Tsunami's Account Talk

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I'm "enjoying the journey" as quoted from Tom's commentary this morning, but are we going into a "phase change" with much more to run, or about to fall off a cliff?

https://lunatictrader.com/2017/02/15/is-this-it/

I have no idea, but the index's having been riding above the Bollinger Bands for a few days...very toppy looking... I'm going to protect gains and deviate from my system here and go to the lily pad for a bit. I'm just 1.4% from my minimum retirement goal so that's part of the motivation.

I think the F fund has a decent shot to rally clear up to the 200dma, but I just don't trust it, so G fund here I come.
 
This is still tracking fairly well. If it continues a pullback should be near...but no top until August 2018...

El Niño, La Niña, & The Stock Market - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial

...and his oil analogy also predicts a top in 2018...

DJIA, And the Echo of 2007-08 Oil Blowoff - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial

Don't know if that will pan out (my guess is one more rally next week to ~2420, then a drop to ~2300), but I can safely predict my Cougs will not be part of March Madness for the 9th year in a row LOL.
 
Hey TS! It's a shame they played so well against Arizona State a few weeks ago. I thought they looked very powerful. I hope my Zags keep it together.

I'm reading similar stuff about a top in 2018; end of Primary Wave III I think is what I read (other say Primary V - I really don't know who is right). But what kinds of turney twisties will we are endure to get there...

Hope all is well. Thanks for posting. Here is a chart posted from a trader (Phil) who seems to do very well. Just short term FYI.

Phil.jpg

FS
 
FS,

Go Zags!...how about this for a 2018 top prediction...SPX above 3000 next year...great news!...oh wait, then comes wars and a 55-year bear market to end life as we know it. Oh my, this one takes the cake for doom and gloom...
Important Stock Market Top? | Brad Gudgeon | Safehaven.com

In other news, I've noticed there's a serious price war going on among brokers. That got me to incorporate Charles Schwab into my ETF trading system, and it actually beats the TSP in the long run. Hmm, it's got me rethinking my plan to stay in the TSP when I retire.

Here's are charts of two of Schwab's funds that I'd use to replace the C and S funds respectively...

SCHX beats the C fund consistently:
SCHX:$SPX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

And likewise for SCHA over the S fund:
SCHA:$DWCPF - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

The trading fees for those funds and 200 others with Schwab?....$0
 
the management fees on the SCH* in-house ETF's also are basically negligible, and you can match the F-C-S-I funds plus much more so it does not require adjusting the system one may by using for tsp offerings.

i use schwab for a 529 college savings plan and a small roth ira and a regular brokerage account. when i retire i will pull almost all of the money from tsp and put it with schwab or a similar private broker. real-time trades! unlimited! and they seem genuinely honored to have your deposits, not like tsp where you should kneel before mr. long and be honored he lets you keep money there. f that.
 
burrocrat said:
the management fees on the SCH* in-house ETF's also are basically negligible, and you can match the F-C-S-I funds plus much more so it does not require adjusting the system one may by using for tsp offerings.

i use schwab for a 529 college savings plan and a small roth ira and a regular brokerage account. when i retire i will pull almost all of the money from tsp and put it with schwab or a similar private broker. real-time trades! unlimited! and they seem genuinely honored to have your deposits, not like tsp where you should kneel before mr. long and be honored he lets you keep money there. f that.
Click to expand...

About what does it cost to move your money in and out of a fund.
 
Thanks Guys. I may also look into it. TSP isn't giving me the returns I expect so I may take a chunk and put it directly into the market. IFTs are too limiting for such a dynamic market.

TS, if the article is correct, that would seem to put us in Primary Wave V and indicates a new cycle will soon be underway... I thought that way last January and I was 100% wrong. But, I definitely agree that a major correction is due.

FS
 
Bill3438 said:
About what does it cost to move your money in and out of a fund.
Click to expand...

If you're asking about moving an account from one broker to another, it varies. With TD Ameritrade I could do a full account transfer (e.g., I wouldn't have to sell any of my 20-stock dividend portfolio, they'd just transfer the entire portfolio to Schwab) for a fee of $75. Those fees vary from $0 to $95 depending on the broker. Here's a good article on the process...
https://investorjunkie.com/15125/transfer-brokerage-account/

But you asked about moving your money in and out of a fund...with Schwab it's $0 if you're using their commission-free ETFs, just like with the TSP. Ameritrade has 100 commission-free ETFs.
Here's Schwab's list: ETFs
 
Wow, like a magnet the S&P came right down to Gunner's 2351 target for this week.

19032017

Now the question is, will it hold? The I fund is holding up well thanks to the falling dollar, which I think is likely to come down to the 200dma.
 
The market is acting very strong, edging higher despite the weak jobs number and overseas mess. No need to mess with my TSP allocations...

For those that haven't seen it, this looks hopeful....
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...estors-to-be-proposed/?utm_term=.c9c495ef4f75
...although I have zero confidence that Congress will pass it, or pass anything for that matter. I'm only a year or so away from needing to make that decision, stay in the TSP or rollover to an IRA when I retire. If that bill passes that could sway my decision.

Meanwhile in my trading account, I made my first tweak since I bought my 20 dividend stock portfolio in December. I sold GM (I suspect the auto industry will continue it's long downhill trend), and replaced it with the Wells Fargo 7.5% preferred stock. It pays a steady $75/year per share, which currently gives it a return of just over 6%. That boosted the return of my overall portfolio from 4.84% to 4.94% (actually a bit higher, maybe even touching 5%, since being a preferred stock the dividends are taxed at the 15% rate, making it a great holding for a taxable account).

A couple links, the article where I learned about it and a nice summary page:

A Value Opportunity in Preferred Stocks | PHILOSOPHICAL ECONOMICS

WFC-L Search Results - QuantumOnline.com
 
Oh no, dropped to page 2, can't have that.

I think the market is set up perfectly to gap and go Monday, just like after Brexit. Wave E of wave 4 could have ended today at 2344. Problem is, the waves can also be interpreted the other way and a quick plunge washout it possible. Hmm. :worried:

Funny story...I have the same name as one of the very top SES managers in my agency. We get confused a lot, I've even been mistakenly invited to meetings with the Secretary, and have been sent tons of info I shouldn't see, including personal info from his staff and friends. Today our agency travel agent booked a trip for me, in my Concur account, with my credit card...but it was supposed to be for my doppelganger in DC. After I stopped laughing I notified everyone involved to hopefully get it fixed. :laugh:
 
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