Tsunami's Account Talk

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Tsunami said:
Oh my, I See I was paSSed by a heard of Sneaky SSSSSSnakes today, and Several of them were wiSe enough to move to G or F. Futures are solidly down, looks like I was one day too early in bailing out.

This kind of kiss of the underside of a broken channel can be a dangerous thing...
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DwfB1A4X0AADgSu.jpg

Hmm, I guess this is what happens when the Fed caves in:

View attachment 43998
Click to expand...


Better 1 day too early, then 2 days too early like me. :)
 
I'm so envious/impressed with those that have held out in stocks until today. You've been rewarded handsomely.

So when is the inevitable short-term top? DeMark says today, then another rally to 2713:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/vhtt...-daybreak-americas-full-show-01-17-2019-video

Martin Armstrong says Monday 1/21, Elliott wave guys are saying any second now we're due for a "wave B" pullback.

I'm hoping for that wave B down starting by Monday, down to the lower Keltner band (see 3rd chart), then wave C blasts off to the upper Keltner band by late May, to 2800ish.
https://stockcharts.com/public/1172710

Sticky pants for the ladies out there:
https://www.stickyseat.com/
 
Tsunami said:
I'm so envious/impressed with those that have held out in stocks until today. You've been rewarded handsomely.

So when is the inevitable short-term top? DeMark says today, then another rally to 2713:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/vhtt...-daybreak-americas-full-show-01-17-2019-video

Martin Armstrong says Monday 1/21, Elliott wave guys are saying any second now we're due for a "wave B" pullback.

I'm hoping for that wave B down starting by Monday, down to the lower Keltner band (see 3rd chart), then wave C blasts off to the upper Keltner band by late May, to 2800ish.
https://stockcharts.com/public/1172710

Sticky pants for the ladies out there:
https://www.stickyseat.com/
Click to expand...


Great links.
 
Hey Tsunami. Happy 2019! The Elliott wave guys have got me scratching my head because on Friday, I saw several saying the bear is dead an that we're in rally to 2750 basically. I messed up in December. i should have held my powder and BOOM, costly mistake. I still think that the market will retreat between now and May to about 2100, but with those crazy bear rallie money can still be made.

FS
 
Thanks FS.

This 2007-09 analog is interesting, and would be the ideal scenario for those of us out of IFTs until February. If this drop accelerates below 2600 we can blame the Greeks...

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019...egin-their-re-correction-watch-out-below-2600


A retirement tsunami?....who told Mike Causey I retired? :nuts:

https://federalnewsnetwork.com/mike.../01/will-shutdown-trigger-retirement-tsunami/

I'm told I should get my annual leave lump sum deposit on the next regular pay-day of January 31st, and my first partial annuity deposit the next day on 2/1. Fingers crossed.
I also hear that OPM is more overworked and understaffed than usual this month, though not directly affected by the partial shutdown.
 
I just re-discovered PO’s retirement story page…my experience was very similar…here’s some updates on the timeline of my retirement progress since 12/31/18:


  • 1/17/19, got my final paycheck deposit
  • 1/25/19, found out that I could get my final Leave and Earnings Statements and my 2018 W-2 form by creating a MyPay account through DFAS (my agency’s pay system is handled by DFAS, but we didn't have MyPay accounts). Requested a temporary password to open the account. They send it by snail mail.
  • 1/28/19, received an LES in the mail from DFAS for my annual leave deposit. My assumptions on the deductions were accurate so there were no surprises…e.g., they take out a flat 22% for federal taxes, and 7.45% for the OASDI/Medicare taxes (6.2% + 1.45%). There was also a small refund of my FEHB premium for the portion of the final pay period that extended into 2019 (for 5 of the 14 days of that pay period). Also got two letters from BENEFEDS for both my supplemental vision and dental insurance, letting me know the new monthly premium payment amounts and that they’d be working with OPM to take the premiums from my annuity, but until that’s set up I’ll get monthly bills to pay the premiums directly. Also got a nice long 5-page letter from my agency’s HR/retirement guy explaining the process/timeline and giving me a full hard copy of the package that was submitted to OPM for my retirement. Concurrent with my retirement (as part of open season), I had also decided to switch from the BCBS Basic to the Focus plan which is new in 2019. OPM will forward the paper SF 2809 form to BCBS to make that change (it couldn’t be done electronically due to my retirement).
  • 1/29/19, Found out that I could get a “55+ and Retired” 10% discount on my homeowners insurance premium. Called them (Allstate) and got that discount.
  • 1/30/19, Received the temporary MyPay password from DFAS. Created the account and printed out my final paycheck (1/17 deposit) LES and my 2018 W-2 form and got my taxes started.
  • 1/31/19, Got my annual leave deposit for the 384 hours I had on the books, over $17K after taxes, nice. :banana: So I’m now done forever with DOE/NNSA and in the hands of OPM.
  • Hmm, reading through PO’s thread, just realized that I can now update/finalize my records of the exact amount of my FERS annuity that will not be taxable on Federal taxes since I now have a final number on the amount I paid into CSRS and then FERS retirement system. So that’s a project for this evening. IRS Publication 721 lays out how to calculate that, and starting next year I can subtract that off my annuity.

Next up I was hoping to get my first interim annuity deposit tomorrow, on 2/1/19, but that looks doubtful. I haven’t heard a peep from OPM, nor has BCBS received notice of my insurance plan change yet. Ugh. So now I’m hoping to get my first annuity deposit before or on 3/1, and hopefully get it finalized by 6/1/19. I hope the fact that I had 8 years of CSRS time before my FERS time doesn’t put me into the slow pile of applications…..they’ll see that and say “oh, he’s one of those, we’ll do that one “later””. I finished with about 2200 hours of sick leave 604 of which will apply to my CSRS time), pretty amazing considering all the sick leave I used for my kids and 2 wives over my 35 years.
Preps for sale of the house and moving to Florida are chugging along. Boy you accumulate a lot of stuff over a lifetime LOL. Being the f*ing engineer that I am, I keep a detailed spreadsheet of pretty much everything, and even receipts for much of it…that comes in really handing when you move, for figuring out how much insurance to carry. I used to kid my wife about how few miles she put on her car after she retired a few years ago…now I’m in the same boat, I drove a whopping 79 miles this month LOL. I used to do that much in 2 days commuting.

Ah, progress…reading through PO’s thread (thanks to the post by MrBill) I see that TSP recognizes me as being retired…so maybe my first interim annuity deposit will magically show up tomorrow. We’ll see.
 
I discovered Daniel Amerman a few days ago via this article.
https://www.financialsense.com/blog/18917/coming-return-zero-percent-interest-rates

Then I started following the links to his very looooong but very good articles. Good stuff. This is the next one on my reading list:
Making Optimal Social Security Claiming Decisions by Daniel Amerman

I never had the time to read such things when I was a working stiff. I think I might even get to that pile of books I've bought on Amazon but never read LOL.
Today I took a one hour walk up to the Petroglyphs National Monument behind my house, beautiful day here...never did that on a weekday before... I'm loving being retired!
 
I've been following this indicator since it was written almost 3 years ago...
In Search of the Perfect Recession Indicator | PHILOSOPHICAL ECONOMICS

Today it finally gave a sell signal since the UE rate turned up above the moving average. This is only the 3rd sell signal this century and the last 2 successfully sidestepped the bulk of dot-com and great recession bear markets.

https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1091431676201312257

Many are planning to get out when the 200 dma is hit...will it be that easy?...will the algos allow it this time? Or will there be a stampede to the door soon? Time will tell.
 
Back home now...retirement update:

- Got my CSA Claim No. from OPM in the mail yesterday, now waiting on the password so I can access my account.
- Got my first annuity deposit today. It was not only way more than the 80% interim amount I anticipated, it was about $200 more than the estimate for the FULL amount! Hmm.
- Gonna attempt to call OPM tomorrow to find out what the delay is in processing my request to change health insurance plans to the new BCBS Blue Focus plan. BCBS says they got something from OPM 2 days ago, but the new plan code was "blank", oh dear.

As for the market, looks like it's finally reached a short-term top. Now I have to start paying more attention to figure out which day to jump back in for the next rally.
 
Whipsaw said:
I hope you didn't get overpaid! Those folks are maniacal about getting over payments back. =:-o
Click to expand...
Yeah, from your next paycheck. The worst part is you don't get back the part of that you payed in taxes until you file next year for 2019. I really hope that isn't what happened to you, Tsunami.
 
I was unable to reach OPM on the phone today, nothing but endless busy signals. So I sent an email instead regarding the health insurance problem.
I think I might have figured out the high annuity amount answer. My understanding from multiple retirement classes was that you don't get a penny of the FERS Supplement until OPM has finalized your annuity, then they give you full backpay for the FERS Supplement for however many months you weren't getting it. But if that's not true and you also get something like 80% of the FERS Supplement as part of your interim deposits, that would explain the higher amount (Are there any recent retirees out there that know the answer to that?...do you also get a portion of the FERS Supplement during the interim period?) The deposit was about 77% of the final total (FERS annuity plus FERS Supplement after deductions) amount I'm expecting, so that fits that theory. Maybe when I get my Online Services password (hopefully early next week) and can get into my account I'll see if that's the answer if there's some sort of statement for the interim annuity components.

Market update...I think today's bottom finished a clear 5 waves down, which means after the bounce ends there will be another 5 wave drop, a wave C...which could be sharper and deeper than the initial 5 waves down but will be the time to get in. Perhaps the looming 2nd shutdown will provide enough of a scare to produce that drop next week. I've been playing the drops using TVIX in my Roth IRA and doing nicely.
 
The 75% mark is what my buddy reports getting. According to him (retired last summer) annuity + supplement estimate is what comes in first month. Then second month is full amount plus what is owed to you, then third moth started being normal amount. Caveat is that he retired at the end of June so he got his leave payout the third week of July, his first retirement check came in the first week of August, 2nd one the first part of September and normal amount began in the first part of October. He said if he had retired the first of July then his first retirement check would likely not have come till the first week of September because of the way OPM processes packages.
 
Tsunami said:
I was unable to reach OPM on the phone today, nothing but endless busy signals. So I sent an email instead regarding the health insurance problem.
I think I might have figured out the high annuity amount answer. My understanding from multiple retirement classes was that you don't get a penny of the FERS Supplement until OPM has finalized your annuity, then they give you full backpay for the FERS Supplement for however many months you weren't getting it. But if that's not true and you also get something like 80% of the FERS Supplement as part of your interim deposits, that would explain the higher amount (Are there any recent retirees out there that know the answer to that?...do you also get a portion of the FERS Supplement during the interim period?) The deposit was about 77% of the final total (FERS annuity plus FERS Supplement after deductions) amount I'm expecting, so that fits that theory. Maybe when I get my Online Services password (hopefully early next week) and can get into my account I'll see if that's the answer if there's some sort of statement for the interim annuity components.
Click to expand...

Hmm, per this the interim payment do NOT include any of the FERS Supplement as I thought:
https://www.opm.gov/faqs/QA.aspx?fi...91a5&pid=107e6718-35fa-4b44-a9f9-83c1ce4112fc
 
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