Tsunami's Account Talk

OK, drum roll....here are the final 2015 results for the various systems I've developed over the last few years and am now tracking. I've probably put a thousand hours into this by now. The summary table below includes both the 2015 results, and the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of each system for the last 12 years. The bull/bear systems are identical to the Hybrid systems except for my attempt to use simple TA (RSI and MACD on a monthly chart) to time bull/bear markets. When it goes under bear system rules that system just stays in the G fund, and for as much as the first two years of a bull market signal it just stays in the S fund...so those two systems lagged this year since they went into bear mode (stay in the G fund until the bear market is over) back in mid-July when my bear rules triggered (what remains to be proven is if we're really in a bear market right now, so far the market refuses to roll over). I've also updated my spreadsheet (a tedious process!) to put in all the trade dates for each system through 2016, and eventually plan to do that at least 30 years into the future so my beautiful wife could continue to make the IFTs for decades into the future and become a multi-millionaire without me. My plan is to stick with the bull/bear system using the G fund going forward in 2016 and in future bear markets in the 2020s...all the systems did better with the F fund over the last 12 years, but I think that tide is turning (at least as long as the Fed insists on raising rates, I'll switch to the bull/bear F fund system if the economy/markets forces them to stop)....so without further ado....

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Can you point me in the right direction for unlocking the secrets of the Basic Seasonal Strategies?
 

Can you point me in the right direction for unlocking the secrets of the Basic Seasonal Strategies?

Sure, the basic system is just that, very basic. It looks like this, with all the trades placed on the last day of the month...

Jan/Feb - S fund
Mar/Apr/May - C fund (or use the I fund in April since the I fund has been stronger than C or S during that month for many years)
June - G or F fund
July - I fund (or C)
Aug/Sept - G or F
Oct/Nov - C
Dec - S

For the "enhanced" system, rather than blindly making the moves on the last day of the month I used seasonality charts/websites to adjust the dates....e.g., per the equityclock.com main page I move from C to S on 11/23, and then S back to C on March 4th. Just that tiny move, and several others, make a big improvement. The "hybrid" system then gets quite weird to me since it incorporates the lunar phases during the summer months, but it seems to work pretty consistently...then my bull/bear system improves even further by just avoiding stocks altogether during bear markets...which is the holy grail and pretty much impossible to do, but I'm trying. It's still a work in progress and is just my own system but that sums it up. Anybody could do it with a spreadsheet and lots and lots of time playing with the possibilities.
 
Mr T: Thx for explaining to OBG's question more about your TSP IFT Strategies.
FYI: Just looking at charts this weekend I was thinking S&P situations looked similar to late parts of last Jan & March; if so, thought we might expect a short-term bottom in 1st 3-to-6 trade-days of 2016 followed by 2%-to-3% gains over anywhere from 1-to-3 weeks, followed by another drop. Today's news and morning cliff-fall (China and Iran-Saudi issues) was putting a blanket on that comparison; yet markets closed off the lows, so maybe the scenario is still in play... will watch closely this week.

BTW, How bout them HAWKS! Must have been a very enjoyable game assuming you made it there. Your thought it might be a slaughter was correct, just to the upside rather than down (like predictions about the markets sometimes). I too was wary and so glad they seem to be ramping-up for the playoffs, as long as they don't overlook the Vikings and assume next week's game will go like their earlier pounding of that team this season.
Finally, sorry you couldn't be at the Sun Bowl; your mention of Desert Snows in NM reminded me of my young years growing up in Albuquerque - always thought the snow in NM & AZ deserts was so peaceful/beautiful; then I saw all those blizzard pix per your link & that was altogether more hazardous and messy. Thx too for sharing the beautiful HI and COLO pix; again these brought back fond memories of such sights and experiences.
 
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FAAM,

One guru I respect is predicting an initial low on ~11th, so that fits your scenario. Overall though he's predicting a very bad few months with a bottom in the spring, like many other gurus. Here's another gloomy prediction:
NL 01/03/16

And another....
Consensus Financial Commentary

Barring an immediate sharp rally to new highs starting at the opening bell tomorrow I'm now firmly in the gloomy camp myself.

Hawks - Just got back from Phoenix this afternoon. Yes it was a great game (for Seattle fans) and what a surprise. AZ fans were in disbelief, but they were all great people and I observed no mistreatment of the 1000's of Seahawk fans there...in fact in my section and the adjacent one (we were on the 47-yard line, down low in row 19, right behind the Hawk bench, great seats!) Seahawk fans seemed to outnumber Cardinal fans nearly 2 to 1. The Seahawk players showed their appreciation of that throughout the game by turning to us and acknowledging us and cheering us on as we cheered them on. I hope they can keep up that level of play next week and that Lynch plays at least a few downs and gets back into beast mode...the other RBs have been doing a great job filling in though. P.S., just starting watching my DVR recording of the game and right in the opening intro when Aikman and Joe Buck were yacking I can see very fuzzy images of my wife and me on the other side of the field right in between them!

Looks like more snow in NM tonight (maybe several inches) and I might be telecommuting tomorrow....heck, I'm enjoying all my vacations and time off so much lately I might try to find a way to retire much sooner than 2019...I'm eligible this coming June.
 
Well TS unless there is a huge reversal this afternoon, it looks like the DOW low of 17128.55 set on 18 Dec will get breached today. Currently I'm looking at 16944.48.

Wow just 3 days into the new trading year. I think the fetal matter is about to hit the oscillating device. ;swear
 
It's not quite all over yet for the bulls, and those that jumped in today may hit pay dirt and bury me with it in my bear den.....but for now I'll just sit back and watch while I nibble on one of my gold sprinkled donuts.

Anyone with Dish? (I recently got fed up waiting for DirecTV to come to an agreement with the Pac-12 Network and switched to Dish)...the latest Hopper looks like a dream for my wife. I think she can use all 16 tuners....
The Hopper 3 Is the Most Ludicrously Powerful Cable Box Ever | WIRED
 
Well TS unless there is a huge reversal this afternoon, it looks like the DOW low of 17128.55 set on 18 Dec will get breached today. Currently I'm looking at 16944.48.

Wow just 3 days into the new trading year. I think the fetal matter is about to hit the oscillating device. ;swear

I believe it's fecal matter not fetal. But either way it still sucks.
 
This is how the stock market works:

“Once upon a time in a village, a man appeared and announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for $10 each. The villagers, seeing that there were many monkeys around, went out to the forest and started catching them. The man bought thousands at $10, and as supply started to diminish, the villagers stopped their effort. He further announced that he would now buy at $20. This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started catching monkeys again. Soon the supply diminished even further, and people started going back to their farms. The offer increased to $25 each, and the supply of monkeys became so little that it was an effort to even see a monkey, let alone catch it!

The man now announced that he would buy monkeys at $50! However, since he had to go to the city on some business, his assistant would now buy on behalf of him. In the absence of the man, the assistant told the villagers, ‘Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that the man has collected. I will sell them to you at $35 and when the man returns from the city, you can sell them to him for $50 each.’ The villagers rounded up with all their savings and bought all the monkeys. Then they never saw the man nor his assistant, only monkeys everywhere!

Now you have a better understanding of how the stock market works.”

. . . Author unknown

Raymond James Financial | Investment Strategy by Jeffrey Saut

No worries, 3 out of the 4 FANG stocks were up today...NFLX soaring...just keep paying more for those dwindling monkeys.
 
Tsunami,

After todays action, I have the C fund at -3.16% and the S Fund at -3.87% for the current Lunar Green Period. Seems the inverted trend continues. Of course you know that the moment we use this information in our trading strategies it will change...

Best of luck to you!
 
Tsunami,

After todays action, I have the C fund at -3.16% and the S Fund at -3.87% for the current Lunar Green Period. Seems the inverted trend continues. Of course you know that the moment we use this information in our trading strategies it will change...

Best of luck to you!

That's why the next evolution of my trading strategy was to incorporate bull and bear market signals to help me avoid the bulk of bear markets, and capture the first year of bull markets by just staying in S. Basically I'm just going with a long-term monthly SPX chart and looking at the RSI and MACD, and last July this chart would have told me to escape to the G or F fund.

Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

I don't trust F, but it's doing well again and trying to send a signal to the Fed, so I just jumped into F and will stay there until the bottom of this wave 1 down late this month or in early Feb.
 
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