Tsunami's Account Talk

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Tsunami said:
So I got my expected gap up Monday...after this morning's second gap up I sold the QQQ calls that I had bought Friday... too soon, but it was almost enough gains in two days to pay for our Mediterranean cruise next month... :banana:

Just saw the news that Greg Long has resigned.
https://federalnewsradio.com/tsp/2017/04/tsp-executive-director-stepping-down-after-10-years/
Click to expand...


long another lowlife criminal moving on to another criminal activity. probably getting a higher paying job at the company which manages the tsp funds which he helped to make them rich and strangle the Fed workers and their TSP accounts.
 
So did anyone notice the TSP's screw-up on Friday? The G fund has been going up a predictable 0.001, every day, like clockwork. But last Friday they raised the price by 0.003. Oops! I bet there were a few phone calls over that. They got back on track today with a 0.001 increase, but anyone that happened to leave the G fund on Friday and went to stocks got a few extra bucks from the mistake. This makes me wonder, how often do they screw up the other funds?
https://www.tsp.gov/InvestmentFunds/FundPerformance/index.html

I'm seeing more and more of these "to the moon" predictions for the market. Another sign that a significant top is probably less than a year away...it might only be like the correction back in 1981-82 though (see chart in story), 15-20% then up we go again, propelled by more and more astounding tech and medical inventions... and world markets catching up to the U.S...
A ?life-changing? rally is shaping up in the stock market, predicts one fund manager - MarketWatch

Wise thoughts about North Korea:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/war/north-korea-beware-of-internal-events/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/...panked-why-2017-is-the-crisis-year-for-korea/
 
Last edited:
Tsunami said:
So did anyone notice the TSP's screw-up on Friday? The G fund has been going up a predictable 0.001, every day, like clockwork. But last Friday they raised the price by 0.003. Oops! I bet there were a few phone calls over that. They got back on track today with a 0.001 increase, but anyone that happened to leave the G fund on Friday and went to stocks got a few extra bucks from the mistake. This makes me wonder, how often do they screw up the other funds?
https://www.tsp.gov/InvestmentFunds/FundPerformance/index.html
Click to expand...
I don't think it is a screw up, typically the increase for the 2 weekend days are paid on Monday but occasionally they will pay early or even split it when the month changes and last day of month is on Saturday and new month starts Sunday
 
Boy am I hating the S fund right now. It's not measuring up to historical statistics at all this month. It's probably a warning and small caps are leading the way to the next move, which may be per the chart posted today by FS.

Meanwhile, wow what a bubble in Bitcoin...more than a triple in one year? That's not a currency, it's a parabolic move on hype and speculation, just waiting for the last bag holders to buy in...
XE: XBT / USD Currency Chart. Bitcoin to US Dollar Rates
 
Give it time -- the month is young yet. April finished with the I fund in the lead as per historical statistics.

The reason the S Fund has been underperforming this year is because I've been 100% S all year. Just wait until I capitulate and you will see it skyrocket. Hint, that isn't anytime soon.
 
I saw the developing bear flag in the S fund that Tom shows in tonight's comments and bailed to the F fund yesterday. No idea if the pullback will be tiny or substantial, but I feel good being out for a bit...speaking of bit...this bitcoin craze is just the kind of nuttiness that happens near parabolic bubble tops:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dying-man-claims-he-just-borrowed-325k-to-go-all-in-on-bitcoin-amid-record-highs-2017-05-09

And how much longer will this bubble go?
Above the Green Line - May 9, 2017 Buy high, and Sell Higher: Momentum Investing - Joanne Klein - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com

I'm 9 for 10 in QQQ options trades this year...just small chunks of my trading account, not crazy ones like I did last year....I put in my 11th trade today with QQQ puts....maybe too soon though.
 
For the record, sold the puts when this morning's pullback was not looking impulsive...the market just wants to keep creeping higher...maybe to Tom McClellan's predicted mid-May top?...$1485 gain...10 out of 11 gains now. :smile:
 
An interesting toy. Plug in any stock or index symbol. For example, with MCD, you discover that it has gone up every single November since 1995! Find eleven more stocks like that for all twelve months of the year and you could just go from stock to stock each month.....GE has gone up in February for 8 straight years, etc. You could go through the entire S&P 500 or even more stocks and come up with the top 3 or 4 stocks for each month and buy them to spread your bets...Repeat as necessary until filthy rich...

Any retirees out there with enough time to do that for me? :D

Seasonality | Free Charts | StockCharts.com
 
The S&P 500 heat map says it all today. The entire market is being kept afloat by the two elephants, AAPL and AMZN.

https://finviz.com/map.ashx

The charts for AAPL and AMZN both look toppy to me. Small caps are still leading the way down. AGG appears to have completed a 3-wave correction and should head higher. So I'll remain in F into next week.
 
Interesting that both of these permabears are predicting a major top in September using totally different methods, and both predict what comes next will be several years of horrific pain....

Charles Nenner - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A8hhupeA14M

Robert McHugh - Looks Like the Next Major Stock Market Top Will Arrive in October 2017 | Robert McHugh | Safehaven.com

Short-term, I'm still looking for a decent sized pullback and am staying in F through a vacation next week where I'll be eating pizza in Naples and sipping espresso in Cannes. :smile:
 
Can't beat good NY pizza! I've been enjoying various preparations of schnitzel this week in Germany, that never took off in the US like pizza has... ;)
 
Hmm, did the tech bubble burst today?
Has the Tech Bubble Finally Burst? | FS Staff | FINANCIAL SENSE

Looking at a chart of the most overvalued stock on the chart in that article, AMAT, it does look ripe for a big fall...
AMAT - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

And a look at Google, it had reached the end of a textbook "T" today, ready for a collapse, and sure enough it did...
GOOG - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Support for the Nasdaq-100 is down near the 200-dma, which is about 10% lower from today's close...
21052017

And then there's bitcoin...I've never seen MACD reach such an extreme level so quickly as it has in this bitcoin trust fund, and this week it finally mattered...
GBTC - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Hmm
 
Divergences are building, getting close to Northie's 2458 target...which is also a target of an Elliott wave guru...
https://northmantrader.com/2017/06/04/market-facts-surprises/

I'm a nervous holder at this point. I was at +6.15% for 2017 a couple days ago and would like to get back above 6% by Monday and likely bail out. The last couple days look corrective, so I'm still expecting at least one more surge.

Today also happens to be the strongest Bradley turn date of 2017... https://goo.gl/images/NQHhd2 but I've found that to be pretty useless.
 
Hmm, so maybe that Bradley turn date will produce something of significance this time.

6/19/17 comments from Peter Eliades:

Consensus Financial Commentary

So far so good for him calling a significant top to the day, but as he points out, the A/D line projects higher highs ahead.

Economic indicators aren't weak enough yet for "the" top to happen yet, but I wouldn't be surprised by a 5-7% or so drop to shake things up.
 
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