Tsunami's Account Talk

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A really good series of presentations by Jim and Chris Puplava...

https://www.financialsense.com/investment-strategy-conference-part-1-jim-puplava

https://www.financialsense.com/investment-strategy-conference-part-2-chris-puplava

https://www.financialsense.com/investment-strategy-conference-part-3-jim-puplava

Some takeaways...returns are really going to be awful for the next decade for passive investors, near zero...you need to have a position in emerging markets (India is the best in my opinion) to have any chance at decent returns...active investing will do better than passive buy-and-hold...the next bear market is not far off.
 
Gunnar's targets for mid-January remain right on track...

03122017

Dow 25,440 is just 1.5% away
Nasdaq-100 6725 is just 2.1% away
IWM 58.05 is just 2.3% away

I'm guessing we get a spike up early Friday with another great jobs report, then a small wave 4 pullback for a day or two, then another rally to those targets by mid-January. There's no reason to suspect otherwise. After the January top comes a bigger pullback, but nothing serious...maybe trees to grow to the sky?
 
The Fed's rarely stated fourth policy goal, to ensure the stock market never goes down, is going very well...so far...
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/949712451523829760

S&P 500 to 3000 this year...easy! 2019 worries me though.
https://northmantrader.com/2018/01/07/2018-market-outlook/

Getting closer to a long-term top per this chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYSI&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p01928932408&a=231284346&r=1443304934270&cmd=print

Another chart to watch for that long-term top, maybe in 2019?
http://www.stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p46880709107&a=442365228&listNum=91
 
I can't quite make out your latest avatar there, Tsunami. To my old eyes it looks like a pile of money going up in flames. That's definitely a Franklin there in the foreground.
 
Tsunami said:
The Fed's rarely stated fourth policy goal...
Click to expand...

Tsunami: Your post yesterday with NorthmanTrader link & charts were great; Thanks for sharing! Scary times will come... I agree... getting close(r) but not just yet it seems.:blink:
 
This euphoric/manic market had me looking back at history. The last time even close to this craziness was back in 1995 and into 1996:
https://www.financialsense.com/fs-staff/gary-dorsch-were-entering-mania-phase-bull-market

So, looking at a long term monthly chart how did that period look?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$S...3464935&r=1441744741807&w=850&h=668&cmd=print
Note that by June 1st 1996 the RSI had reached an extreme level of 87. What happened next?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$S...3464935&r=1441744741807&w=850&h=668&cmd=print
The month of July 1996 saw a greater that 10% drop...then the relentless baby boomer fed bull market resumed.

How does this compare to now? The RSI has just hit that same level of 87. Hmm.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$S...3464935&r=1441744741807&w=850&h=668&cmd=print

So that's probably what should happen, but will the world's governments let it happen?
 
Yes, and this baby boomer is doing so in December. :smile: It's nice to finally see some younger minds coming into my agency.

The flood of boomers retiring and pulling money from the markets was supposed to have caused a major market correction by now...but money printing...low interest rates...and now tax cuts are pushing that back. I hope the eventual correction/recession isn't as bad as some predict. I'm reading Harry Dents latest book, he's always good for depressing reading.
 
But they dont leave the market when they do..they may get more conservative but they still need to make money...right...
Every retired person I know is still 60% invested...I just went 50% (from 42%) today..was hoping today would have pulled back a bit..no such luck.
 
Tsunami said:
Yes, and this baby boomer is doing so in December. :smile: It's nice to finally see some younger minds coming into my agency.

The flood of boomers retiring and pulling money from the markets was supposed to have caused a major market correction by now...but money printing...low interest rates...and now tax cuts are pushing that back. I hope the eventual correction/recession isn't as bad as some predict. I'm reading Harry Dents latest book, he's always good for depressing reading.
Click to expand...

The Millennials are pumping it in faster than we take it out.
 
Almost every guru I read says the same thing, we're in wave C down and look for a bottom in mid-March. When there's a consensus like that it rarely happens as expected, but for now that's what I'm looking for. I noticed yesterday how AMZN and AAPL and NFLX had all hit new highs and looked ready to collapse, and sure enough that's starting to happen. I'm content sitting in G for a while, hoping to get in around 2500.

https://northmantrader.com/2018/02/27/tech-cracks/

Wow, 72% of earnings growth since 2012 and been from company stock buybacks. What an illusion.

https://northmantrader.com/2018/02/28/debt-matters/

You can add me to anecdotal evidence of the problems emerging. My wife and I were about to sign a contract to build our dream retirement home in Viera, FL last weekend. But with rising costs for the house, and rising rates on the huge mortgage we'd need for the $700K house, we decided against it and we'll go back to plan A and sell our current home first then rent and take our time finding a resale home. Multiply us by 10's of 1000's of people out there and there's a problem brewing.
 
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