I decided to bail out today since being retired I can't risk a huge drawdown and there's definitely risk of that now.
The seasonality of Mid-term election years should have the market heading up now, but this year is clearly different than a normal mid-term year where the main concern is just the upcoming election. That's hardly even on the radar this year.
I still expect a big rally at any time, possibly to as high as 4700, but by mid-March I think we'll see lower lows, even if only marginally lower, so I'm out.
I spent a lot of time this weekend going over the detailed math of my retirement budget projections and if I just stay parked in the G fund for the next 8 years until I turn 70, it would drain half of my TSP but I could do that, and achieve the goal of holding off on collecting SS until age 70 in order to maximize the benefit. At that point I might not even need the TSP income. If Hussman and others are correct (even my permabull guru Avi Gilburt is predicting a horrible decade-long bear market of at least 50% down, but he doesn't think it's started yet, he's said this in public articles on Seeking Alpha so I'm not giving anything away) there will be a bear market for at least that long, or at best a sideways market for over ten years, so that's a very real possibility...though I'm sure I'll not be able to resist trying to catch dead cat bounces nearly every month. So far this year that sure hasn't worked out. The real disaster for my budget and any retirees budget will be if this 7%+ or worse inflation keeps raging for years.
I'm reading a good book called "When Money Dies", all about the hyperinflation in Germany/Austria/Hungary after WWI, and the parallels to what is happening in the U.S. are getting scary.
