Tsunami's Account Talk

[Tsunami]

Do you have any good books you have read or online forum or information you like?? I already knew this ugly inflation and market period was coming so at least I was preparing for the onslaught.

Not sure what topic you mean regarding books and stuff, but...

Regarding preparing for retirement in general I recommend maxifiplanner.com. I subscribed for the last 3 years I was working and it helped me to verify my own spreadsheets to feel comfortable enough to retire.

Regarding social security, I also like Lawrence Kotlikoff's book "Get What's Yours" (spoiler alert, if you think you may live to your late 80s or longer then you really should try to hold out as long as you can before collecting) as well as his online software at https://maximizemysocialsecurity.com/

Closing down about 1%...doesn't look to me like a lasting bottom was set today, but it could bounce more for sure.

 

[felixthecat]

Not sure what topic you mean regarding books and stuff, but...

Regarding preparing for retirement in general I recommend maxifiplanner.com. I subscribed for the last 3 years I was working and it helped me to verify my own spreadsheets to feel comfortable enough to retire.

Regarding social security, I also like Lawrence Kotlikoff's book "Get What's Yours" (spoiler alert, if you think you may live to your late 80s or longer then you really should try to hold out as long as you can before collecting) as well as his online software at https://maximizemysocialsecurity.com/

Closing down about 1%...doesn't look to me like a lasting bottom was set today, but it could bounce more for sure.

Thanks for those links! I have been a couple of months into retirement already. So, I was mainly thinking about SS which you gave a link on and how to maximize monthly inflow. I have invested in retirement dividend stocks to help build some monthly income (like Birchtree…). I like to read books as well. I liked, “How to retire the Cheapskate Way” and Kevin Trudeau’s “Free Money They Don’t Want You To Know About”, and Suze Orman’s “Ultimate Retirement Guide”. Retirement looking good right now so feeling confident going forward.

 

[Tsunami]

A very sober look at where America is at right now, and it ain't pretty. We're in the final stages of the "ark" as Ray Dalio calls it.
Meanwhile China is ascending rapidly up their ark and about to overtake the U.S.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Okw4Q2Nnyc

 

[Tsunami]

Wow, the lowest % bulls reading since 1992!

https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/status/1514585299300622340?s=21&t=wXNh6-nlDaNBNAHWQK7K3A

 

[Tsunami]

Wow, the lowest % bulls reading since 1992!

https://twitter.com/bespokeinvest/status/1514585299300622340?s=21&t=wXNh6-nlDaNBNAHWQK7K3A

Putting that AAII report in perspective, as discussed on CNBC today it's pretty much garbage...

https://twitter.com/MasterPandaWu/status/1514645182934704129

 

[Bullitt]

My biggest takeaway from NAAIM is that the "pros" are just as clueless as the rest of us. A reading of below 30 marked the March 2020 low. We had a reading of 30 a few weeks ago. Like every other sentiment indicator, whenever too many people are on the starboard side of the boat, it's time to move to the port side. If you wait for that indicator to show a "bullish" reading, then you're too late.

The lowest bullish count since 1992 has to count for something, but memories of 2008 where we started getting very contrarian positive sentiment readings in October, only to be completely washed out after the bounce for the next six months.

 

[Tsunami]

2022 is the 13th year since 1950ish (not sure how far this data goes back) that the market was down 5% or more through April.
Here's what happened going forward the last 12 times. More red than white until you get to 12 months out. The odds favor lower lows in Sept/Oct of this year.
https://twitter.com/SJD10304/status/1520134064593797121/photo/1

Hussman's latest is as bleak as ever.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc220429/

I'm staying in scalping mode for now, but am not sure if the best opportunity to try to catch the knife in May will be as soon as Monday/Tuesday, or late in May.
My Peter Eliades price projection software suggests SPX could bounce as high as the 4400s in the next two weeks, but the target can't be known until it hits bottom and turns up strongly.
One important thing though is that all current downside projections were satisfied on Friday, but those projection boxes allow for deeper drops.
An example, this projection allows for an intraday drop to as low as 3872. But the top of the box has already been reached, so it doesn't have to go even one point lower.
If a rally carries up and through the red/blue offset lines, that would project a continued rally up to near all-time highs.
So that's why I say (for now) that I think a rally will be limited to the 4400s max...assuming this bear market isn't over.

 

[Tsunami]

Just for the record, yesterday I panicked and put in an IFT to move to G, but apparently it was another case where I screwed up and didn't hit the Submit button as the last step.
I just checked my account and I'm still 100% C fund, and there's no pending IFT to G.
What a stroke of luck that I was such a bonehead...assuming today's entire gain isn't lost on Monday, which is possible (https://twitter.com/MasterPandaWu/status/1525137966426779648).

 

[nasa1974]

Not to panic you, but that is assuming we can still make an IFT on Monday, May 16th. The FRTIB has been very vague on what will happen on the 16th and the 26th.

 

[Tsunami]

Not to panic you, but that is assuming we can still make an IFT on Monday, May 16th. The FRTIB has been very vague on what will happen on the 16th and the 26th.

They've been consistently saying noon on the 26th, so I'm holding them to that.

 

[nasa1974]

They've been consistently saying noon on the 26th, so I'm holding them to that.

Realistically the system should be down from Friday the 27th at noon and up and running by 9:30am Tuesday the 31st. That doesn't put any of our accounts in jeopardy.

 

[tsptalk]

They've been consistently saying noon on the 26th, so I'm holding them to that.

Who is saying that - the 26th? That is what I was assuming but I am hearing something different every day, and that's from people who have talked to TSP reps. The website seems to be purposely vague. :aargh4:

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi Tom, must drill down to the detail. :smile:

https://www.tsp.gov/new-tsp-features/key-transition-dates/?utm_source=website&utm_medium=alert&utm_campaign=getprepared1#Investments

 

[Tsunami]

Investors are used to blue skies again after a 20% drop. Not this time, I'm with Dimon that things are about to get worse...
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/01/jam...ricane-caused-by-the-fed-and-ukraine-war.html

This matches my thoughts, that we're eventually headed to the March 2020 low at a minimum...
https://thefelderreport.com/2022/06...teps-of-their-chinese-counterparts-part-deux/

Oh boy, a Hussman update...things have improved, instead of -5%/year for 12 years now we can expect around -3%/year...
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc220601/

 

[tsptalk]

I just read your post about your encounter with the TSP. Thanks. But I'm also interested in hearing about this 84-day vacation. Care to share your experiences as you go? Sounds like fun! :smile:

 

[PessOptimist]

I just read your post about your encounter with the TSP. Thanks. But I'm also interested in hearing about this 84-day vacation. Care to share your experiences as you go? Sounds like fun!

Yeah, me too. Being retired is great.
Back when I was working I requested over 60 days leave (use/lose) to go on a cruise/vacation. I had to interview with my supervisor before it would be approved. He read me some policy about getting another job while on leave. Seems a few fellow employees had been signing “traveler” contracts to work for other companies while on leave. Maybe not specifically illegal but this sup could not stand the idea of employees picking up several $k while on leave. So glad I no longer have to deal with people like that.
PO

 

[Epic]

....this sup could not stand the idea of employees picking up several $k while on leave. So glad I no longer have to deal with people like that.

Agree 100%
It's all about "CONTROL". It aint none of his business what you do on your time.
College wasn't for me, but I have 3 or 4 trades under my belt that I'm extremely good at, so side work has always been a thing. Very easy to pick up $500 to $1,500 clear on any given weekend or Saturday.
I know guys that made more from side work a year than they did from their normal job. :laugh:

 

[PessOptimist]

I made it to Bryce Canyon City, boy am I pooped, a long but fun day of driving/hiking and photos...I went up Cottonwood Canyon Rd....not for sedans like mine but I did it, 40 miles of rocks and bumps and washboard roads and just unbelievably beautiful scenery, and I only saw 3 other cars over 3 hours!
…
PessOptimist, yep I think I remember seeing that near the Glen Canyon Dam viewpoint. What the heck is that tunnel at the end of Tunnel Access Road for, do you know?

Been 20+ years since I drove down that thing. It is access to the power plant level. Could be quite exciting if you met a tour bus while driving a dually utility body truck. It is supposedly 22 feet wide but two 8 foot wide vehicles plus mirrors made it seem plenty close. Don’t know if busses still have access, likely not according to the below from the USBR site about the dam.

https://www.usbr.gov/uc/rm/crsp/gc/#vehicle
There is a two mile (3.2-kilometer) dam-access tunnel through the east wall of Glen Canyon that begins on the mesa. The tunnel was blasted prior to construction of Glen Canyon Dam in order to transport heavy equipment and supplies to the canyon floor. The holes in the wall are adits or “windows” that were initially blasted out for the purpose of allowing excavated rock to be dumped to the river banks below. The adits now allow for circulation of air in the tunnel. The dam-access tunnel is not open to the public.

Enjoy your trip and be careful.
PO

 

[Tsunami]

I just read your post about your encounter with the TSP. Thanks. But I'm also interested in hearing about this 84-day vacation. Care to share your experiences as you go? Sounds like fun! :smile:

Thanks for the posts about my trip everyone. Tom, I'm close to you right now and since the forecast is for flash flooding in Capitol Reef National Park (I'm in Torrey for 3 nights) I'm planning to switch days and go to Goblin State Park tomorrow.

I just finished updating a Google Photos page that I'm using to chronicle my trip. Today I added pics of Bryce Canyon and Devils Garden, which is 12 miles down the "Hole in the Wall" Road from Escalante. It was a perfect day, with the thunderstorms staying far enough away. The only downside is 7 of the 12 miles of road are of the horrible rough washboard type, not great for my Honda Accord Hybrid. But I'd been there once before and wasn't going to be deterred. My wife joins me next week, on day #21 when I get to Sacramento, for four days of visiting our kids in central California, then we head up into the Redwoods and slooowly up the Oregon coast. I love southern Utah so this is a highlight of my trip.

Here's the Google Photos page link. It's meant mostly for my family, but what the heck, enjoy! I'm finding that my cell phone actually takes better pics than my old Panasonic digital camera, but if I find time I'll eventually add photos from that camera as well, which includes some nice panoramic views. If you click on the first pic that will blow it up bigger, then you can scroll through them to read comments I've added to some of them.

https://photos.app.goo.gl/UJNZnrTpCLrxN1UB9

 

[tsptalk]

Very nice! Thanks for sharing.

Bryce Canyon is like being on a different planet.