Tsunami's Account Talk

[Tsunami]

A couple of gems during the interview of Jeffrey Gundlach on CNBC after the market close today....

"Some people say that we could see the best tax loss selling opportunity in a generation, I say in two generations." (meaning keep your powder dry until late December when the coming tax loss selling ends for some great bargains)
"there will be some eye popping returns coming in emerging markets once the dollar turns back down" (I plan to buy EEM and EPI specifically when that happens, maybe even long-term calls in EEM)

 

[weatherweenie]

If he's right, that would imply that the indices would be in store for additional drops.

A couple of gems during the interview of Jeffrey Gundlach on CNBC after the market close today....

"Some people say that we could see the best tax loss selling opportunity in a generation, I say in two generations." (meaning keep your powder dry until late December when the coming tax loss selling ends for some great bargains)
"there will be some eye popping returns coming in emerging markets once the dollar turns back down" (I plan to buy EEM and EPI specifically when that happens, maybe even long-term calls in EEM)

 

[Tsunami]

I finally finished Zeihan's book, The End of the World is Only the Beginning, an excellent read for anyone that cares about their future finances and choice of where to live and what careers to choose and more...
The situation outside of the U.S. is getting so bleak it makes me wonder how on earth the I fund has done so well lately. When reality catches up next year it won't be pretty.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5lz33mFSJxA

All of Zeihan's little videos are archived here: https://us11.campaign-archive.com/home/?u=de2bc41f8324e6955ef65e0c9&id=5654564be1

On my Peter Eliades price projection software, the 30-minute chart has just produced the following downside projection, and the hourly and daily charts will give a similar projection at the close today....just popped up on the hourly chart in fact, down to 3850 minimum. So more downside ahead is likely I think...then maybe a Santa rally, or maybe not....the offsets (the red and blue lines) allow for a rally first before getting down to the projection box, up to 4000ish perhaps...

 

[tsptalk]

Good stuff, Tsunami. A lot is going to happen in the next 5 trading days.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

 

[Tsunami]

I remember a year Morgan Stanley was being mocked for their bearish view. Turns out it wasn't bearish enough.

https://twitter.com/FerroTV/status/1477956710396485632

 

[Tsunami]

I may have found the solution to the last hurdle keeping me from rolling over my TSP to an IRA.

My two TD Ameritrade accounts (Roth IRA and a small taxable account) will be transferred to Schwab soon, the final phase of the merger between them. Until now access to the G fund has been the only thing keeping me from rolling over to an IRA, but today I learned that Schwab has funds that pay as well or better than the G fund, and apparently you can buy those funds in a Roth IRA. SWVXX is currently paying 4.04%...https://www.schwab.com/money-market-funds

There are no minimums, no fees to buy or sell, and the "ex" dates and "record" dates are daily per this summary.
https://schwab.bynder.com/m/6f8c499870cdc4e1/

The dividends are paid on the 15th of the month, not daily, but you do apparently accumulate the dividends daily, so you can buy/sell stocks/ETFs/funds to your hearts content, and put any idle cash into the money market fund you choose (then sell it when you want to buy a stock/ETF/stock fund) and then collect the money market dividends for the days you were in the fund.

Does anyone here have any experience with Schwab and can confirm what I'm seeing?

If this will work to take the place of the G fund, it's time for me to dump the TSP as soon as my accounts roll over to Schwab. No more TSP twice-a-month limits to buying and selling stocks and no more worries about losing the G fund, no dumb noon cutoff for buying stocks. No more restrictions to the three TSP stock funds. No more horrible website that doesn't even work (today the website froze when I tried to do my annual change of my monthly installment payment, which I initiated last week with the required phone call to cancel my current monthly withdrawal). Plus TDA's great Think or Swim trading platform will also be moved over to Schwab in 2023.

What am I missing?

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Hi Tsunami,
Sounds like a very good plan. Can you buy SWVXX in a traditional IRA account as well as Roth?
When rolling over TSP to outside IRA with company like Schwab or TD Ameritrade, must you roll over 100% of your TSP or can it be rolled over piecemeal?
Ex. If you have $600k in TSP, can you roll $200k in one year just to test it out before rolling over the rest? I don't see anything written about that. Thanks and best wishes to you! :smile:
P.S. I am hoping to retire at the end of 2023.

 

[Valkyrie]

Hi Tsunami,
Sounds like a very good plan. Can you buy SWVXX in a traditional IRA account as well as Roth?
When rolling over TSP to outside IRA with company like Schwab or TD Ameritrade, must you roll over 100% of your TSP or can it be rolled over piecemeal?
Ex. If you have $600k in TSP, can you roll $200k in one year just to test it out before rolling over the rest? I don't see anything written about that. Thanks and best wishes to you! :smile:
P.S. I am hoping to retire at the end of 2023.

partial withdraw is allowed per form TSP-99

 

[Valkyrie]

I may have found the solution to the last hurdle keeping me from rolling over my TSP to an IRA.

My two TD Ameritrade accounts (Roth IRA and a small taxable account) will be transferred to Schwab soon, the final phase of the merger between them. Until now access to the G fund has been the only thing keeping me from rolling over to an IRA, but today I learned that Schwab has funds that pay as well or better than the G fund, and apparently you can buy those funds in a Roth IRA. SWVXX is currently paying 4.04%...https://www.schwab.com/money-market-funds

There are no minimums, no fees to buy or sell, and the "ex" dates and "record" dates are daily per this summary.
https://schwab.bynder.com/m/6f8c499870cdc4e1/

The dividends are paid on the 15th of the month, not daily, but you do apparently accumulate the dividends daily, so you can buy/sell stocks/ETFs/funds to your hearts content, and put any idle cash into the money market fund you choose (then sell it when you want to buy a stock/ETF/stock fund) and then collect the money market dividends for the days you were in the fund.

Does anyone here have any experience with Schwab and can confirm what I'm seeing?

If this will work to take the place of the G fund, it's time for me to dump the TSP as soon as my accounts roll over to Schwab. No more TSP twice-a-month limits to buying and selling stocks and no more worries about losing the G fund, no dumb noon cutoff for buying stocks. No more restrictions to the three TSP stock funds. No more horrible website that doesn't even work (today the website froze when I tried to do my annual change of my monthly installment payment, which I initiated last week with the required phone call to cancel my current monthly withdrawal). Plus TDA's great Think or Swim trading platform will also be moved over to Schwab in 2023.

What am I missing?

suggest one take a look at my thread. I'm going to transfer into an annuity. in 10 yrs will get about 18%/yr while getting a monthly payment sent to me. at end of 10 yrs will be back at original principle plus have the monthly payments, so about 45% gain in 10 yrs.

 

[Whipsaw]

Not sure how 4% relates to a 7-day yield, but the performance figures are much lower.

SWVXX | Schwab Value Advantage Money Fund® - Investor Shares | Schwab Asset Management

SWVXX | Schwab Value Advantage Money Fund;Investor Overview | MarketWatch

 

[Skorcher]

The net expense ratio on SWVXX is 0.34% which is nearly 7x higher than the G fund.

 

[weatherweenie]

The price of freedom?

The net expense ratio on SWVXX is 0.34% which is nearly 7x higher than the G fund.

 

[Tsunami]

Hi Tsunami,
Sounds like a very good plan. Can you buy SWVXX in a traditional IRA account as well as Roth?
When rolling over TSP to outside IRA with company like Schwab or TD Ameritrade, must you roll over 100% of your TSP or can it be rolled over piecemeal?
Ex. If you have $600k in TSP, can you roll $200k in one year just to test it out before rolling over the rest? I don't see anything written about that. Thanks and best wishes to you! :smile:
P.S. I am hoping to retire at the end of 2023.

I haven't 100% verified that, but the guy that posted about it elsewhere says he has an IRA and he parks money in that fund all the time, and the material about the money market funds on schwab.com seems to indicate there are no restrictions on the type of accounts where you can use those funds. So it sounds like you can, and it's not restricted to 401K's only.
I'm also pretty sure you can roll over part of your TSP to an IRA, but am no expert on that. I'd roll over the entire thing if I do it and be done with the TSP for good. Today is another day where if the deadline was 4 pm I probably would have waited...but it very well could be that the Santa rally is now underway and this morning was the bottom.

One more year! It will go so fast. I can't believe I've now been retired for four years, wow...I still have weird dreams about retirement day though, bizarre stuff that always includes people I worked with over my career.

I'm joining you in the stock funds today, and after watching Sven's video just now https://vimeo.com/783043772/4ef73228a6 I'm starting to think we'll get much more than just a Santa Rally and it could keep going up to 4300+ by mid-February.
Getting through the 3950-4000 zone will convince me. First things first though, there could be one more drop over the next day or two down to 3750ish. I'll close my eyes and watch bowl games or something while that happens.

Today I completed my new monthly installment payment process, the new amount will start with the mid-January payment.
I had to use Edge since for some reason it wasn't getting to the end of the process using Chrome.

 

[Tsunami]

The net expense ratio on SWVXX is 0.34% which is nearly 7x higher than the G fund.

But it's paying 4.04% currently, better than the G fund, so that's the bottom line.
I'd even settle for less, I just want a fund that never goes down and earns a decent return above zero.
I'd always thought that doesn't exist outside of 401K accounts...e.g, my brother's retirement choices uses mostly Vanguard funds, and one he has access to is Vanguard's "Retirement Savings Trust II" account, earning around 1.7% right now based on the 0.43% earned in the last quarter.....
https://institutional.vanguard.com/investments/product-details/fund/0338

 

[jonfresno]

I trust the tsptalk "Guess the Dow" participants far more than this crew...

I remember a year Morgan Stanley was being mocked for their bearish view. Turns out it wasn't bearish enough.

https://twitter.com/FerroTV/status/1477956710396485632

 

[Tsunami]

Not sure how 4% relates to a 7-day yield, but the performance figures are much lower.

SWVXX | Schwab Value Advantage Money Fund® - Investor Shares | Schwab Asset Management

SWVXX | Schwab Value Advantage Money Fund;Investor Overview | MarketWatch

The high dividends on these funds is a very recent thing. From the chart on page 1 of the Fact Sheet I see the rates was essentially zero until March of this year.
They hold very short term paper with a maturity of a couple of weeks, so they've been able to jack up the returns quickly this year.
The question will be if high rates are here to stay, or if rates will come tumbling back down toward zero when the coming recession starts. Time will tell.
I just opened my Roth IRA in TD Ameritrade and I see that I can buy SWVXX now in that account, just like any other mutual fund, with no fees.
Like any mutual fund (and like the TSP) the buys and sells are effective at 4 pm eastern time.
So I could park cash there now if I wasn't such an active trader in that account, and now I'm convinced I could do it with my TSP $$ as well once I'm rolled over into a traditional IRA with Schwab.
I wouldn't even need to wait until my TDA accounts transfer to Schwab in fact, I could do it now. Hmm.

 

[Tsunami]

"[FONT=&quot]normalized SKEW is actually [/FONT]better correlated with subsequent market returns[FONT=&quot] than other popular sentiment indicators, including the Investors Intelligence and American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) surveys. The correlation isn’t tight enough to place confidence in the current implication – a striking loss in the S&P 500 over the coming 6 months – but it’s enough to suggest that investors have probably ruled out tail-risk to a greater extent than may be good for them.[/FONT]"

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc221219/

 

[Tsunami]

I remember Gundlach saying in November that tax loss selling this year would be brutal and not to buy stocks until it was over. Well, he was right about the selling, and today was the last day for tax loss selling since it takes 2 days for stock sales to settle.

Rally time?

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jeff-gundlach-stock-market-rally-derailed-by-tax-loss-sales-2022-11

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/tax-loss-selling-battered-us-stocks-could-spur-january-snap-back-2022-12-08/

“I think there’s going to be pretty big tax loss sales. I even got a white paper from someone saying this is the biggest tax loss selling opportunity of a generation. I would say it could be two generations,” Gundlach said.
https://ukdaily.news/jeff-gundlach-says-every-stock-market-rally-is-derailed-by-tax-loss-selling-179284.html

 

[JTH]

I remember Gundlach saying in November that tax loss selling this year would be brutal and not to buy stocks until it was over. Well, he was right about the selling, and today was the last day for tax loss selling since it takes 2 days for stock sales to settle.

Rally time?

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jeff-gundlach-stock-market-rally-derailed-by-tax-loss-sales-2022-11

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/tax-loss-selling-battered-us-stocks-could-spur-january-snap-back-2022-12-08/

“I think there’s going to be pretty big tax loss sales. I even got a white paper from someone saying this is the biggest tax loss selling opportunity of a generation. I would say it could be two generations,” Gundlach said.
https://ukdaily.news/jeff-gundlach-says-every-stock-market-rally-is-derailed-by-tax-loss-selling-179284.html

True, I've already maxed out mine, but still have some more "dead money" lined up for next year, that I need to put to work.

 

[Tsunami]

This chart by Sven...
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1611387727060127745
...just looks so bullish to me, along with other things I see like a new NYSE McClellan Oscillator ("NYMO") "T" that has emerged and projects a rally to at least Feb 9th...
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$...2966307&a=269536931&r=1450045167343&cmd=print
(the downtrend line since the top in NYMO in late October has been decisively broken, so just counting the number of days from the 10/28/22 top down to the 12/29/22 bottom, which is the center post...is 35 days, including Veterans Day...and 35 days from there is Feb 9th)

I have to lean bullish and I moved 50% in today and plan to move the rest in if the coming pullback looks corrective. If one of my gurus is right 4300 to 4500 is coming this spring/summer, before the next big drop gets underway. The Dow might even get to a record high.