Tsunami's Account Talk

[Epic]

I submitted my TSP full withdrawal today...my wife has "acknowledged" it in DocuSign...so now I just wait for the check to be mailed out (should be tomorrow) and get to the brokerage.

I'm free!

​Congratulations !!!!!!! Hope you stick around to comment from time to time and let us know how things work out for you. :beerchug:

 

[Tsunami]

Rollover update...my TSP funds were deposited into my TD Ameritrade IRA this afternoon. I discovered that after getting back to the ship after a few hours exploring George Town.I was able to place the trade to get about 98% of the funds into SWVXX as of today's close, so now I'm earning about 1% more than the G fund until I'm ready to deploy it elsewhere at a major market low. It was such a good feeling to be able to move the funds after 12 noon LOL, and in fact while sitting in our stateroom overlooking Grand Cayman island no less. Onward to Aruba we go...

 

[nasa1974]

Loved Aruba. The first time we rode trikes all over the island with four other couples. The second time we went snorkeling.
What cruise line are you on?

 

[Tsunami]

We're on the Norwegian Dawn...no complaints other than the expensive unlimited Wi-Fi upgrade still results in painfully slow internet. That's probably true for all ships though.
Kinda funny that at 62 I still feel like I'm one of the youngsters on this cruise.
I think cruise lines are in big trouble once all these octogenarians are done cruising.

Your trike ride reminds me of the excursion that I have the fondest memory of on our Alaska cruise a decade ago was renting a jeep in Skagway and driving inland into Canada for 100 mile or so, into "Gold Rush" country.

 

[nasa1974]

We have taken a few cruises over the years. Will be on Royal Caribbean Oasis of the Seas this month. First time on Royal Caribbean. I haven't been on a cruise ship since December 2019. This will be the first time on a cruise without my wife since she passed from cancer. Yeah, Wi-fi on ships is expensive and really slow.

 

[ravensfan]

We have taken a few cruises over the years. Will be on Royal Caribbean Oasis of the Seas this month. First time on Royal Caribbean. I haven't been on a cruise ship since December 2019. This will be the first time on a cruise without my wife since she passed from cancer. Yeah, Wi-fi on ships is expensive and really slow.

Nasa, Royal Caribbean is an awesome cruise line. My last cruise with my wife was December 2019 as we attended the High Seas Rally (motorcycle rally on a cruise ship). As you know, I lost my wife this past summer to ALS, but I'm thinking maybe summer of 2024 for an Alaska cruise with Royal Caribbean. Hope you have a great time and of course, we expect a full report.

 

[Tsunami]

On the last day of our cruise today. Had a great time, great memories (especially St. Lucia and St. Thomas)...until my wife caught Covid 2 days ago...just a very mild case, like a mild head cold...and she got Paxlovid right away which I presume is helping...but it put a big damper on the end of the trip since we're quarantined...at least we're getting all the free food we can eat with no room delivery charges as a benefit LOL. Somehow I'm still covid-free, amazingly. We've seen people lined up at the medical center sick, and dozens of people around the ship coughing and sniffing, all unknowingly with Covid...Norwegian hasn't told passengers about it. Yikes. The average age on this ship has to be well over 65, and there's been several "code alpha" events and at least one death (not from Covid)...seems to me that once all the Baby Boomers are gone the cruise industry will die.

Anyway....the reason for my post...if the All-In billionaire guys are worried about the SVB situation, we all should be. Their conversation is a must-listen I think...if the government doesn't step in Monday there could be a catastrophe in regional/small banks this week...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEee7dAk25c

Man, I can't believe I'm up to #18 in the tracker just by sitting in cash....which I'm doing in my new IRA as well. I was planning on trying to time a bottom as soon as this week and dive in at least partially, but now I'm not so sure. the 4.5% I'm earning in SWVXX is just fine....unless Schwab/TDA goes under...hard to imagine that when they're the 2nd largest broker...

 

[PessOptimist]

what ship are you on?

 

[Tsunami]

what ship are you on?

Norwegian Dawn

The arrival in Tampa today was a nightmare. First, they were oblivious to the time change to Daylight Savings Time, they literally didn't know!...so they were an hour late...then they couldn't figure out how to set up the gangway on level 7, so had to have every single person leave off of one smaller gangway down on level 7...there were 100's of irate people yelling, and staff yelling back at the passengers for being upset...I wonder how many people missed flights.
The group of Covid passengers was supposed to get off first and get their luggage first...that was complete FUBAR.
The staff at the gangway kept trying to turn the members of this "C-Class" as they call us away, only one person knew we were supposed to be there in this first group.
One poor elderly lady passed out and was taken by stretcher to the medical center, she was deathly ill and needed emergency care off the ship and they just couldn't get that done.
Once off the ship, we watched our bags go right by us...but the staff controlling the crowds wouldn't let the "C-Class" group go get their bags since they had no clue what was going on.
So for 55 minutes we stood outside guarded by confused staff and watched the entire rest of the ships' 2500 passengers parade past us...we ended up being nearly last to get our bags since they couldn't locate them...so the sick passengers were last. Just horrific.
We won't be going on Norwegian again...the non-existent Wi-Fi was bad enough...there were entire days where I could only bring up one web page per hour, if at all, and there were other problems like the lack of organization of getting people to their excursion rendezvous points, and they cancelled one of the best ports (St. Kitts), but the fact that they hid the Covid situation from all passengers on the ship (everywhere we went there were many people coughing on each other, not knowing they had Covid) was just awful.

 

[PessOptimist]

Norwegian Dawn

The arrival in Tampa today was a nightmare. First, they were oblivious to the time change to Daylight Savings Time, they literally didn't know!...so they were an hour late...then they couldn't figure out how to set up the gangway on level 7, so had to have every single person leave off of one smaller gangway down on level 7...there were 100's of irate people yelling, and staff yelling back at the passengers for being upset...I wonder how many people missed flights.
The group of Covid passengers was supposed to get off first and get their luggage first...that was complete FUBAR.
The staff at the gangway kept trying to turn the members of this "C-Class" as they call us away, only one person knew we were supposed to be there in this first group.
One poor elderly lady passed out and was taken by stretcher to the medical center, she was deathly ill and needed emergency care off the ship and they just couldn't get that done.
Once off the ship, we watched our bags go right by us...but the staff controlling the crowds wouldn't let the "C-Class" group go get their bags since they had no clue what was going on.
So for 55 minutes we stood outside guarded by confused staff and watched the entire rest of the ships' 2500 passengers parade past us...we ended up being nearly last to get our bags since they couldn't locate them...so the sick passengers were last. Just horrific.
We won't be going on Norwegian again...the non-existent Wi-Fi was bad enough...there were entire days where I could only bring up one web page per hour, if at all, and there were other problems like the lack of organization of getting people to their excursion rendezvous points, and they cancelled one of the best ports (St. Kitts), but the fact that they hid the Covid situation from all passengers on the ship (everywhere we went there were many people coughing on each other, not knowing they had Covid) was just awful.

Sorry to hear that your cruise didn’t go well.
I haven’t been on one for 9 years and that was Holland America. Wife did a Royal Carribbean Southampton UK to NJ and said it was not as good as in the past. Complaints about wifi and cell phone and service in general.
I am booked on Norwegian Pearl from Boston to Bermuda and back. With two kids (in their 40s so not really kids), DIL and four grandkids. 21-28 April. So far no notifications about Covid testing or vaccines being required. We cancelled this trip twice before due to Covid. Your news doesn’t make me feel great about it. Think it’s too late to cancel now.
Again, sorry your cruise was less than great.

PO

 

[Tsunami]

Great analysis/commentary by Daniel Amerman: SVP And Collapsing Global Financial Defenses by Daniel Amerman Is it just fear mongering, or reality we all need to be aware of? I lean toward the latter, but what does the average Joe/Jane do about it to protect ourselves? Where do we park our money to be safe?And even if we're lucky and avoid the bulk of a financial collapse, with everything collapsing all around us does it even matter? You won't be able to go to the grocery store and buy eggs with a gold coin, or bitcoin. Yikes, welcome to the Fourth Turning.

 

[Tsunami]

A graphic look at how the financial world changed starting on March 8th...https://twitter.com/toby_n/status/1638075763206283265

"Every speculative mania which has run its course of folly and disaster in this country has derived its original impulse from cheap money.”– The Economist, 1858 https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc230319/

 

[Tsunami]

Woo hoo, looks like my Green Chili Cheeseburgers emerged victorious...


So....One thing about the folks that leave the TSP, you never hear about how they did out there in the real world. I always wonder if the infinite opportunities to screw up your account in an IRA would result in diminished returns if I left.
If I remember, I'll plan to update how I'm doing in my new traditional IRA quarterly. So, for the first update...
When I left the TSP on February 21st I was up 7.11% for 2023, and remained at that level for a week until the funds showed up in my IRA just an hour before the close on 2/28.
For March, I gained 3.81% in the IRA, so for the YTD I'm up +11.19%.
Looks like that would have me at #15 in the tracker.
I've now got the IRA set up with exactly 50 high dividend equities...about 2% in each of them, lots of diversity...things like preferred stocks, REITs, closed-end funds, baby bonds, business development companies, and energy companies (all selected with the help of Rida Morwa's great "High Dividends Opportunities" service on SeekingAlpha.com). My overall yield is currently a fantastic 10.79%, and year-end "special" dividends will push it over 11%....but....

I worry about what lies ahead for the market right here. Most gurus have thrown in the towel and are bullish, expecting at least 4300 by June.
But it worries me that sentiment is suddenly so one-sided. I can only find two remaining bears among the gurus I follow, and most of the short-term bullish gurus expect a 30%+ drop once we get to a peak over 4300.
I'll have a hard time not selling much of my portfolio if/when I think we're at a major top.
I'll likely do that (not everything, things like preferred stocks and baby bonds don't go down much in share price and just keep pumping out dividends), and put those funds back into SWVXX (now earning 4.68%) and/or SH to short the S&P 500. So many options!....I know, I'll put it all in bitcoin!!

Lastly....so happy that my first grandson was born yesterday...an April Fool LOL...and a second one is due in August...on top of the two granddaughters already lighting up my life.
I went out and bought a USA Today ($3) and Wall Street Journal ($6), to give him when he turns 16 or 18 or whatever, so he can see what was happening on his birthday...
He'll probably say "wow, these only cost $9 back then?!". LOL

 

[bleeck]

I'm looking to move away from TSP also, so I always look forward to your posts. Thanks, and congratulations on the great life happenings for you. Good luck.

 

[Tsunami]

I'm seeing a lot of bullish stuff this weekend, but the most bullish to me is that on Friday 3/31 the eleventh ZBT signal since 1970 occurred.
It's almost always very bullish. Here's a nice summary of past signals...

https://twitter.com/CyclesFan/status/1642195259319877636

 

[Tsunami]

Quite the blow-off the last couple of days. Is this a top? Don't know, but it does fit Cem Karsan's prediction of a blow-off top perfectly so far...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CPBWY5Jk9o
https://twitter.com/jam_croissant/status/1664748284278194180

Also, a big red flag for me is that the UE rate has finally moved above the moving average on this chart, which (unless it was a one-month anomaly) means the economy is now entering a recession...
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p46880709107&a=442365228
That indicator is one of the best there is to warn of an impending recession...
https://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2016/02/uetrend/

I'm still in the camp that this is a cyclical rally within a secular bear market, and the bear is getting hungry and in the coming weeks it will begin feeding off of the massive new pile of Treasury paper.

 

[felixthecat]

Awesome post. Want some crumps. Will watch and head for the exit this week.

Quite the blow-off the last couple of days. Is this a top? Don't know, but it does fit Cem Karsan's prediction of a blow-off top perfectly so far...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7CPBWY5Jk9o
https://twitter.com/jam_croissant/status/1664748284278194180

Also, a big red flag for me is that the UE rate has finally moved above the moving average on this chart, which (unless it was a one-month anomaly) means the economy is now entering a recession...
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p46880709107&a=442365228
That indicator is one of the best there is to warn of an impending recession...
https://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2016/02/uetrend/

I'm still in the camp that this is a cyclical rally within a secular bear market, and the bear is getting hungry and in the coming weeks it will begin feeding off of the massive new pile of Treasury paper.

 

[Tsunami]

No comments needed, hilarious...
https://twitter.com/jam_croissant/status/1667778578963128321/photo/1

Just doing a little math...IF (big if) Friday was the top, then if the next wave down equals the first wave down in time and price (from 1/2/22 to 10/14/22), then SPX would bottom on 3/21/24 near 3000.
That's an interesting date since it almost matches the 3/23/2020 Covid panic low, and it would be in the same year of the Presidential Cycle as well.

 

[Tsunami]

So....One thing about the folks that leave the TSP, you never hear about how they did out there in the real world. I always wonder if the infinite opportunities to screw up your account in an IRA would result in diminished returns if I left.
If I remember, I'll plan to update how I'm doing in my new traditional IRA quarterly. So, for the first update...
When I left the TSP on February 21st I was up 7.11% for 2023, and remained at that level for a week until the funds showed up in my IRA just an hour before the close on 2/28.
For March, I gained 3.81% in the IRA, so for the YTD I'm up +11.19%.

Hello TSP'ers...Quarterly update...adjusted for my monthly withdrawals, for 2023 YTD my IRA is now up 12.7%. A rather crappy quarter gaining just 1.5%, but at least it's positive and doing it's job for a happy retirement.
Seems like to make big money so far this year you have to have had high exposure to the Elite 8 tech stocks. When those top I wouldn't want to be on that boat.

 

[Tsunami]

A fun fact...

For the S&P 500 and C fund, the all-time closing high was on 1/3/2022, and the intra-day record high of 4818 was on 1/4/2022.
The closing low for the bear market was on 10/12/2022, and the intra-day low was on 10/13/2022. Both were 195 trading days from the respective January 2022 highs.
If you count forward 195 trading days, yesterday was 195 trading days from 10/12/2022, and today will be 195 trading days from 10/13/2022.

So perhaps we get a spike high today after the Fed news, to complete that matching pair of bookends?

Looking ahead, if this in fact turns out to be a major top, as a small/dwindling number of gurus think, then 195 trading days from 7/25/23 & 7/26/23 would be 5/3/24 and 5/6/24.