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Tsunami's Account Talk
- Thread starter Tsunami
- Start date
Tsunami
Well-known member
"...DOW may get to a record high." Don't get greedy
The FTSE hit a record high today. 10% to 4300 seems doable, and it could come pretty quick.
Tsunami
Well-known member
There sure have been a lot of bullish calls this week, Walter Deemer among them:
https://twitter.com/walterdeemer
I see that a much larger than usual group of people bailed out to G today. A wave 2 down is due, so that could work well if you're smart/lucky enough to get back in on the right day in the next week or two.
Maybe the debt ceiling limit being reached next Thursday will cause some angst and downward movement in the US markets next week?
I saw that Yellen announced "extraordinary measures" will be used to keep the government going.
Step #1 is always to "borrow" federal employees G fund money.
https://twitter.com/walterdeemer
I see that a much larger than usual group of people bailed out to G today. A wave 2 down is due, so that could work well if you're smart/lucky enough to get back in on the right day in the next week or two.
Maybe the debt ceiling limit being reached next Thursday will cause some angst and downward movement in the US markets next week?
I saw that Yellen announced "extraordinary measures" will be used to keep the government going.
Step #1 is always to "borrow" federal employees G fund money.
Tsunami
Well-known member
This drop to 3890 is exactly what I expected, and yet when you watch it happen in real-time it sure frays the nerves.
Cem Karsan is very high on my list of gurus I pay attention to and he's bullish into mid-February, and if things don't derail then, into May...
https://twitter.com/TDANetwork/status/1616166521780289541
Cem Karsan is very high on my list of gurus I pay attention to and he's bullish into mid-February, and if things don't derail then, into May...
https://twitter.com/TDANetwork/status/1616166521780289541
Tsunami
Well-known member
Wow things are looking bullish. On this screenshot of a chart in my Peter Eliades price projection software, I've drawn in the downtrend line over the last year.
It sits at 4021 today (if you use the December high as the 2nd point of the line), and 4018 tomorrow.
I doubt it gets through there today but it's possible. If not, a pullback to 3960ish would be good, then it will be ready to blast though.
The big news to me is that this particular set of long-term offsets (189 and 194 days) could be broken at around 4200 in February, and if so there will be a projection up to around 4800.
There's already a confirmed projection to 4400ish, but this longer term one would call for likely record highs.
The Fed won't like that LOL. I have to be super bullish at this point.
Oh one more thing, here's a very interesting interview by Phillip Anderson, a real estate cycles guy...he thinks the housing market is about to blast off again for the final phase of the 18.6 year cycle, into early 2026:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RndBKEvl2LQ (the subtitles are rather hilarious if you follow them)
Also note the recent inverse H&S pattern, and if you go back to the August high, there's a very clear/nice and bullish cup and handle pattern.
Sven shows the inverse H&S and cup and handle patterns here: https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1617553336009633795
Holy cr@p, while I was typing it blasted through the down trend line...
It sits at 4021 today (if you use the December high as the 2nd point of the line), and 4018 tomorrow.
I doubt it gets through there today but it's possible. If not, a pullback to 3960ish would be good, then it will be ready to blast though.
The big news to me is that this particular set of long-term offsets (189 and 194 days) could be broken at around 4200 in February, and if so there will be a projection up to around 4800.
There's already a confirmed projection to 4400ish, but this longer term one would call for likely record highs.
The Fed won't like that LOL. I have to be super bullish at this point.
Oh one more thing, here's a very interesting interview by Phillip Anderson, a real estate cycles guy...he thinks the housing market is about to blast off again for the final phase of the 18.6 year cycle, into early 2026:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RndBKEvl2LQ (the subtitles are rather hilarious if you follow them)
Also note the recent inverse H&S pattern, and if you go back to the August high, there's a very clear/nice and bullish cup and handle pattern.
Sven shows the inverse H&S and cup and handle patterns here: https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1617553336009633795
Holy cr@p, while I was typing it blasted through the down trend line...
Last edited:
Tsunami
Well-known member
They are "offsets" of the past price, in this case the S&P 500, but I can chart anything, in any timeframe.
In this case it's the past price of SPX moved to the right by 189 and 194 days. Seems like magic but this is what was developed by Hurst over 50 years ago and Peter Eliades has spent his career refining/perfecting it.
Here's another chart projection that has just popped up, a 65 minute chart (Peter uses 65 minutes since that conveniently carves a trading day up into 6 bars of equal time).
This projection has 77% odds of being met historically (the software tells you that), so I have high confidence it will get to 4100.
The projections become "invalidated" if the price moves back below both offset lines, and new projections are confirmed when price goes through the lines, in either directions. It's super simple once you get it, and quite accurate and useful for trading.
On this chart I clicked on the projection box so that it shows how it's calculated. You simply take the lowest price, in this case 3885, and measure up to the point where it crosses each line, and that gives you the projection of the bottom and top of the green box above, just calculate and equal distance...and you magically know where the market is heading.
I can use the software to project "what if" scenarios by using different offsets (there are around 7 to 9 sets of them depending on the timeframe), and you can see into the future. If I do that now it's telling me there are decent odds of all-time highs in SPX this year, up to 4800 or higher.
You can watch Peter's free videos here, but note that he's a permabear and just can't help himself from ignoring the bullish projections. I just ignore that and use his TA and software to come to my own conclusions, and I have to be very bullish right now. https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmudNNXiLz_X-z4FzNkJ5rg
For a subscription, you can do that here, it's not cheap but for me it's paid for itself a thousand times over. My TradeStation account was up 75% last year for example:
https://www.stockmarketcycles.com/ Peter is 84 I think, so he might not be doing this much longer.
Just eyeballing this chart, in order for the projection to 4102 to stay valid, price has to stay above the red/blue offsets...so what I think will happen is it will dip down tomorrow and/or Wednesday...during that period where the offsets dip down, then it will head back up and get to 4102...so I'd be inclined to wait until tomorrow to put more money in.
Thanks for all you do
Tsunami
Well-known member
Going back to 2004, February 1[SUP]st[/SUP] ranks as the 9[SUP]th[/SUP] best day of the entire year for the C fund, and the 5[SUP]th[/SUP] best day of the year for the S fund.
In fact, the S fund has been up 16 of the last 19 years on 2/1, and only 2/1/2014 was a big down day.
Hopefully the Fed won’t mess it up this year!
In fact, the S fund has been up 16 of the last 19 years on 2/1, and only 2/1/2014 was a big down day.
Hopefully the Fed won’t mess it up this year!
JTH
Well-known member
Tsunami
Well-known member
Well, I finally ran out of reasons not to do it, so I did it.
Today I opened a traditional IRA rollover account with TD Ameritrade (selected since I've had two other accounts with them for over 20 years, including my Roth IRA, and I really like them).
Then I entered the new account number and mailing address in my TSP account. Now I just need to wait through the dumb mandatory 7-day waiting period after entering the address, then I will complete the rollover, and be done with the TSP forever. :nana:
Wow, the entire planet is on a buy signal...
https://twitter.com/martin_pring/status/1621249348460765186/photo/1
Today I opened a traditional IRA rollover account with TD Ameritrade (selected since I've had two other accounts with them for over 20 years, including my Roth IRA, and I really like them).
Then I entered the new account number and mailing address in my TSP account. Now I just need to wait through the dumb mandatory 7-day waiting period after entering the address, then I will complete the rollover, and be done with the TSP forever. :nana:
Wow, the entire planet is on a buy signal...
https://twitter.com/martin_pring/status/1621249348460765186/photo/1
I plan on doing the same thing with Edward Jones. But before I do, I will move everything into the "G" fund. I might miss out on a rally, but I won't take a big hit before everything transfers.
JTH
Well-known member
Damm, I still have this document, I did this in Mar 2021, my brokerage signed it, but I still need to get it notarized. Wonder if I could still use this document, or I need to start over.
I have to drive 4 hours to the nearest consulate to get it notarized, sort of a PIA.
Tsunami
Well-known member
There's nothing to get notarized as part of the process. I'll move to G late next week, assuming we get the short-term top I'm expecting then (this morning's drop should be finishing a small wave 4), then initiate the rollover.
My wife will get an email from TSP to OK it.
I had to change TD Ameritrade's address in my TSP account this morning, so that probably started a new 7-day waiting period that will end next Friday.
This a good guide on what to expect for the process...
https://www.barfieldfinancial.com/new-blog/tsp-to-ira-transfer-a-how-to
JTH
Well-known member
Thanks for the follow-up I checked, apparently the process has changed (for the better) so I've put in the address and will wait 7 days.
I will be be very happy to have more control over these funds, I should have done this after I retired, but living overseas slows things down a bit.
papahotel66
Member
I'm starting this process too. Retired 12/31 (ATC). Opened Schwab acct. Now initiating rollover. Talked to TSP specialist because I didn't feel the site was that intuitive and wanted some guidance. Specialist had no idea about special rules regarding penalties on early withdrawals before 59 1/2 for ATC, LEO, FF, etc. The new site is a disaster and at least one person at TSP doesn't know the rules. I'm going to leave some in TSP but most of it is going to an IRA. Time to get the money away from the Government...
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