Tsunami's Account Talk

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One of the few technical things I’m watching carefully is Peter Eliades’ work here:
http://consensus-inc.com/002001i/knay1537/fin-com/0909fc-pesc.htm

I have a lot of respect for Peter because he's been so darn good for many decades, and as the S&P approaches that two-decade long trend line I’ll be watching closely to see if it’s truly a barrier to further advances. I just did the math, and to give myself an easy place to reference it, the trend line over the coming weeks will be at:

Week ending 11/18/16: 2235.31
Week ending 11/25/16: 2236.69
Week ending 12/2/16: 2238.08
Week ending 12/9/16: 2239.47
Week ending 12/16/16: 2240.86
Week ending 12/23/16: 2242.25
Week ending 12/30/16: 2243.63

Peter’s latest piece is here: http://consensus-inc.com/002001i/knay1537/fin-com/1114fc-pesc.htm
 
Hey T
looks like the S&P has about 48 points to get to the trend line on 11/18/16, seems like a lot of ground in a short time to get there.
 
I'm not saying I expect it to get there this week....I'm just showing where that trend line is at each week over the rest of the year. It rises by 1.388 points per week per Peter Eliades. So whenever it gets there, be it next week or next year, I'll be watching to see if it can bust through or not.
 
Tsunami said:
http://consensus-inc.com/002001i/knay1537/fin-com/0909fc-pesc.htm
...as the S&P approaches that two-decade long trend line I’ll be watching closely to see if it’s truly a barrier to further advances. I just did the math, and to give myself an easy place to reference it, the trend line over the coming weeks will be at:

Week ending 11/25/16: 2236.69
Week ending 12/2/16: 2238.08
Week ending 12/9/16: 2239.47
Week ending 12/16/16: 2240.86
Week ending 12/23/16: 2242.25
Week ending 12/30/16: 2243.63
Click to expand...

Boy the S&P is working it's way up to that line in the sand quickly!

Hmm #1, same as it ever was... "So who benefits (from the proposed tax cuts)? Well, the same folks that always benefit. The top 1%."
https://northmantrader.com/2016/11/21/empty-promises/

Hmm #2, Huskies favored by 6 in the Apple Cup Friday. I'd take those odds. I say WSU 37 UW 27... Go Cougs!
 
A rather sobering read. Is default on the national debt now inevitable?

The Road to Recovery: Global Epocalypse Inevitable According to Trump's Chief and World's Largest Failing Bank | David Haggith | Safehaven.com

I'm not sure about that, but he's convinced me to buy some PKW for this final bull market run. I see it's been outperforming since Brexit. I'm hoping to buy a pile on a pullback to $50 this coming week.

You hear a lot about the top 1%, it's actually the top 0.1% that are monopolizing America:
Share of US household wealth by income level - Business Insider
 
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A very sobering read, but one better managed if Americans understand the true financial and policy challenges facing the nation. Scary stuff though..

FS
 
FogSailing said:
A very sobering read, but one better managed if Americans understand the true financial and policy challenges facing the nation. Scary stuff though..

FS
Click to expand...

I agree that an economic collapse is very scary. I didn't live through the Great Depression, but the pictures and stories tell of miserable times. I have no idea if or when a collapse will occur, but if it were, how could I personally prepare for this situation? This is a serious question. Horde cash, pay off home, move tsp balance to G fund before collapse? I've had the same thoughts that the overwhelming debt would lead to conditions like those in Greece, where ultimately salaries were slashed and pensions were reduced. I welcome any ideas on how best to prepare. Thanks.
 
drbama said:
I welcome any ideas on how best to prepare.
Click to expand...

556x45 nato, 9mm parabellum, silver, canned tuna, a good tarp. oh, and an extra pair of socks. don't forget the socks, they come in handy and can double as mittens for the approaching winter.
 
drbama said:
I agree that an economic collapse is very scary. I didn't live through the Great Depression, but the pictures and stories tell of miserable times. I have no idea if or when a collapse will occur, but if it were, how could I personally prepare for this situation? This is a serious question. Horde cash, pay off home, move tsp balance to G fund before collapse? I've had the same thoughts that the overwhelming debt would lead to conditions like those in Greece, where ultimately salaries were slashed and pensions were reduced. I welcome any ideas on how best to prepare. Thanks.
Click to expand...

I have the same question drbama. I've read 100's of articles like this, but they never answer that question, other than the gold bugs saying to hoard gold. The best thought out articles often conclude that the government response to a debt collapse will be to stage a big overnight devaluation of the dollar (but other countries will do this as well, so how does that help?), and in that case it seems like stocks would be the best place to be since their prices would adjust upwards to the new dollar value. But there will be no way to know what day they choose for the devaluation, and in the meantime you would be watching your account sink daily as the stock market’s collapse leading up to that devaluation. Maybe Burrocrat hasthe only good answer. Protect your physical assets as best you can, and realize that paper assets could be wiped out no matter what you do. In the meantime though, party on! 2017 could bring bubbleicious gains.
 
Well, we can be positive and all realize that whatever happens, the .01 percent of the 1% will be there to lead the way with an already pre-determined outcome..:D:D:D

FS
 
Staying with the gloomy predictions theme...

"We estimate the ubiquitous 60/40 US portfolio has a 0% probability of achieving a 5% or greater annualized real return over the next decade. Yep, you heard us correctly. Zero."

https://www.researchaffiliates.com/..._challenge_or_the_lloyd_christmas_lesson.html

https://www.researchaffiliates.com/en_us/asset-allocation/five-percent-challenge.html

Hmm, that's pretty gloomy. Even the last 10 years a simple buy-and-hold strategy using the C fund produced 7.36%/year (from 12/31/03-12/31/15).....and per my ETF spreadsheet a 60/40 "balanced" portfolio consisting of 30% IVV, 30% VXF, and 40% AGG produced a return of 7.11%....well, I'll take them up on their 5% real return challenge, except to get more than a 5% compound annual ("real") return over the next 10 years I'll won't be using a buy-and-hope system, instead I'll be using my seasonal strategy and hopefully blow away that 5% figure. My biggest challenge will be staying with the system though. I've deviated from it yet again when I went to G Friday, hoping to time a 2-3% pullback over the next four days to boost my 2016 returns a bit more. Based on past experience my odds of success are pretty low LOL.
 
drbama said:
I agree that an economic collapse is very scary. I didn't live through the Great Depression, but the pictures and stories tell of miserable times. I have no idea if or when a collapse will occur, but if it were, how could I personally prepare for this situation? This is a serious question. Horde cash, pay off home, move tsp balance to G fund before collapse? I've had the same thoughts that the overwhelming debt would lead to conditions like those in Greece, where ultimately salaries were slashed and pensions were reduced. I welcome any ideas on how best to prepare. Thanks.
Click to expand...
--I recommend having some cash available...in the previous Greece and/or Spain crisis, they limited the amount of funds you could withdraw daily from ATMs. Those involved in the financial crisis and Lehman bankruptcy instructed family members to withdraw as much as they could from ATMs when they were unsure whether or not the banks would open the following day.
--I believe it is always a good idea to minimize debt...it is a great sense of relief when you finally pay off a mortgage.
--It is great if you can get out of the market before a crash, but it is hard to catch a falling knife without some pain. You can always keep a certain amount in the G Fund that you cannot lose but you also don't gain much in the mean time. If we go into hyper inflationary period, the value of cash and treasuries will take a hit, so there is always risk with any choice you make. We will all be up a creek.
--Those who write about financial meltdown all advise investing in precious metals as a store of wealth. I've haven't invested in any gold or silver but I do have a 1 ounce Krugerand necklace, other jewelry and some silver coins in worse case scenario. Note: there are some that have been predicting the worst for many years, eventually they may be right but I'm not sure if or when it will ever be as bad as the doomsayers predict.
 
Wow that was fast. Going back to my 11/21 post, that 2240 line in the sand for this week (per Peter Eliades' very long term trend line going back decades) was hit today.

So now it's time to see if there's any big reaction downwards. I don't see why there would be fundamentally, but you never know with Ms. Market.
 
This guy must be reading the musings of Tsunami LOL...several times this year I've mentioned Craig Johnson's call for the S&P 500 to reach 2350 by year-end....and more recently I've been mentioning that very long-term trend line that we just busted through yesterday (which seems very bullish to me)...and the next IFT in my seasonal timing system happens to be 12/29/16.

Well, this post puts together all three of those. 2350 on 12/29? Bingo! And by coincidence 2350 would also get me to my minimum TSP retirement goal at year-end.
https://investingintelligent.com/2016/12/07/can-we-time-the-market/
 
Yep, about 4% more. That seems like a lot to ask in the 15 remaining trading days in 2016 when the index's are already so overbought, but that doesn't seem to be bothering anyone currently. Maybe the QQQ's and biotech's will get in gear and push it up there.
 
Just doing some simple math...

Tom shows the G fund return today as 0.0066%...multiply that by 365 days, that's 2.4%/year (which also coincides with the current TSP loan rate of 2.375%, I've noticed the two seem to track each other)....meanwhile the F fund is now down to a +2.00% return for 2016.

I think I just answered my question about whether to consider the F fund for my next move out of stocks...although, boy the MACD and RSI divergences sure seem to suggest a bounce in bonds is near...
AGG - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
...I'm never good at catching falling knives though...hmmm. :rolleyes:
 
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