193383 ) so think this rally since 12/26 is on it's last legs, now in wave 4 of C. Maybe one more high (wave 5 of C) today or tomorrow closer to 2600 and that's it. Hmm. Might bale to G today. Bonds looks like they need more time to consolidate.
 
Thanks for providing that commentary, very interesting read. If nothing else, the ZBT seems to indicate when markets seem to be getting to an overbought point, as for whether it signals a longer upward trend, yeah who knows. Good Luck either way.
 
Oh my, I See I was paSSed by a heard of Sneaky SSSSSSnakes today, and Several of them were wiSe enough to move to G or F. Futures are solidly down, looks like I was one day too early in bailing out.

This kind of kiss of the underside of a broken channel can be a dangerous thing...
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DwfB1A4X0AADgSu.jpg

Hmm, I guess this is what happens when the Fed caves in:

JNK.JPG
 
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