Tsunami's Account Talk

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Tsunami said:
There's a reason DeMark's subscription fees are so expensive, so I pay attention to any predictions he makes.

With S&P now sitting at about 1925, the final hour will be important. If it closes below the close 4 days ago (1926.82 last Wednesday), then he says "the decline is going to be sharp".

DeMark Sees Risk of S&P 500 Top Should Stocks Fade This Week - Bloomberg Business
Click to expand...

Tsunami,

Thanks for this article. I liked the nature and the predictive attempt of DeMark's article. If this is a given, and the SPX has 3 more trading days to go until it reaches "trend exhaustion", then we should rally until next Friday. Is this correct?
 
airlift said:
Tsunami,

Thanks for this article. I liked the nature and the predictive attempt of DeMark's article. If this is a given, and the SPX has 3 more trading days to go until it reaches "trend exhaustion", then we should rally until next Friday. Is this correct?
Click to expand...

That's not how I read it. It closed below 1926.82 (the close 4 days ago), so I think the trend can reverse straight down now...but I'm no DeMark expert...and like any other guru, he's wrong a lot. Breaking below 1880 or so with some gusto would be a strong sign we're headed straight down to the 1700s, and beyond that eventually.

And whaddaya know, now we're in a position per that chart to head straight down to the early April low that Tom McClellan predicted many months ago.
His chart has worked pretty darn well...
Eurodollar COT Says Ugly Drop Is Still Ahead of Us - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial
So will we see a bottom near April 5th? Time will tell.
 
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TS...that is right on. There is a lot of bullishness and the dip buyers are waiting for 1880-1900. This is a quote from John Hussman's article that caught my attention:

Meanwhile, remember that investors, in aggregate, cannot exit the stock market, or any other market for that matter. Every security that is issued, including base money created by the Federal Reserve, must be held by some investor, at every point in time, in precisely the form it was issued, until that security is retired. The only question is how eager buyers are, relative to sellers. Prices don’t advance because money goes “into” stocks. Every dollar that a stock buyer brings into the market goes right back out in the hands of a seller. No, prices advance because buyers are more eager than sellers. Prices decline because sellers are more eager than buyers.

My concern is that support for an increasingly risk-averse market now rests on the fragile resolve of dip-buying speculators primed to cut-and-run at exactly the same nearby support level, beyond which stands a rather shallow pool of powder-dry, value-conscious potential buyers who remain unwilling to commit that powder anywhere near current levels, in a risk-averse market where further central bank intervention is likely to be futile.
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I'm not really sure which way this goes...but the bullishness out there is at an elevated level and a lot of people are expecting a wave up to 2000-2070. It would not surprise me to see that we are in fact on the ledge and no one realizes it.

FS
 
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Things are getting interesting here. The bulls need to see this short-covering rally blast through 1920 and beyond, otherwise the next drop will be even worse.

It should be quite the bull/bear battle for the next day or two.

Bull Bear Fight.jpg
 
Bulls won that fight easily. That was a Holly Holm beat down of Rhonda Rousey. Next stop 2000? Maybe higher? Hard to say but the bulls have the reigns.

Tom DeMark will be on CNBC shortly. I'm curious to see if he's wiped the egg off his face yet. :laugh:

Update - DeMark says the S&P "price flip" yesterday was isolated to the S&P only, so didn't matter...now he thinks the market will peak Friday above the recent highs, then it breaks down next week.
 
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Hi TS. No idea how this plays out after the pullback. I'm just doing other things till we hit somewhere between 1810-1750. Then I'm come out of my "Bear Cave" and look around for any bulls..:D:D:D

I've decided not to post any market stuff for a while and just watch what happens.

I saw you moved to F. I was going to but remain concerned of the potential downside to bonds once equities start to fall. I know there should be a major flight to bonds once equities start to pullback. I assume that is why you have moved to F. I was watching volume yesterday and it seems to me the smart money is moving out but to where...maybe bonds but I didn't see any major upswing in bonds the last few days so perhaps that is what happened earlier in Feb.

FS

FS
 
FS,
I'm trying to post less as well...maybe I'll get myself off that "top posters" list LOL. Yep, went to the F fund. Timing was tough since I've been on travel so much but yesterday morning before the market opened looked good enough to me, and now I'm back into my system (which says just to stay in the F fund until the monthly charts show the bear market is over, and that won't happen for many months).

So I'm now positioned for a wave 1 of 3 down, which I'm guessing will bottom in early April. I think this chart is warning of what could be ahead.
https://twitter.com/Mella_TA/status/705512257472569348/photo/1

The last time the NYMO closed above 100 was back in early January 2009 (see this chart: https://northmantrader.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/nymow.png), and what followed was a ~28% drop to the bottom in March 2009. History could rhyme with that a few months from now. The rising wedge in oil prices that Tom posted this morning is also ready to break down, which should help pull stocks down. We'll see. Maybe the market will hold up for a couple more days, any more than that and I'll have to re-evaluate.
 
Tsunami said:
FS,
I'm trying to post less as well...maybe I'll get myself off that "top posters" list LOL. Yep, went to the F fund. Timing was tough since I've been on travel so much but yesterday morning before the market opened looked good enough to me, and now I'm back into my system (which says just to stay in the F fund until the monthly charts show the bear market is over, and that won't happen for many months).

So I'm now positioned for a wave 1 of 3 down, which I'm guessing will bottom in early April. I think this chart is warning of what could be ahead.
https://twitter.com/Mella_TA/status/705512257472569348/photo/1

The last time the NYMO closed above 100 was back in early January 2009 (see this chart: https://northmantrader.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/nymow.png), and what followed was a ~28% drop to the bottom in March 2009. History could rhyme with that a few months from now. The rising wedge in oil prices that Tom posted this morning is also ready to break down, which should help pull stocks down. We'll see. Maybe the market will hold up for a couple more days, any more than that and I'll have to re-evaluate.
Click to expand...

I read an article that oil production will continue at current rates, but that consumption is down and storage facilities are filling up. When they are full, price will be impacted in a big way.
 
Only time will tell, but today's top looked perfect for the wave 2 top. This statistical backtest agrees and the next few weeks should be sharply lower...heading down to the low Tom McClellan predicted long ago for early April.

Backtest Your Strategies: S&P 500 vs % of S&P 500 Stocks Above 20-Day Moving Average | Stock Market Indicators

The close of 1999.99 could be the last kiss of 2000 for several years if the multitude of gurus I read are right....Peter Eliades for example...
Consensus Financial Commentary

He's been doing this for 40 years, so I pay attention: TSAA-SF - "2015 - It's About Time" with Peter Eliades
 
Full moon comes in on 23 March...Are we getting ready for a trend reversal? Hmm, last 3 cycles have all been positive...
 
ravensfan said:
Full moon comes in on 23 March...Are we getting ready for a trend reversal? Hmm, last 3 cycles have all been positive...
Click to expand...

Sure looks that way. I count that we just completed a clear 5 waves down from yesterday's peak. Now we should be starting a wave 2 bounce. I also see some pretty head and shoulders patterns developing. I've drawn one here using my fancy schmanzy artistic snippet software showing the lows of the last two days for QQQ and where it should bounce to (107.85ish) for the right shoulder. If that's what happens, then tomorrow should bring a crummy Thursday (wave 3 down) before Good Friday...

QQQ H&S.jpg
 
Wow that was a weak wave 2...it was a perfect Fibonacci 38.2% retracement for QQQ...looks like the first minor wave 3 down is underway.
I went short with UVXY (Roth IRA) and QQQ April puts (trading account) right at that afternoon peak. Fingers crossed for a gap down tomorrow (which would be the middle of this wave 3 down in this initial decline).

It will be interesting to see how fast the lemmings turn from greed to panic...or if I'm way off base, again. :worried:
 
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