Tsunami's Account Talk

[Tsunami]

Richard Arms of Arms Index (or “TRIN”) fame recently passed away at 83. He was a long-time resident of Albuquerque.
https://cmtassociation.org/uncatego...hard-w-arms-jr-january-12-1935-march-10-2018/

I just updated my spreadsheet of ETFs I track and below is a first quarter summary of what’s working this year. Basically not much is working, and the only things in the green were:

Growth – Large cap growth funds like VUG and IWF, and small-cap growth funds like VBK and IWO
Emerging Markets – Standouts are Vietnam (VNM) and Thailand (THD)
PIMCO funds – Funds like PCI, PDI, and PTY are solidly up in 2018, plus sport big dividends of 8-10% per year.
Inflation Protected Bonds – WIP is up 3.53%.

Pretty much everything else that I follow is down.

Wave 4 should be over by early May at the latest, then hopefully we’ll see some solid green this summer.

Final 4 time!

 

[Tsunami]

I'm mostly seeing predictions that wave 4 will bottom around 2460 or 2530, but looking at this chart I think the damage could be worse. With a starting point that high above the upper Bollinger band it seems almost a certainty that momentum will take the market below the lower band before the spring is wound tight enough for the wave 5 rebound.

$SPX | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

 

[Tsunami]

I'm mostly seeing predictions that wave 4 will bottom around 2460 or 2530, but looking at this chart I think the damage could be worse. With a starting point that high above the upper Bollinger band it seems almost a certainty that momentum will take the market below the lower band before the spring is wound tight enough for the wave 5 rebound.

$SPX | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

Now or never for the bears. A lot of eyes are on the inverse head and shoulders pattern that is obvious on the chart below.
If the bulls can push through 2675 then the target becomes about 2795. One guru I read says down hard for a week or so starting tomorrow based on cycles, as much as 280 points if the panic gets bad enough. There's several potential news events I can think of that could spark that sort of decline. Hmm.

Above the Green Line - Apr 12, 2018 Buy high, and Sell Higher: Momentum Investing - Joanne Klein - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com;

 

[Whipsaw]

Pssst! hey! don't jinx it! :worried:

 

[Tsunami]

Positive changes for the I fund next year:
https://federalnewsradio.com/commentary/2018/04/a-brighter-investment-outlook-for-the-i-fund/

https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/f24204d8-3fba-46b7-95e7-5b7dcc44536c

Glad to see a down day to start May since I'm closing my eyes and diving back in....might be too early though. 100% C fund since that's the seasonally strongest fund for May.

 

[Tsunami]

Positive changes for the I fund next year:
https://federalnewsradio.com/commentary/2018/04/a-brighter-investment-outlook-for-the-i-fund/

https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/f24204d8-3fba-46b7-95e7-5b7dcc44536c

Glad to see a down day to start May since I'm closing my eyes and diving back in....might be too early though. 100% C fund since that's the seasonally strongest fund for May.

Here's a chart of a ratio of what will be the new I fund in 2019 over the current I fund. Looks like a good switch, at least in bull markets...I'd expect it that ratio to head the other direction in a bear market environment.

ACWX:$MSEAFE | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

 

[Tsunami]

Cycles suggest the potential for a major peak in oil here:

$WTIC | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

 

[Cactus]

Tsunami, I see you got back in today. It's nice to have 2 IFTs again. So, was this move based on your system or how you currently see the market?

 

[Tsunami]

Tsunami, I see you got back in today. It's nice to have 2 IFTs again. So, was this move based on your system or how you currently see the market?

Both, although I'm apprehensive since June is often a lousy month for stocks. Not this year though hopefully.

 

[Tsunami]

May was the best month of May for U.S. stocks since 2003. Why not follow that up with an encore of the best June in a long time?
03062018

Warriors in a blow out, love it.

 

[Cactus]

Actually, the S Fund has a good track record for May. It has been the winner for 10 out of the 18 years since its inception. That's the same lead that the I Fund has for April.

Unfortunately, there is no clear cut leader for June. For the last 17 years the winners are:

G F C S I
5 3 0 6 3

 

[Tsunami]

Finally a breakout for the inverse head and shoulders pattern in the S&P 500. Target is about 2800...

Public ChartLists | StockCharts.com

S fund still leading the way.

 

[Tsunami]

Yikes! The FANG stocks and other Internet related stocks have been the lynch pin of the continued bull market. The Dow Jones Internet Composite Index, represented by the ETF "FDN" is a good measure of the story. Look at the chart of FDN and it's been steadily going more and more parabolic. It looks a lot like bitcoin last year except stretched out over 10 years.

Select "All" as the time frame on this chart to see the parabola. When I zoom in I can count a potential complete 5-waves as of Friday the 13th's peak yesterday. It can keep extending of course, but I wouldn't want to ride this down when it reverses (and carries the rest of the market index's with it).

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/AMEX-FDN/

 

[Tsunami]

Yikes! The FANG stocks and other Internet related stocks have been the lynch pin of the continued bull market. The Dow Jones Internet Composite Index, represented by the ETF "FDN" is a good measure of the story. Look at the chart of FDN and it's been steadily going more and more parabolic. It looks a lot like bitcoin last year except stretched out over 10 years.

Select "All" as the time frame on this chart to see the parabola. When I zoom in I can count a potential complete 5-waves as of Friday the 13th's peak yesterday. It can keep extending of course, but I wouldn't want to ride this down when it reverses (and carries the rest of the market index's with it).

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/AMEX-FDN/

Netflix down over 10% after hours, ruh roh.

 

[Cactus]

Netflix down over 10% after hours, ruh roh.

Holy guano, batman, has the correction begun?

 

[Tsunami]

Holy guano, batman, has the correction begun?

I doubt it, but it could help fuel a small wave 2 pullback for a few days.

 

[Cactus]

Thanx for the warning. :worried:

 

[Tsunami]

This sounds pretty cool and I plan to get the $99 software. The nerd in me will love it and it will provide countless hours of staring at my computer, trying to tweak and perfect what my own spreadsheets are telling me about retirement spending plans. It sounds useful for anyone approaching retirement, already retired, or planning to someday...which I suppose is everyone LOL.

https://www.financialsense.com/kotlikoff-rules-retirement-planning-have-completely-changed

https://maxifiplanner.com/

 

[Tsunami]

Some odds and ends...

An update on Maxifi Planner, I bought it, spent part of a weekend playing with it and really love it. It's perfect for the do-it-yourself type and now I feel no need to hire a financial planner as I enter retirement next year. It confirmed all my spreadsheets and will help me maximize discretionary spending through retirement.

I hadn't heard of this until today...made me think, I could go full circle... I started out my working career as a boxboy then a stockman/checker...then with a piece of paper in hand bloop I became a nuclear engineer...consultant...environmental engineer...general engineer and all-around guru..hey, why not, now I can do whatever the F I want and can become a professional grocery shopper! I actually like the challenge of minimizing grocery costs and could say it's part of the equation of why I'm retiring at 58. I see they operate on the Space Coast of Florida where the wife and I are headed...hmm...
https://www.shipt.com/be-a-shopper/

This idea has been bounced around forever, could it actually happen? https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/30/us/politics/trump-tax-cuts-rich.html

The Nasdaq's oscillator is now oversold enough for a bottom, but once in a while the frog likes to jump to the lower Bollinger Band. I wonder if that will happen after Apple's earnings on Wednesday. Hmm...if it does that would set the center post of a new "T" for a good rally into the fall...
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NAUD&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p60344459388&a=348428797

The charts are certainly in a position to support a significant drop, hmm....
https://northmantrader.com/2018/07/29/peak-tech/

86 more work days to go, including 10 telework days. Got my retirement form filled out and ready to go. I have the one and only position in my office that HQ's actually approves hiring a replacement for early, so there's time for overlap and training; that should happen within a few weeks with a direct hire. The year is passing by quickly!

 

[Scout333]

Good luck with your retirement! I highly recommend it. Plenty of time for fishing!