Tsunami's Account Talk

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Tsunami said:
The Bollinger bands are very narrow, the Elliott waves are set up for a big move in either direction...but which way?

Here's one clue which way it could go...
$BPSPX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Things look a lot like early November on the charts, e.g., chart #2 on Jeffrey Young's page....
Jeffrey Young's Public Chart List - Jeffrey Young - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com
Click to expand...

Tsunami,

By looking at chart #2 from Jeffrey Young, I believe that I see a couple of times that depict a trend change trigger drop. Is that depicted already by looking at the very recent cross to the downside of the dark line over the green line? Has the drop been triggered already? Thank you.
 
Airlift,

On that chart I was mostly just looking at the lower panel. I don't even know what that indicator is since it's not labeled, but I've seen numerous charts recently that are similar and show a rollover from a very high level. Here's one, notice that the Money Flow Indicator (MFI) last peaked in October, then the S&P peak came about two weeks later. The same thing has happened this time and if history repeats the next significant low should come in mid- to late-June.
$SPX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
I'm looking for an initial wave 1 drop next week down to the 50dma on that chart, so 1980ish...the waves are set up perfectly for a sharp decline (the middle of wave 3 of that larger wave 1 drop) starting first thing Monday, so if that doesn't happen the bulls win yet again. I think gravity will finally take hold Monday though.

Looking at this, it immediately brings up an image of Wile E. Coyote hanging in mid-air after leaping off the face of a cliff...
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Still not near a bullish crossover in the monthly RSI or MACD, so I'm still in bearish mode until that happens, or until the S&P gets above the early November peak at 2116...
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

I like to listen to the Financialsense weekend podcasts, I've been doing that for over 10 years now. The Puplava's are very conservative in predicting market downturns but they're starting to lean that way now and expecting a recession in 2017. The market sniffs out recessions well in advance so a decline now makes sense.
FINANCIAL SENSE | Applying Common Sense to the Markets

Financial Sense Newshour | FINANCIAL SENSE The Saturday, Monday and Tuesday podcasts are free
 
Miscellaneous stuff…
If the market is down next week as I expect, it will be only the second time since 1982 that the April OpEx has been significantly down:
http://jeffhirsch.tumblr.com/post/142478793578/april-expiration-week-has-been-strong
Harry Dent’s April Fool’s Day commentary might have timed the top of wave 2 perfectly. Most of his calls are terrible, but I’m a believer in his overall demographics thesis being the primary reason for the stock market’s maliase in the first two decades of this century:
http://economyandmarkets.com/markets/stocks/think-the-market-will-reach-a-new-high-heres-why-we-dont/
Lucy, you have some splaining to do!... McClellen couldn’t come up with an explanation for why his prediction didn’t come true, so he’s throwing it out…but I like his charts prediction for a low in October 2016. If we just started wave 3 of C downon 4/1/16, then October or November fits for a bottom to wave 3, with wave 5 down then bottoming in the spring of 2017…rhyming with the Nov ‘08/March ’09 lows of the last bear market:
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/eurodollar_cot_throws_a_curveball/
Eduard Altman (aka “Gunner”) doesn’t mention it in this commentary, and I know nothing at all about Gann stuff, but I like the convergence of lines in his S&P 500 chart in April at 1595 for the ultimate bottom of this bear market:
http://www.gunner24.com/newsletter-archive/april-2016/03042016/
All of this fits pretty well with PUGs big picture count, but just sped up time-wise (see his April 8[SUP]th[/SUP] Twitter post with the two charts, including the 8[SUP]th[/SUP] year of the Presidential cycle which predicts a peak in early April then down down down into late-November):
https://twitter.com/PUGStockMarket
Here’s that 8[SUP]th[/SUP] year chart article again, I think this is the one to follow for this year, not the 4-year chart…a low near trading day #226 equates to just before Thanksgiving, and going back to 2008, 11/20/2008 was the major closing-price low…in fact that was THE low for some index’s including QQQ (the bottom was intraday on 11/21/08):
http://www.businessinsider.com/presidential-cycle-stock-market-performance-2016-1
Peter Eliades’ latest, interesting cycle’s discussion and he’s still bearish, and I guess I need to put a major stock market tops in 2035-36 and 2041-42 and 2048 on my calendar: http://consensus-inc.com/002001i/knay1537/fin-com/0329fc-pesc.htm
A new high in the NYSE A-D line could really turn things bullish. So far it hasn’t quite gotten there though. The late March peak, coinciding with Eliades’ article, fell just 13 points shy of the peaka year ago. I plan to keep an eye on this one…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p93809326926
OK, I can’t stall any longer, time for yard work.
 
So the IMF releases a statement at the crack of dawn that they've decided that negative interest rates are the greatest thing since sliced bread (really?, look at Japan, clearly keeping rates low for a long time doesn't work in fighting the demographic tsunami of aging populations) and the futures turned on a dime and reversed from red to green...so we got a short covering rally to start the week.

But unless 2116 is broken to the upside I'm still bearish. I'm in the minority, but that makes me feel even better about it. Earning's reports start rolling in this week. If the S&P shoots above the recent peak at 2075 and then the November peak of 2116, I'll cry uncle. We'll see. So far all of these sharp rallies are being sold in a game of musical chairs.
 
Uncle! I've seen nothing but 3-wave moves down, the bears can't get anything impulsive going, so I'm back in...thought it might only be for a few days...and it's an I fund month so 100% I fund, eek that's scary.
 
Hi TS. I've decided to wait until to see if SPX busts through 2060. It could do that this afternoon or not. If it does, I'll go in tomorrow hoping for OPEX. For today, I think I need to step away from this. The market makes absolutely no sense. What is it we don't know or aren't seeing?

FS
 
Well, there it is, broke above 2060 and the downtrend line:
Above the Green Line - Apr 12, 2016 Buy high, and Sell Higher: Momentum Investing - Joanne Klein - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com;

I'm just hoping to squeeze out between 1 and 2% (and get back to green, after making the ultimate error and bailing out at the very bottom in February then missing this entire rally)...perhaps the peak comes on about 4/26 or 4/27 per the "T" shown by Jeffrey Young, who was one of the late Terry Laundry's best protégé's on T-Theory:
Jeffrey Young's Public Chart List - Jeffrey Young - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com

EFA is about 2.4% below the 200dma, so I'll make that my goal/hope and then likely bail back out to the lily pad.

Sell in May and go away? It's shaping up that way.
 
Interesting that the seasonal strength in bonds starts on 4/26 per this commentary, the exact same date that the current "T" ends per my post yesterday:
Almanac Trader

I'm not convinced this rally will last that long though, but it looks like the momentum should carry through at least this Friday.

Also noticed that the I fund has just taken over as the leader of the pack for April (including today's gains in EFA so far of 1.4%), right on cue, since the I fund has been the strongest fund in April and July for many years now (on average, not always).

Glad to have my head above water and be in the green again, but am a nervous holder.
 
Hi TS: Just decided to follow you in the I Fund through Friday but a bit lighter (65%). Hope the rally continues through then.. Fingers crossed.

FS
 
FogSailing said:
Hi TS: Just decided to follow you in the I Fund through Friday but a bit lighter (65%). Hope the rally continues through then.. Fingers crossed.

FS
Click to expand...

Yesterday I was a nervous holder, today I'm a very nervous holder since the technicals are getting pretty overbought (e.g., the S&P closing over the Bollinger Band yesterday was dangerous, and at the moment it's still riding above that band, something never lasts long...plus there's divergence in the RSI and MACD, a warning for sure) and I see so many capitulating buying-in now, like I did.

But, I've decided to make the gap fill at 59.52 from the close on 12/30/15 on EFA my target, another 1.6% higher... it won't get there today so I'm staying in. Plus in the Elliott waves I see the need for another small wave 4 then final wave 5 thrust up to near 2100, to the down trend line from the peaks last May and November.

This is interesting since the next Fed meeting announcement is on 4/27. So that's a bit of key news that aligns with that 4/26 date for the end of the T and also the start of seasonal bond strength. Is the Fed going to surprise and jack up rates 0.25% on 4/27 due to overconfidence from the levitating stock markets? Hmm.

The Fed Just Held An Emergency Meeting To Discuss Capital Markets | Zero Hedge
 
I don't know TS. I'm staying in through tomorrow, then jumping out for the rest of the month. If it goes up, I make a little. If it goes down I lose for the month. I got in way too late and hate chasing but the trend has been up and I'm hoping that trend stays alive through tomorrow closing. Best of luck to you TS. You and I both started the year off and got stung...but not as bad as JTH and he's done a good job of climbing out of the hole.

FS
 
Really good stuff from "Northy", he ought to charge for this stuff it's so good, but I'm glad he doesn't.

https://northmantrader.com/2016/04/12/feeding-the-monster/

Reading through it is terrifying, but I can see where his suggestion at the end that a "proper blow-off top" is quite possible. Monday's reaction to the oil news could be the key and the waves are saying it will be a positive (but short-lived) reaction. I see today as the end of wave 4 I was expecting, so all that's needed for the bearish view is a final wave 5 pop up...I just hope it's not really weak and finishes today or early Monday since I'm staying in....darn that noon IFT deadline!...but if the market really explodes higher Monday, and then the monster is fed again by the Fed on Wednesday, I could see a euphoric May rally all the way up to 2200ish major top.

I'm taking it one day at a time though, and the plan for today is to stay in for Monday before heading back to the F fund...hmm, I see old friend Bullet is moving there today....and I can't believe I shot up over 440 slots in the tracker over just the last two days. Wow, go I fund!
 
Tsunami said:
Really good stuff from "Northy", he ought to charge for this stuff it's so good, but I'm glad he doesn't.

https://northmantrader.com/2016/04/12/feeding-the-monster/

Reading through it is terrifying, but I can see where his suggestion at the end that a "proper blow-off top" is quite possible. Monday's reaction to the oil news could be the key and the waves are saying it will be a positive (but short-lived) reaction. I see today as the end of wave 4 I was expecting, so all that's needed for the bearish view is a final wave 5 pop up...I just hope it's not really weak and finishes today or early Monday since I'm staying in....darn that noon IFT deadline!...but if the market really explodes higher Monday, and then the monster is fed again by the Fed on Wednesday, I could see a euphoric May rally all the way up to 2200ish major top.

I'm taking it one day at a time though, and the plan for today is to stay in for Monday before heading back to the F fund...hmm, I see old friend Bullet is moving there today....and I can't believe I shot up over 440 slots in the tracker over just the last two days. Wow, go I fund!
Click to expand...

I read that article too, it gives one pause. The market action makes no sense considering the fundamentals and all the caries in the coal mine lying on their sides or feet up. I'm liking your scenario for next week. Give me that euphoric rally and a blow-off top and I'll take the summer off! :D
 
FogSailing said:
Hi TS. I bailed. I hope it plays out like you've suggested. Best of Luck!

BTW: Great article!

FS
Click to expand...

Glad you locked in a small gain FS, though you never know with the unpredictable way they calculate the I fund closing price....So far the waves are playing out perfectly, a clear A-B-C corrective wave 4 from yesterday's peak, bottoming today at 2076.31... for a top next week, I'm looking for between 2093 to 2103. EFA has the same pattern and it looks like wave 4 ended at the close. It looks like I'll be exiting Monday and crossing my fingers that it closes green.

Have a great weekend.
 
Well, it’s do or die time for the bears. Today certainly seems like a good candidate for a top, and there’s just no room left to spare, so it’s now or never bears.

QQQ and EFA filled their gaps from late December today….and cycles would suggest a peak today:
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/18845253/Screen%20Shot%202016-04-19%20at%2011.00.08%20AM.png

But will the Fear Of Missing Out drive the market to record highs and beyond? We’ll know very soon,the futures are down a bit, but not enough to scare the bulls.

Meanwhile, I can’t help torturing myself. My seasonal timing system went into bear mode way back last July 22[SUP]nd[/SUP]…but if I’d ignored that signal and followed the regular system it would have yielded spectacular results last year, and so far this year as well, and as of today, with just two IFTs so far this year, it’s sitting with a gain of +17.42%. That would be atop the totem pole in the tracker. And that’s no fluke, since the same system would have finished #1 in the tracker in 2009 (with 39.43%), 2010 (37.62%), and 2015 (29.84%). I keep kicking myself every year for not following my own system (thinking it can’t possibly continueto do so well) and this year is no different.

If 2135 is exceeded, I think I’m going to dispense with the “bull/bear”signal in my system and just follow the basic strategy for eternity. The signals for market tops and bottoms worked like a charm in the last two bear markets, but it’s really pushing the limit this time!
 
take it to the limit? one more time?

everybody knows this will end badly, and hard. but nobody knows when.

that is the trick to this game, this is how steel is made.

 
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