Tsunami's Account Talk

Scanning through today's IFTs... About half and half going all-in or all-out. My feel (after looking through charts of all 20 of my dividend stocks portfolio, which is doing great, up 11% through the first six months of 2017 including dividends) is that the large caps are on their last gasp and the S&P and Dow will join the QQQ's in a summertime pullback starting Wednesday, so I'm fine sitting in G for a while longer. For the QQQ's, there's a big juicy gap down around $133, so that's my target for my current holding of QQQ puts. It could get uglier than that though if the S&P lets loose a correction of 7% or so, which is much-needed.

Above the Green Line - Jul 3, 2017 Buy high, and Sell Higher: Momentum Investing - Joanne Klein - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com
 
The waves are now aligned for another rally into the upper 2400s, and Danny agrees:
https://lunatictrader.com/2017/07/11/ready-for-2500/

Statistically, the C and I funds trounce the S fund during July over the last 10, 20, and 30 years, so I'm going 50/50 C & I. Hoping for a small down day (small wave 2) today to get in.

My July Stats, how the funds have done over the last 10, 20, 30 years (using equivalent index's prior to 2001):
Fund 10 Yrs 20 Yrs 30 Yrs
F...... 0.77% 0.67% 0.74%
C...... 1.96% 0.78% 1.31%
S...... 1.43% -0.14% 0.39%
I....... 2.39% 0.32% 1.45%
 
Woo hoo... from a hotel room in Tennessee waiting for my wife to be ready to head out for family reunion activities... my 1000th post! :banana:

I hope a few of them have been worthwhile.
 
Hi TS. Well, SPX bounced at 2452.5. We'll have to see if it tests support again this morning and breaks under 2452. If it does, I see use pulling back to to 2429 or 2406 Fib pivots. But I agree with you that we'll PROBABLY see 2525 to 2600 before we see a BEAR market.

FS
 
So we got that perfect wave 4 low yesterday at 2450. Now we're in what could be the final little wave 5 to a potential significant top. My system says to stay in for a few more days, but I'm playing it safe and bailing out early today. Wave 5 would equal wave 1 at about 2475 https://twitter.com/PUGStockMarket and it could get there today or early tomorrow. I need just 0.14% today to get to my annual goal of 8% since my actual return is 0.29% better than shown in the tracker.
 
Looks like one more rally into the 2480s early next week.

For chart fanatics this is a great read:
http://www.financialsense.com/sites...dfs/2017/Stifel-MacroClientVisitsMar-2017.pdf

And here's the interview of the author that goes along with it:
Interview With Stifel Nicolaus? Barry Bannister - Possible Market Peak in 2018 | Cris Sheridan | FINANCIAL SENSE

Bottom line is he agrees with many that the bull market will peak next year, and I like the chart that shows I'll have plenty of company in Margaritaville...
https://www.latitudemargaritaville.com/
 
The media is so focused on Trump's tweets that I haven't seen real news in the news. Here's an important one. Congress is quietly making big changes to how IRAs are taxed. Not sure if this will affect the TSP as well (anyone know?). This could also impact my decision on whether or not to roll over to an IRA when I retire.

New Taxes on IRAs and Pensions | James J Puplava CFP | FINANCIAL SENSE

Only one more little stab higher is needed to complete the wave pattern. So I'm looking for a medium-term top (a month or two) today.
 
What a pretty and classic corrective wave B rally over the last four days. Four straight opening bells have been sold off by the smart money.
Above the Green Line - Aug 2, 2017 Buy high, and Sell Higher: Momentum Investing - Joanne Klein - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com

So now we can finish the wave 4, down to just below 2460...heck, it's already halfway there after just the first hour. I'm tempted to buy today, can probably capture at least 1% in the final rally up to near 2500...very risky though, it's possible the top is already in place as Avi Gilburt is warning. A break below 2450ish would be the first sign of that.
 
Hey TS: Tend to agree with your analysis. 2450 is also my "BEAR TIME" predictor. My guess is that they'll take just under to frenzy those Bears into their shorts, then pull the rug out from under them again. We'll see how it goes. This is almost as much fun are Super Mario. :D

FS
 
Seasonal weakness continues right on schedule...

Avi Gilburt has been very accurate lately. If that continues look for a low just below the recent low at 2436, then a bounce, then another fall as the whipsaw wave 4 continues into September.

Will there be one last gasp for the S&P 500 before a September pullback? - MarketWatch

Heading to the Bay Area tomorrow to meet my 1st grandchild, an adorable little girl born last week...also marrying off my stepson later this week...a two-for-one week!
 
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