Tsunami's Account Talk

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Well, I did it...100% C fund. :sick: Just a hope and a prayer that we get a capitulation low Tuesday morning. I don't think the bear market will be over in one fell swoop. It's much like the 2000-03 bear market with a series of panics, and this is the second one, that I hope ends shortly. "Hope" isn't a good thing with investing though.
 
Tsunami said:
Well, I did it...100% C fund. :sick: Just a hope and a prayer that we get a capitulation low Tuesday morning. I don't think the bear market will be over in one fell swoop. It's much like the 2000-03 bear market with a series of panics, and this is the second one, that I hope ends shortly. "Hope" isn't a good thing with investing though.
Click to expand...

70C/20S/10I myself. :laugh::nuts:
 
jpcavin said:
70C/20S/10I myself. :laugh::nuts:
Click to expand...

Well, Armstrong's bear signal did not trigger, lets hope for at least a week-long rally as he suggests....
The Dow and 15940 | Armstrong Economics

I see that the herd of F-funders is now up over 1% this year...silly me, I broke away from the herd today and am now being chased by a cougar. :eek:
Per today's article by McClellan, the F fund should keep doing well until Groundhog Day...
Groundhog Day in T-Bonds - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial

Pundits are falling over each other trying to win the prediction for the lowest oil price. How about $8?!!
Oil Hit $32 As We Predicted... But This Isn't the End!

Is it Alevin that posts these charts?...this one looks promising...
S&P 500 vs S&P 500 Relative to its 5-Day Moving Average (S&P 500 R5) | Stock Market Indicators
QQQ has broken down to the second level as well...
Nasdaq 100 vs Nasdaq 100 Relative to its 5-Day Moving Average (Nasdaq 100 R5) | Stock Market Indicators

Long term, the 7-year low is behind schedule unless it keeps on crashing into April/May...
http://static.safehaven.com/authors/tradermc/34311_b_large.png

Hmm, long term channel for small caps is breaking down...
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$R...1305925&a=186441034&r=1438393002019&cmd=print

That's it for this weekend...go Seahawks!
 
I'll likely regret it but I think the market is heading lower, maybe 1820, so I'm right back out today to the lily pad. With some luck, if today finishes with solid gains (based on the gains that managed to hold in Europe, I'm hoping U.S. markets finish strong today as well), I could be #2 in the tracker (hmm, and with the S fund so weak today possibly even #1!) and I plan to frame that for posterity LOL.
 
Tsunami said:
I'll likely regret it but I think the market is heading lower, maybe 1820, so I'm right back out today to the lily pad. With some luck, if today finishes with solid gains (based on the gains that managed to hold in Europe, I'm hoping U.S. markets finish strong today as well), I could be #2 in the tracker (hmm, and with the S fund so weak today possibly even #1!) and I plan to frame that for posterity LOL.
Click to expand...

Ts,
I think that is a smart move on your part. Let's hope markets are good to you today and you get that number one ranking. We have been watching this trend of markets opening high and closing at or near session lows for most of the month now. It is extremely difficult to time a profit in that scenario, so hope it all works out for you.

As for the market moving lower, I went back and looked at one of my excel spread sheets where I track each days closing price and in looking at the S&P500, going back to the beginning of October, that months high for the month was higher than the following months high for the month. It happened in November, December and now in January. That tells me the market has been in a downtrend since that nice bounce we got in October.

With that said, I am of the opinion that it is best minimize risk until we see a bottom. I don't expect that to happen until oil prices stabilize.:D
 
The rally is being sold as I type. Too bad, we started out so promising this morning.

Oil takes another hit and drags us backwards. 1 step forward, 3 steps back once again.

Frank
 
Yep, with only 10 minutes to go the C fund was up about 0.4%, so I was right on the cusp of that #1 ranking....then it fell apart. Oh well, at least I didn't lose a fortune, and I'm glad I didn't choose the S fund (ouch!).

I do think the market is near that significant low I was searching for though...later this week perhaps.
 
That's my guess this morning as well TS (only now I'm seeing 1750). I'm actually surprised. Didn't think I'd see it go under 1820. It hasn't yet but there is a lot of technical damage occurring and it sure looks like we will. Not sure of the timeframe but it won't take long for the bad news to surface. I wonder what price oil will be at once all the market forces have played their hand.

I wouldn't be surprised to see US announce a program to maintain oil and shale infrastructure during this shake out period so we minimize the downside impacts to the industry.

FS
 
Two thoughts on the day. One of these I read earlier from a trader I like:

As the saying goes, “the market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent.”

The VIX is staying calm....it hasn't spiked yet. Even though RSI is looking better I'm concerned that we head lower. Next support level is 1792. But given todays action, trying to call a bottom doesn't feel right yet.

FS
 
So far, Peter Eliades has been right...

"There are, of course, no guarantees that the May 21 high of last year will not be surpassed this year, but our decades of technical and cycle work continue to tell us there is a very good chance that the closing high seen on that day may not be surpassed for years to come."

Consensus Financial Commentary

Here's a chart of the important 3-year average he writes about.... "We should make it clear, however, that even if the market holds temporarily around these price levels, we believe it will only be for the short to intermediate term. As far as we are concerned, the year 2016 has all the makings of an ugly market year."

$SPX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
 
Looks like Jack nailed the call today....peaked out at 1890 just as predicted, then down it goes to another low...
Channels and Patterns
...or, maybe today's top was already wave A up, now in B down, with C up coming next. No way to know, as usual, but fun to guess.

Haven't heard any talk about next week's Fed meeting. That could start making the market nervous soon.
 
For DeMark fans, sounds like 1850 is an important line in the sand for a weekly close this Friday...

S&P 500 DeMark Counts And Price Levels Loom Large | See It Market

I think closing below 1850 would also tilt the odds that this is a wave 5 down (likely bottoming early next week, maybe around 1775ish, but too many gurus are predicting that now, making it more unlikely) rather than a wave B down, with wave C up ready to blast off to the upper 1900s any time now. Even more gurus are predicting that though...
 
That's what I'm reading as well TS. Here are two comments made by the traders that caught my attention this morning:

1st Comment:
ST bottom should be in today. Around 1866ish SPX.
In around 4 trading days, market should rocket 90 points to about 1957. then remain around that level for 4 weeks.
SPX touching 1854 today, all gets invalidated.

2nd Comment:
The canary in the coal mine is dying, who’s paying attention? The largest bank in Europe and the largest derivatives book in the world –
sweet. Everyone should have DB & CS on their screens, like in 2008 when we were all watching GS, LEH & MER.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/PC829iGm/

Don’t forget about this train wreck either, canary #2. Below the 2009 lows, approaching the 2011 lows and 2002 lows.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Zd0svNou/

My comment: What's going on with the banks? I'm reading that there is a performance problem from several different website bloggers. But no one is identifying a reason. My guesses are energy loan defaults and hedge fund defaults? Wish I understood the finance world better.

FS
 
Great post FS, and those charts are indeed ominous.

My 2 cents for today....the overnight e-mini futures hit about 1851. Normally overnight lows are revisited during the day session, so I expect the opening rally attempt to be sold yet again and at some point today that overnight low will be hit, which corresponds to around 1859 in the $SPX cash, almost a 1% drop. One percent per day until Monday would get the S&P down to that 1775 area...and if it matters after two years, there is that tiny gap to be filled at 1773 from Feb 6th 2014 which Tom point out.
 
I haven't posted some good doom and gloom in a while, here's a good one...."it's not too late to panic...this is nothing like 2008...it's going to be much worse"...

Bert Dohmen Is Uber-Bearish and Here's Why | FS Staff | FINANCIAL SENSE

I've tried twice this year to time a rally and failed. I've only been in the market for four days this year and am down 2%. Time to sit back and be more patient for a major low.

Oh, and yesterday ended a lunar green phase period. During that period the F fund was way up while the stock funds were waaaaay down. I wonder what this lunar red period starting today will bring. One of my gurus is predicting the Shanghai index will drop to 2000 by the end of Feb, a 27% drop. I'm OK just watching for a while.
 
Tsunami said:
Oh, and yesterday ended a lunar green phase period. During that period the F fund was way up while the stock funds were waaaaay down. I wonder what this lunar red period starting today will bring. One of my gurus is predicting the Shanghai index will drop to 2000 by the end of Feb, a 27% drop. I'm OK just watching for a while.
Click to expand...

I've got the C Fund finishing minus 2.65% and the S Fund minus 5.28% for this lunar green period. yuck! I was hoping the ship had righted itself as our last lunar red period was negative as it should be, but alas the last 3 periods (2 green and 1 red) have all been negative. My guess is this new lunar red period will be negative as well, but who knows anymore.
 
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