Tsunami's Account Talk

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TS thanks for the chart. This last trade has been extremely rough. I thought about bailing today and buying back in after the FOMC meeting but your chart and a little advice from burro gives me reason to stay the course. At this point all I can hope for is to get back some of the losses, write 2015 of and start anew in 2016.

Let's hope the trend continues and the lunar red period gives us a nice gain. the new moon comes in on 11 December so the lunar red period should start at the latest by the 14th. Gee, just in time for a nice Santa Rally. :1244:

As for my Ravens, not to worry. They have been a playoff team for the past 6 years and won the Super Bowl in 2012. One of the bad things about being successful is the better you are the less you have to choose from in the draft. That fact will eventually catch up with your Seahawks as well. I have every confidence that Ozzie Newsome (our GM) will work his magic and have the Ravens back in contention in no time at all. Besides two of the best games I've seen this year was when we beat Pittsburgh and last weekend when the lowly Eagles beat the Patriots.

Have a great day and good luck with your investments! ~:D
 
If SPX falls below 2019, we have a much bigger problem on out hands. I am reading that support falls to 1991, then 1956. That's a lot of territory to lose and have any chance of recovering in the short term. Just FYI. Currently looking for my ostrich hole.

FS
 
airlift said:
Tsunami,

I was able to open the link, but the information is fuzzy and hard to read and understand. Can you please give a brief statement highlighting the most likely possibilities going forward? Thanks.
Click to expand...

Basically, I can summarize that he's saying if markets don't do down, then they'll go up LOL...but per the three peaks and a domed house pattern (which I've never ever seen work once someone starts to track it) the eventual top should come next May.
 
As Cramer just pointed out the liquidation of a junk bond fund is big news. Junk bonds have been diverging like crazy from stocks lately. Maybe now stocks will catch up. Maybe not.

I got tired of the bleeding yesterday and got out and locked in a loss for the year (looking back at my records, my 5th worst year since 1991), which probably means it will bottom today and soar now.
 
The VIX has now broken upward from Peter Eliades’ wedge in his latest update…

“a convincing move above the red trendline would suggest that a new downtrend of importance could have been initiated on the S&P 500″…

”We continue to believe that the highs reached in May 2015 could not only have marked an important top on the major averages and indexes, but it could well have marked a top that would not be convincingly overcome for well over a decade, or even two.”

Consensus Financial Commentary

Looks like the market is trying to send the Fed a signal, but will they listen?
Looks like the key level of the mid-November low (2019.39) is about to break...Art Cashin just said if that breaks things could accelerate down.
 
Junk bonds figured this out a year ago. Carl Icahn is talking about it right now on CNBC... Icahn: "I think the market is very dangerous".

The stock market needs to catch up to this chart....

Lach14 - Was Icahn right about Hi Yld bomb? $SPY versus $JNk. NOt p... | StockTwits

...but perhaps a low for the month coming early next week?

RyanDetrick - The average $SPX in December the past 20 years is actually d... | StockTwits

Another look, a drop to the August low matches my expectations for the first bottom.....
$SPX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

...and perhaps that occurs around early January per this chart I posted a few days ago (the blue butterfly won out)....
http://i.imgur.com/cNZ4J7C.png
 
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I think you're right TS. More down action is probably coming at us through Wednesday and Thursday next week. No idea how Monday and Tuesday shape up but so far anything that appears to make sense from a TA perspective makes no sense. I don't see the market rallying on a rate hike. Maybe a bit later. Hopefully, we are still in a bull market and can make it all back in January.

FS
 
Tsunami said:
Junk bonds figured this out a year ago. Carl Icahn is talking about it right now on CNBC... Icahn: "I think the market is very dangerous".

The stock market needs to catch up to this chart....

Lach14 - Was Icahn right about Hi Yld bomb? $SPY versus $JNk. NOt p... | StockTwits

...but perhaps a low for the month coming early next week?

RyanDetrick - The average $SPX in December the past 20 years is actually d... | StockTwits

Another look, a drop to the August low matches my expectations for the first bottom.....
$SPX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

...and perhaps that occurs around early January per this chart I posted a few days ago (the blue butterfly won out)....
http://i.imgur.com/cNZ4J7C.png
Click to expand...

These charts almost m
ake a play for a Santa Rally look too risky :worried:
 
Things finally got extremely oversold there at 1993. Now we'll see if Santa can muster a rally to new highs, or not. I'm committed to sitting it out either way.
 
Bonds are set up for a big move...down most likely....

Econocasts: 2011.10.14 DJIA: Long $ Short Term Predictions

...and normally when bonds go down stocks go up...but will this time be "normal"? Small caps should be leading the way in December and instead they're heading straight down.

I checked a past prediction of this guy at random and it was awful (from 2011), but still this looks a little scary...
Econocasts: 2015.12.11 DJIA Cycle Model Chart

Today was the final day of a positive lunar green period. Will we get another red period going against the lunar forces next?
https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/performance/

I think the purple path is more likely here but it could go either way. Flip a coin...
http://trader-moe.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/to-purple-megaphone-bottom.jpg
 
Nice rally, but is it just a bear market rally? Small caps are again lagging, not a good sign....the S&P 500 has a gap to fill at 2052...QQQ's gap is at 113.40, so I expect we'll see that today...then comes the 200dma at 2062.5...which also happens to be the typical 62% retracement for a wave 2 rally. I'll be watching to see what happens there and harvesting my gains in my trading account later today.

Meanwhile, for retirees and others keeping score...

Last year the COLA count finished 0.5% in the hole, so there needs to be 0.5% inflation in the CPI this year just to get back to even:
Retirees in the hole, COLA-wise - FederalNewsRadio.com

So far we've had 0.2% in October, and now today we got 0.0% for November, not a great start and still -0.3% in the hole for a 2017 COLA.
Economic

The tsunami of retiring baby boomers that I've been talking about for five years still has a firm grip on the economy, and we have another five years or so to get through this tidal wave.
 
If the daggone cereal boxes would stabilize and stop going down in size I would say the silver lining is that this no-cola stuff is helping the USG budget. :)
 
My guess is that S&P lights up like a rocket at dawn and heads for 2060 (I hope it breaks above 2060 for the daytime high). However, I think it pulls back to 2020 by 2PM after the Fed announcement (please, please, please), and then we break resistance at 2060 and close at somewhere between 2061 and 2069. That would make for some holiday cheer. TS: I agree with you on small caps. They are lagging. I was speculating that they had a lot more losers than SPX and the index has been separating the wheat from the chaff this month. I would like to see that process finished and S Fund start performing again.

FS
 
FogSailing said:
My guess is that S&P lights up like a rocket at dawn and heads for 2060 (I hope it breaks above 2060 for the daytime high). However, I think it pulls back to 2020 by 2PM after the Fed announcement (please, please, please), and then we break resistance at 2060 and close at somewhere between 2061 and 2069. That would make for some holiday cheer. TS: I agree with you on small caps. They are lagging. I was speculating that they had a lot more losers than SPX and the index has been separating the wheat from the chaff this month. I would like to see that process finished and S Fund start performing again.

FS
Click to expand...

Well it zipped right up to the 2060 resistance area, but now what? It's fascinating to watch from the sidelines at this point (I refuse to have my face ripped off, been there done that LOL), and I really have no clue which way it will go. Logic says straight up after perhaps an initial wrong-way quick selloff (which would be a very quick wave 2 down, to be followed by a big wave 3 up), but there are fundamental reasons it could just keep going straight down as well (e.g., the negative effects of interest rate increases on emerging markets). I see EEM is up today, that may be a hint that worries are overblown.
 
Agree. Think I may bail tomorrow and jump back on Friday...or not.....I've been riding this wave so long it's almost ridiculous to go there.

FS
 
Based on that face ripping rally, I'd say unless the market starts tanking hard within a couple days then it's quite likely that it's heading on up into the 2200's next year...maybe another sell in May and go away year next year. Short term there should at least be a 38% pullback coming though....maybe bottoming about the 23rd which is when the Santa Rally traditionally starts.
 
TS,

Been tracking the lunar red period for both the C and S funds. As of COB today C fund is +3.01% and the S fund is +2.16%. Looks like the trend continues to be inverted.

Best of luck to you!!!
 
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