Tsunami's Account Talk

[Tsunami]

https://federalnewsnetwork.com/tsp/...endor-to-take-the-plan-into-the-21st-century/

This part is good, maybe they can get it implemented before I die...

"Accenture will also help the FRTIB provide several new services, including a mutual fund window, electronic signature capabilities and a mobile app..."

But this is weird, how are they going to coordinate to get the daily share prices posted in a timely manner?

"BlackRock again will serve as the primary manager for the C, S, F and I funds. It will manage 80% of the S,F and I funds, and 90% of the C fund, McCaffrey said.
The FRTIB selected State Street Global Advisors as its second fund manager last month. It will manage the remaining 20% of the S, F and I funds, and 10% of the C fund, shares that range from $9.9 billion to nearly $22 billion."


I reached +9.66% yesterday, on the cusp of double digits, but wow some of the returns on the tracker for this year are impressive....80%?!

 

[Tsunami]

The anticipated return for the rest of the 2020s just gets worse and worse. Enjoy your cake now!

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc201116/

 

[nasa1974]

I reached +9.66% yesterday, on the cusp of double digits, but wow some of the returns on the tracker for this year are impressive....80%?!

Congrats.
We should ask Tom if anyone has finished any year on the Tracker higher than or equal to 80%. Talk about timing it just right.
I've been lucky. I rode my account in March to a minus 31.17% and yesterday I'm sitting at a plus 20.74%. Nothing fancy I just figured I'm going to stay in the "S" fund and see what happens. I still have 2 IFT's for the month and my two for December. Now comes the hard part. What to do for the rest of the year.

 

[Bullitt]

I stopped following John Hussman around April 2020. I just couldn't take him anymore. Guy seriously has an axe to grind.

 

[Tsunami]

I'm always on the lookout for more good links, even though I don't have the time to look at them all.
Here's one new to me.... Lots and lots of interesting charts every day here...

https://twitter.com/ISABELNET_SA

 

[Tsunami]

A few miscellaneous things...

I'm behind the curve in hearing about new ETFs. Here's a couple I discovered this week that are interesting. Does anyone else have any newer ETFs they like?

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QCLN/holdings?p=QCLN Way too much NIO in that fund. I prefer BYDDF in the EV space.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/qqqj/holdings?p=qqqj I like that one, not as much hype as the top 100 and they're probably growing faster.
So far it's outperforming QQQ: https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQJ:QQQ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p32848568560

I thought it's interesting and rather ominous that we're still getting a series of lower highs in the RSI on the monthly SPX chart. Tick tick tick...
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$...3464935&r=1441744741807&w=850&h=668&cmd=print

Some info on the Cathie Wood situation at ARK Investment funds for those that invest in her funds outside of the TSP like me:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/43...rk-invest-battle-resolute-investment-managers

 

[Bullitt]

QCLN trading at a 4% premium to NAV.

I'm not a fan of these niche "green" or ESG funds. With fees so low nowadays, if a fund company can eek out a little bit more to invest in "clean" stuff, then they are going to push it on their clients. The fact that everyone believes we'll some day be powering our entire grid by the sun, wind, and maybe hydro means there is a lot of good news baked into these types of investments. The growth in this space is nothing more than P/E expansion which is unsustainable over any longer time frame. Eventually those earnings need to catch up to the price - no matter how rosy the outlook.

 

[Tsunami]

Looks like Sparky got his 100% gain for 2020 today. Amazing.

 

[Bullitt]

Who?

 

[Tsunami]

Sparky714, at the top of the Autotracker. Just one well-timed move into the S fund in March is all it took.

 

[Whipsaw]

All hail Sparky714!! :hail:

 

[weatherweenie]

Along with the stones/courage to stay in.

Sparky714, at the top of the Autotracker. Just one well-timed move into the S fund in March is all it took.

 

[tsptalk]

Well done Tsunami! Please PM me your email address to receive your Amazon card!

Boom! the strong close on Dec. 31 pushed Tsunami into the winner's circle!

The Dow closed at 30,606

Incredibly only 19 points off the close. Well done!

The winner will get a $100 Amazon eGift Card

https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/site-new...70-guess-dow-contest-2020-a-4.html#post650076

 

[Tsunami]

Holy Cow, really?!

For the record, my 2020 returns included...
My TSP was +18.54% (would have been 20.70% if I hadn't forgot to click the Submit button on one of my IFTs)
My wife's TSP which I copy my moves for was +20.70%
My Roth IRA was up 197.9%, gulp. :smile: Thank you GBTC and ARK funds and other lucky trades.
That's going to fund a very long road trip next summer if Covid goes away. I'm tired of seeing my kids only 2-dimensionally and want to visit many of my favorite places in the west for extended periods...a few weeks at Mt. Rainier for example, and a few weeks on the Oregon coast.

 

[Tsunami]

I see two things that happened with AGG today that could result in at least a short term bottom for the F fund.

1) It penetrated the 200-dma then reversed back up and closed above it.
2) it bottomed one penny below the November low. That could have completed an A-B-C correction. Time will tell.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GBTC&p=D&yr=2&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51240362986&a=693978923

With the stock market streeeeetched to historic extremes, I wonder if we're close to a significant turn across the board...
https://northmantrader.com/2021/01/12/stretched-2/

Hussman's predicted forward return over the next 12 years is now negative 2% per year...
https://twitter.com/hussmanjp/status/1349092082099638274/photo/1

I don't think we're at a major top yet, but I'm seeing a lot of gurus pointing to around late April as a possibility.

 

[Tsunami]

Interesting stuff from Bridgewater regarding the decline of the U.S./west and rise of China and how to deal with it. The videos are interesting as you go through it, especially Dalio in the 2nd video...
https://www.bridgewater.com/research-and-insights/our-2021-global-outlook

Watching this ratio for a turn up could be very telling...
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FXI:SPY&p=D&yr=3&mn=1&dy=0&id=p32306403653

Edit: Regarding the mentions of "AltCoin"... https://www.coindesk.com/dalio-expe...sh-fund-says-bitcoin-wont-escape-our-scrutiny

 

[Tsunami]

Got silver? I've been buying calls in SLV, AGQ, AG and FSM...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wtxr_yXDXTo

 

[Tsunami]

So great to see Peter Eliades back at home finally. He's warning of "one of the most important tops of our lifetime", and if the chorus of other gurus I follow are correct I think he's right. It should be coming some time between late April and early June I think...short term, looks like one more drop this week, then comes the final hurrah rally to the top...

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmudNNXiLz_X-z4FzNkJ5rg

By the way, his software is great, I was one of the first subscribers last May and I love it...but you have to get a TradeStation account to get, and OMG is TradeStation awful!

I've been following this guy a while and he's been pretty good. His 4140 target for the top fits right into Eliades' software projection box.

https://twitter.com/masterpandawu

 

[Tsunami]

Every month Hussman comes up with new and interesting ways to say that the market is at the most extreme overvaluations in history, and every month it just goes higher.

"[FONT=&quot]I suspect that a near-vertical market plunge on the order of 25-35% is coming, probably quite shortly, most likely out of the blue, as in 1987, driven by nothing more than the sudden concerted effort of overextended investors to sell, and the need for a large price adjustment in order to induce scarce buyers to take the other side.[/FONT]"

Ignore at your own risk...I've met my 8% goal for the year and locked it in today, but will continue to look for quick trade opportunities every month.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc210315/

 

[tom4jean]

Every month Hussman comes up with new and interesting ways to say that the market is at the most extreme overvaluations in history, and every month it just goes higher.

"[FONT=&quot]I suspect that a near-vertical market plunge on the order of 25-35% is coming, probably quite shortly, most likely out of the blue, as in 1987, driven by nothing more than the sudden concerted effort of overextended investors to sell, and the need for a large price adjustment in order to induce scarce buyers to take the other side.[/FONT]"

Ignore at your own risk...I've met my 8% goal for the year and locked it in today, but will continue to look for quick trade opportunities every month.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc210315/

Say it long enough and eventually of course it will come to pass, because that's the history of the market. Then he pats himself on the back and says, "see I told you so". Meanwhile if you stayed out due to fear and followed that advice you made nothing...

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