Tsunami's Account Talk

Thanks FS - Yes, WSU brought the Pullman weather with them and held on just barely for the win. Not pretty, but we'll take it. The returning players (including WR Gabe Marks, 104 receptions this year and he announced he will not go pro and will instead return next year) are already talking Rose Bowl for next year, unfinished business they're saying. I'm glad I made the right call to not go down to El Paso, and I'm looking forward to the upcoming New Year's weekend in Phoenix to visit family and watch my Seahawks get slaughtered by Arizona, but at least we'll be out of this sub-freezing weather we're getting all this week over here. I shoveled snow yesterday for only the 2nd time in my life LOL.

The markets are not looking good today, obviously, but this could just be a wave 2 pullback, correcting last week's big gain. I think the first week of next year will determine right away whether 2016 will good or bad for bulls. A drop back below 1993 next week would likely be the death blow for the bulls. Meanwhile I'm wrapping up my 3rd worst TSP year ever since 1991. Ugh. I really need to start using one of my trading strategies!!! Any one of them would have been better than my lousy returns. I've been working on a huge spreadsheet the last few days/weeks comparing fourteen different strategies...over 3000 rows of data...(thank goodness you can just download share prices since 2003 from tsp.gov) and the winning strategy returned an amazing ~20% compound annual growth rate over the last 12 years, wow. I'll call it my Bull/Bear Hybrid Enhanced Lunatic System... LOL...it puts everything together, including a very simple method of deciding if the market is in a bull or bear market (which worked for the last two bear markets, but will it work again?, who knows)... it's currently under "bear market rules", meaning just stay in the G (or F, which has beaten the G fund overall for the last 12 years) fund until the monthly MACD and RSI charts give bull market buy signals....if the S&P breaks 2135 next month I'll have to throw that one out the window though....and maybe incorporate a "rabbit out of the hat" indicator. :cheesy:
 
I'm hoping for the bounce at 2040 SPX. We haven't had our rally yet!!!! 3000 rows of data TS? Cripes, I have a hard time finding my car keys...:D:D:D

I hear you on 1993. I've been there for a while now. Anyways, with respect to the market, I've learned "what will be will be"...

All the best in 2016!

FS
 
Well yesterday was the last day of the Lunar Red Period. C Fund gained 2.29% and the S Fund gained 2.15%.

It seems the trend of being positive during the red periods and negative during the green periods continues.
 
Well yesterday was the last day of the Lunar Red Period. C Fund gained 2.29% and the S Fund gained 2.15%.

It seems the trend of being positive during the red periods and negative during the green periods continues.

Is this where the pattern changes?
 
Is this where the pattern changes?

This trend actually started with the red period that began 10/16/15 and has remained intact ever since. With that said, if the trend is to continue the current green period we just entered yesterday should be negative as market direction reverses on the full and new moon cycles. Eventually, the trend will correct itself, but until then why not take advantage. I must say, being reversed for two and a half months is a pretty impressive trend. :D
 
Oil should take us down today WS. My guess is between 2044-2068. Then I think we rally to 2085. I'm not holding out for higher than 2100 any longer. Once we get headed to 2085 I will exit until I see an entry point in 2016.

Best to you and all my TSP friends in in 2016!

FS
 
Oil should take us down today WS. My guess is between 2044-2068. Then I think we rally to 2085. I'm not holding out for higher than 2100 any longer. Once we get headed to 2085 I will exit until I see an entry point in 2016.
Is that the year 2016 or the S&P500 at 2016. :laugh:

Sorry, I couldn't resist. :D
 
Looks like the final drama for 2015 will be whether "they" can keep the S&P green for 2015. It closed at 2058.90 last year...currently sitting only about a dozen points above that.

I'll be attempting to follow one of my seasonal strategies in 2016....one that incorporates seasonal tendencies, with a dash of the lunar phases thrown in...and a simple TA approach to decide if we're in a bull or bear market...right now that has me under bear market rules, so unless things change quickly early in 2016 (if there's a strong surge higher above 2135) I'll be hibernating in the G fund for much of the year...but I'm sure I won't be able to resist using the Elliott Waves to try to time some rallies. The first of those rallies could start around Jan 19th unless the market explodes higher right out of the gate....

https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2015/12/28/lt-wave-for-january/

Interesting interview of Eric Hadik, he's often right and he's expecting the market to break down soon....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlh2zpshz1w

Meanwhile it would seem that the oversold energy and commodity sector is ready to support a big move up in 2016. Wheat (WEAT) for example sure looks like it's bottoming to me.

Over the last 3 days I see a very clear 5 waves up, and now a small 5 waves down, which could be wave A of a small A-B-C corrective wave that could bottom late today or tomorrow around 2060...or it could be the very first impulse wave down of the re-emerging bear market. As always, the market keeps us guessing.

Best wishes for everyone in 2016!

:fest30:
 
Thx again for your Posts TS; I pay a lot of attention and try to learn from your sharing & that of Tom and so many others on this Forum! Glad to see you have your "Sword-swinging WSU Pirate Swagger" moniker on again (so thankful to win Sun Bowl and be 9-4 for the year)... thx for representing us there! Now, go Hawks!
Yes, a flat year I'm conservative with TSP erring on trying not to lose much; moved half my chips to G-fund COB yesterday & end up with a GAIN (it appears) for the year (wopping +0.5%)... and just starting to attempt some swing-trading in Robinhood using Stockcharts "above the Green line" & other indicators. I wish you and all TSP-Talkers a successful Happy New Year.
 
Well I'm hoping the market explodes right out of the gate. I changed my allocation today to 45% C Fund, 40% S Fund and 15% I Fund. I'm looking for a quick explosion with an exit sometime early next week. Then I'll sit in the G Fund and wait for the 19th.

Have a Happy New Year! :fest30:
 
FAAM, thanks...the blizzard in New Mexico kept my wife and I from going to the game...
https://www.google.com/search?q=new...-z7YTKAhVY4GMKHWdpBhUQsAQIHA&biw=1366&bih=620

...so now I have two unused Sun Bowl tickets to put in my scrapbook next to two unused 2003 Rose Bowl tickets (I went to that game, and the '98 Rose Bowl, but I won two extra tickets in a contest that I couldn't even give away in '03)...I see that Leach signed a contract extension through 2020, and the returning players say they're on a mission to go to and win the Rose Bowl next year, I love that attitude.....

ESPN: The best reasoning we've heard for going on fourth down...

"To overcome the disappointment of not making it on third down." -- Washington State coach Mike Leach


I'm looking forward to going to the Seahawks game Sunday, even though it will likely be a slaughter. :sick:

As for the market, now I see that perfect ABC correction finished at today's close...or, a wave 3 down is underway....tomorrow may not be decisive due to low volume, but I think next week the market will make it clear if the bulls or bears will rule in 2016....

If small caps are leading the way, it doesn't look good for bulls...

"Enjoy the likely Santa Claus Rally in the very short term, but prepare for a rough new year."

S&P 600 ETF (IJR) Moves to Official Bear Market
 
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Enjoy the Hawks game TS. they aren't the same team as last year but I'd enjoy seeing them beat the Cards. You never know in pro ball. I'll be watching until we head out to the airport for a short vacation to Aloha land.

I've been debating whether this has been an ABC correction, or a wave 3 down, or a 1-2-i-ii. If it is a wave 3 down, it could dip to 1920. I hope that happens in 2016, not tomorrow. I wish the EW guys could actually tell you the count as things happen. I usually don't get the right count until everything's over...As I'm reading this oil is in an overnight tug-of-war. It retreated to 36.57, then bounced to 36.80, and has retreated to 36.60..No idea where it all ends...but I know this...if it ends up, we bounce a little up, if it goes down....well let's not go there.. I'm at least happy to see that it rallied to 36.80...You Go Oil..

FS
 
FS - Starting out the new year in Hawaii sounds like a great time. We spent 2 weeks there (3 islands) last May and had a great time....
Maui pics - https://goo.gl/photos/uzfskhxCERcJRARu6
Hawaii pics - https://goo.gl/photos/yiGqKcrbyjnBSvvr5
hmm, hope I don't regret posting those...although I have to say, we spent 5 days at Waikiki and it has become just waaay too crowded and for the first time I felt awfully "old" there, not many grey beards to be seen there LOL.

The S&P got within just a couple points of breaking that first crucial level of 2044, and with under 5 hours to go it doesn't look good for a positive year for the benchmark S&P 500... so far the drop looks like 3 waves down though, so I can't conclude yet that it's downhill from here (and breaking the 2005 low will be much more important for the bull/bear battle). I closed out a quick QQQ put trade for a nice gain this morning and (if the current little bounce stalls out around 2055, in which case it would look like a wave 4, then we get another drop that looks like a wave 5 that breaks 2044.2) will wait for a wave 2 bounce next week to reload on those. I think 2016 will be a difficult one to make money and for the TSP I'll be spending a lot of time in the G fund just looking for rallies...the focus instead will be on my trading account.
 
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i don't want this to come off sounding wrong or anything, but does your wife have a sister?

that is obviously one confident, competent, content woman you got there. and you ain't holding up half bad yourself neither. that is pretty cool to see folks have something nice for themselves and enjoying life. pretty dang rare actually, good for you guys. you should probably be thanking her, a lot.

happy new year, and happy trading.
 
i don't want this to come off sounding wrong or anything, but does your wife have a sister?

that is obviously one confident, competent, content woman you got there. and you ain't holding up half bad yourself neither. that is pretty cool to see folks have something nice for themselves and enjoying life. pretty dang rare actually, good for you guys. you should probably be thanking her, a lot.

happy new year, and happy trading.

LOL...thanks Burro, I just read your post to her and she had a good laugh...yep, she has good genes (she in her 50s like me) but sorry, no sisters LOL....and you're very right in her assessment of her...in 2014/2015 she added being Ms. Home Improvement to her resume, and with almost no help from me she completely remodeled all three of our bathrooms! She's also the funniest person I know, and back in her Navy days consistently bowled about 190....best of all she puts up with me. I'm a lucky guy to have had her for 20+ years now...since you liked those so much here's the link to our Colorado road trip in September...the dog is her Bouvier des Flandres...a dog that never barks, never destroys anything, doesn't shed, and does anything you ask...I have two perfect girls!

https://goo.gl/photos/tx9a4NwoiY5b2uV96

Ah, the TSP has posted the 12/31 share prices, time to finalize the numbers for 2015.
 
Beautiful places, I've got to go there before I Kick Off I'm putting them on my Bucket list. Happy New Year Tsunami!
 
OK, drum roll....here are the final 2015 results for the various systems I've developed over the last few years and am now tracking. I've probably put a thousand hours into this by now. The summary table below includes both the 2015 results, and the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of each system for the last 12 years. The bull/bear systems are identical to the Hybrid systems except for my attempt to use simple TA (RSI and MACD on a monthly chart) to time bull/bear markets. When it goes under bear system rules that system just stays in the G fund, and for as much as the first two years of a bull market signal it just stays in the S fund...so those two systems lagged this year since they went into bear mode (stay in the G fund until the bear market is over) back in mid-July when my bear rules triggered (what remains to be proven is if we're really in a bear market right now, so far the market refuses to roll over). I've also updated my spreadsheet (a tedious process!) to put in all the trade dates for each system through 2016, and eventually plan to do that at least 30 years into the future so my beautiful wife could continue to make the IFTs for decades into the future and become a multi-millionaire without me. My plan is to stick with the bull/bear system using the G fund going forward in 2016 and in future bear markets in the 2020s...all the systems did better with the F fund over the last 12 years, but I think that tide is turning (at least as long as the Fed insists on raising rates, I'll switch to the bull/bear F fund system if the economy/markets forces them to stop)....so without further ado....

2015 Results.JPG
 
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