Tsunami's Account Talk

Yes, but can you afford to retire? That's going to be my sticking point in 2022. At the rate I've been going these last few years I will need to stick around another 5 years past my eligible retirement date to be able to afford retirement.

I could retire now if I really despised my job or needed to for health or other reasons, but if nothing changes I'll go between 1 and 3 years longer, depending on several moving parts. One of the moving parts holding up my retiring soon is the Windfall Elimination Provision. I won't reach 30 years of "substantial earnings" paying into social security until March 2019. I'm watching H.R. 711 closely though. It now has over 120 sponsors from both sides of the aisle https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/house-bill/711/cosponsors and if Congress gets off their duff and passes it this year that will eliminate that part of the equation for me and I'll likely go within 2 years.
 
I could retire now if I really despised my job or needed to for health or other reasons, but if nothing changes I'll go between 1 and 3 years longer, depending on several moving parts. One of the moving parts holding up my retiring soon is the Windfall Elimination Provision. I won't reach 30 years of "substantial earnings" paying into social security until March 2019. I'm watching H.R. 711 closely though. It now has over 120 sponsors from both sides of the aisle https://www.congress.gov/bill/114th-congress/house-bill/711/cosponsors and if Congress gets off their duff and passes it this year that will eliminate that part of the equation for me and I'll likely go within 2 years.

Would the Windfall Elimination Provision apply to you as a federal employee? I copied this from the ssa.gov website

"The Windfall Elimination Provision doesn’t apply if:





                1. You’re a federal worker first hired after December 31, 1983;
                2. You were employed on December 31, 1983, by a nonprofit organization that didn’t withhold Social Security taxes from your pay at first, but then began withholding Social Security taxes;
                3. Your only pension is for railroad employment;
                4. The only work you performed for which you didn’t pay Social Security taxes was before 1957; or
                5. You have 30 or more years of substantial earnings under Social Security."


https://www.ssa.gov/pubs/EN-05-10045.pdf
 
Also following the WEP TS. I am eligible for SSA now but continue to postpone because I'd like the provision to be in effect before I decide to claim anything through SSA. Appreciate all the work that NARFE does for us. It will provide a nice benefit to my monthly SSA if it passes. Congrats on being retirement eligible. It's really great to know you can retire any day you feel like it.

FS
 
Novatwo - Yep, it applies...I was first hired under CSRS in October 1982...I have about 7.6 years under CSRS, then left the government for a couple years to work as a consultant, then came back in 1991. I had a choice of CSRS Offset, or FERS, and chose FERS since CSRS Offset also pays into SS but doesn't get the full TSP benefit. I currently have 27 years of "substantial earnings", so if I retired now the first $849 or whatever of my SS would be cut 15%...as would my wife's I believe since she'll end up getting half of my benefit. It' not a huge cut in our overall income stream, but just the idea of any cut really irks me so I might work as late as March 2019 to get that 30th year in...my financial goals should be met around mid-2017 though, so I might end up going sooner...heck, with today's jump in the I fund I just made about 20% of what I need to reach my TSP goal in one day if it holds...but I could lose that and a whole lot more tomorrow if "Brexit" wins LOL....fingers crossed.

By the way, following my tsp timing system precisely would have had me go 100% I fund yesterday. That would have worked well. I've now finished my huge spreadsheet for my system, and the manual that describes it...and am awaiting a business license from the county...next up is to actually start working on the websites (there will be two, one for the TSP and one for ETFs, which can also use the strategy with ETFs that mimic the TSP (SPY or VOO, VXF, EFA or IEFA, and AGG) and go live with it...my goal is by Labor day...that will be one of my retirement hobbies, and if it exceeds my expectations for income that would let me ignore the WEP thing and retire next year. The strategy has averaged about 22% over the last 12 years...is up 13% this year...has never had a negative year over those 12 years...and has beaten the C fund every year...I keep expecting it to fall on its face but it doesn't...my biggest challenge is just to start following it myself!
 
Novatwo - Yep, it applies...I was first hired under CSRS in October 1982...I have about 7.6 years under CSRS, then left the government for a couple years to work as a consultant, then came back in 1991. I had a choice of CSRS Offset, or FERS, and chose FERS since CSRS Offset also pays into SS but doesn't get the full TSP benefit. I currently have 27 years of "substantial earnings", so if I retired now the first $849 or whatever of my SS would be cut 15%...as would my wife's I believe since she'll end up getting half of my benefit. It' not a huge cut in our overall income stream, but just the idea of any cut really irks me so I might work as late as March 2019 to get that 30th year in...my financial goals should be met around mid-2017 though, so I might end up going sooner...heck, with today's jump in the I fund I just made about 20% of what I need to reach my TSP goal in one day if it holds...but I could lose that and a whole lot more tomorrow if "Brexit" wins LOL....fingers crossed.

By the way, following my tsp timing system precisely would have had me go 100% I fund yesterday. That would have worked well. I've now finished my huge spreadsheet for my system, and the manual that describes it...and am awaiting a business license from the county...next up is to actually start working on the websites (there will be two, one for the TSP and one for ETFs, which can also use the strategy with ETFs that mimic the TSP (SPY or VOO, VXF, EFA or IEFA, and AGG) and go live with it...my goal is by Labor day...that will be one of my retirement hobbies, and if it exceeds my expectations for income that would let me ignore the WEP thing and retire next year. The strategy has averaged about 22% over the last 12 years...is up 13% this year...has never had a negative year over those 12 years...and has beaten the C fund every year...I keep expecting it to fall on its face but it doesn't...my biggest challenge is just to start following it myself!



Tsunami, I didn't even think about broken service. I just checked my earnings record and see that my first 5 years do not qualify as substantial earnings. The govt seems to make everything complicated.

That was an awesome call from your system, when will we be able to learn about it and sign up?
 
Tsunami, I didn't even think about broken service. I just checked my earnings record and see that my first 5 years do not qualify as substantial earnings. The govt seems to make everything complicated.

That was an awesome call from your system, when will we be able to learn about it and sign up?

My goal was by Thanksgiving, but I'm gonna try to push myself to find time to do it sooner, maybe by Labor Day. I've already figured out the webhost, type of site (WordPress), and the WordPress theme...the merchant account, shopping cart, all that stuff...now it's a matter of finding time to put it all together...the darn day job gets in the way...and I have a 17-day road trip/vacation coming up...driving all the way up to Jasper, Alberta, seven national parks, looking forward to that! Another thing that will make it stand out is that it won't be a subscription service...just a one-time cost to buy it (including the IFTs to make for at least 5 years into the future, it's totally mechanical and doesn't care about news) and then on your own you decide if you want to use it, or even modify it to your own liking (such as by removing the lunar component that many will find hard to swallow)...I think I'll even post a discount code for those that discover it here in this forum. I can't promote it here though...don't think Tom nor the other premium services here would like that much, and I'll respect that. Maybe I'll just mention it one time once it's online. I'm having a really hard time training myself to follow it...I can't resist straying from the system using Elliott waves and other TA, and news...but that's been my failing for the last umpteen years and the whole reason behind developing it, so that I can completely ignore TA and news and just go on auto-pilot...and do a LOT better...since I've been kinda-sorta following it for the last few months I've vaulted from #996 in the tracker to #186...and if things hold today I'll jump above the F fund herd finally. Tomorrow should really shake things up one way or the other, but my system will keep me in until before the next jobs report on 7/8.
 
Just got home after flight delays from a business trip and....Youch! Brexit! Well, for the record I reached #89 today, 5.7%...and was only 5% from my retirement goal....and then "Brexit" slams the market. So much for the smart betters saying it wouldn't happen. Only bright spot for me is I bought quite a bit of NUGT and other gold hedges today and my trading and IRA counts will actually go up on this news.

Lots of pain for many tomorrow.....and the decision on whether to stay in or not won't be easy. Erik Hadik predicted/warned this would happen due to that ~5 month cycle from last August, to January, and now again in late June...it's hitting like clockwork...late November would be the next market dump if it repeats again. I wonder where the I fund will finish tomorrow....down 10%?
 
So, the UE rate bumps up to 4.9% for the June report, but the 12-month average dropped from 5.03% to 4.99%. So my system remains in bullish mode, although with the drop in the 12-month average slowing down I could see it giving a bear market signal as soon as September on the day the August report is released. All it would take is a move up in the UE rate to 5.1% for the August report. Hmm, and looking ahead in my system, by coincidence it will have me exiting the C fund on September 2nd, which happens to be the exact day the August UE report will be released. Hmm.

Will today's report be enough to finally get the U.S. index's to record highs? Maybe, I'm not betting on it though.
 
The red and blue cycles are combining for a knock-out punch to the bears...
Orderly Bull - Jaroslaw Jac - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com;
...and agreeing with those cycles, many momentum indicators are very overbought...
$SUPUDP - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

I can't see this current rally lasting beyond OpEx Friday (I'd like to see a tag of the top Keltner channel near 2180 by Friday $SPX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com), but the pullback might not amount to much. Dips are being bought ferociously.
 
Amazing time's we live in...

What

I wonder how much helicopter money we'll all get next year, and in what form? Tax rebates is my guess.
 
Amazing time's we live in...

What

I wonder how much helicopter money we'll all get next year, and in what form? Tax rebates is my guess.

no, not rebates. credits. refundable credits. rebates imply something paid in, credits are for everybody. yay! i'm gonna get new used car!
 
Armstrong is an interesting guy and I like reading his commentaries...and his predictions often come true. His 18,500 mark for the Dow has been hit finally...next up he's calling for 23,000 by 2018. That's about 25% higher. Works for me!
Martin Armstrong: Throw Out the Fundamentals

I'm a bit giddy this morning...I was watching Apple closely yesterday and for once my Elliott wave skills worked. I counted a completed wave pattern bottoming near the close, loaded up on August 5th calls...and 10 seconds after the open this morning sold them for a 250% gain, over $25K....I think daddy's getting a new car sooner than planned! :banana:

Also looks to me like things are set up to break out of this long sideways consolidation (a wave 4 triangle in Elliott wave terms) after the Fed announcement today...2200+ should be coming soon. I hope so anyway since my system has me staying in the market into next week.

Lastly...what's up with that darn I fund? EFA is down today even though overseas markets are solidly up today, many of them over 1%. Argh...glad I went 50% S fund on this move.
 
Thanks, I'm feeling a little like Birchtree today, ended up over $40K on the day since I also have a huge QQQ calls trade going...and I held onto those anticipating good news from Facebook after hours....he shoots, he scores! I actually reached my retirement goal for cash today, so now I just have to get there for my TSP and I'd be ready to go if it wasn't for that dang Windfall Elimination Provision cutting my SS by 15% permanently if I was to retire now. I won't eliminate that cut in my social security until early 2019. Argh. I'm still holding out hope that Congress will pass H.R. 711 and eliminate that issue, but vacations and campaigning are more important to them.
 
Thanks, I'm feeling a little like Birchtree today, ended up over $40K on the day since I also have a huge QQQ calls trade going...and I held onto those anticipating good news from Facebook after hours....he shoots, he scores! I actually reached my retirement goal for cash today, so now I just have to get there for my TSP and I'd be ready to go if it wasn't for that dang Windfall Elimination Provision cutting my SS by 15% permanently if I was to retire now. I won't eliminate that cut in my social security until early 2019. Argh. I'm still holding out hope that Congress will pass H.R. 711 and eliminate that issue, but vacations and campaigning are more important to them.

H.R. 711 was in committee, but was put on the back burner for the time being. I feel your pain though as I will be eligible for social security in another year and a half. I never could understand why we were required to pay the full amount during our careers and then be penalized when it comes time to collect.
 
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