Tsunami's Account Talk

[Tsunami]

The day may have forced my hand anyway. It looks like another negative day given the news. I hope we hold above 2019. If we do, then Monday should still bounce up to the 2060 area. I'll have to place close attention to the news because Tuesday either the Red Lunar period works for us and we see strength from the season come into play, or we complete Wave C down.

FS

Looks like the wave B top is in at this point, but short-term things are getting oversold and I'll look for a strong bounce to consider getting out next week...not today though. I don't want to look but assume I'm in the red for the year now. Argh.

 

[Tsunami]

Well, I've done it. Moved to G effective today. It's a coin flip but based on the combined views of the gurus I currently value the most I think the odds are that the market is headed lower until around 11/25, then higher into mid-December, but that will be a lower (wave 2) peak. Assuming that's right (and I have no idea) then the quandary was will the rally that starts next week exceed today's close by 12/1 when I can get back in? I have no idea and I'm usually wrong when I do that, and I just locked in a loss for the year if I can't get a small gain in December. Ugh.

On the bright side though...Go Cougs! Few saw it since it happened in the middle of the night, but the nations leading passer (Luke Falk), who's not even mentioned for the Heisman, did it yet again and brought the cardiac kids back from sure defeat for the 5th time in 14 starts in the final minute with a 75-yard drive and a TD strike with 3 seconds to go to beat the privileged ones at the Rose Bowl....and now we're ranked, finally, for the first time since 2003. It feels so much sweeter when perennial underdogs finally pull it together. It was an exciting weekend in the Land of Enchantment with Holly Holm's shocker (it was no surprise to anyone in New Mexico, she's been unstoppable for a decade) and the Lobos shocker on the smurf turf in Boise. I just wished my Seahawks hadn't spoiled the perfect sports weekend.

 

[ravensfan]

Gutsy move TS. Meanwhile I'm LMAO (losing my a$$ off). I'm hoping this lunar red period will continue the inverted pattern and be positive so I'm staying the course. :smile:

 

[FAAM]

!!! Yesssssssss, GO COUGS!!! Was at the game w/my better half, sitting in a sea of light-blue. They erupted with their QB's go-ahead TD and 2-pt conversion. 1:09 left, I wasn't very optimistic yet didn't panic... and like you said, Cougs marched down, winning TD pass, and we erupted - they deflated. Nice Saturday; heading back home soon. Go Cougs! Go France! (Go Hawks?). Go markets... after a little more drop to good buy-in point.
And... thanks again for your quality forum sharing here.

On the bright side though...Go Cougs! Few saw it since it happened in the middle of the night, but the nations leading passer (Luke Falk), who's not even mentioned for the Heisman, did it yet again and brought the cardiac kids back from sure defeat for the 5th time in 14 starts in the final minute with a 75-yard drive and a TD strike with 3 seconds to go to beat the privileged ones at the Rose Bowl....and now we're ranked, finally, for the first time since 2003. It feels so much sweeter when perennial underdogs finally pull it together.
View attachment 35955

 

[Tsunami]

Was at the game w/my better half, sitting in a sea of light-blue.

Oh cool, I'm jealous! I've been to many Cougar victories in Berkeley and Stanford (lived in the Bay Area for 22 years) but I've only been to two games in the Rose Bowl (the '98 and '03 Rose Bowls...I still wish the refs would have given Ryan Leaf just one second after that spike so he could have taken a shot at the end zone on that final play) and didn't get to leave victorious in either case, like you did.
Next victim Colorado...then another nail biter victory in the Apple Cup over the Dawgs would be nice...with Falk going over 5,000 yards in that game. Man I wish that field goal would have gone through against Stanford...they'd be playing for the Rose Bowl if it had. That poor kicker will have nightmares for life over that.

Market is looking stronger and stronger...today could be a wave 2, and tomorrow comes the next decline, but perhaps more likely this morning was a wave 4 low and now I'll just get to watch it go up to record highs without me for two weeks. Sigh.

This chart will likely show two buy signals at the close today, which is very bullish usually...
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Interesting how the lunar thing was working so well all year, and now it's completely failing. Tomorrow could be much different though, we'll see.

....Hey, I just noticed...FS, you took my 1000th post LOL.

 

[FogSailing]

I think you have it right TS but I'm still in so I hope you have it wrong.. Raven and I both want some up daze in our portfolio (at least a couple)... Congrats to the Cougs. They are playing super football this year!

FS

 

[Tsunami]

Looks like the bulls have the ball and are driving in beast mode barring a fumble overnight. A gap up tomorrow should mean new all-time highs coming for December.

Brrr, it's snowing out my window...

 

[FogSailing]

Here's to GAP-UPS :beerchug:

FS

 

[ravensfan]

Here's to GAP-UPS :beerchug:

FS

I second that!!!

 

[Tsunami]

Things are coming to a head. Gold has hit a new low and is in a final panic sell-off http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&id=p98053460295
… silver is 17 cents away from a new low, and both show completed wave structures that could bottom any day (and miners are now hitting a new low, showing positive divergence which validates that they are a great buy right now...I like PVG, FSM and FNV among others).

“Captain Hook” has been predicting for a loooong time that inflation would take off once the $INDU:$XAU ratio reached 400…then within a few months, if not much sooner, gold would take off and stocks would plunge…and today it finally got there to that ratio of 400 in a final blow off and perfect 5 waves up from the low four years ago when gold/commodities peaked:
http://news.goldseek.com/CaptainHook/1447704934.php
(he wrote that on 10/30, and note the interesting link regarding B of A’s prediction that the China bond bubble will implode next year, that will be partof next year’s troubles)

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU%3A%24XAU&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27629488611

Commodities are finally poised for a massive reversal. Copper is in a final free fall...WEAT is another example I like and I'll grab a bushel or two in my IRA within a week……cattle is another…time to buy a side of beef for the freezer and take the sweetie out for a nice steak dinner.

The stock index’s sit on the cliff edge tonight and I’m not so sure of that one final rally to new highs. For today at least, I’m feeling just fine sitting in G.

 

[Tsunami]

The 2011 analogy makes no sense..... but the 1937 analogy sure does and fits perfectly with Tom McClellan's predicted early April bottom...which would then be followed by a slightly lower wave 5 bottom next June...and at ~1400 that would be a painful but normal 50% bear market. I don't see any reason why this can't happen, especially if the Fed raises rates next month. The quarter-percent is irrelevant to the economy, but the psychological damage could kick off the decline....

Market Analogs: Are We Heading Toward 2011 Or 1937? | investing.com

 

[Tsunami]

The Fed sure has a lot of catching up to do in order to get where the market is telling them to go with rates...

TMUBMUSD02Y Bond Quote - U.S. 2 Year Treasury Note Bond Price Today (TMUBMUSD02Y:TPI) - MarketWatch

2-Year T-Note Shows Path For FOMC - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial

 

[FogSailing]

Interesting article TS. And that is quite a spread. The Fed is a very interesting organization operating under a charter with general oversight by Congress, no appropriations, and expected to operate as an independent entity. I can see McClellan's point where poor fed policy has impacted economic booms and caused a few "bubbles". However, except for instances of extreme political pressure, I don't see them being beholden or aligned to Wall Street. Still McClellan's points are based on common sense and would seem to be the way things should work. Crazy world we live in.

Right now I'm trying to determine when we greet Mr. Bear. There are other forums that are saying the Russell is already in a bear market hence the flight to SPX and Dow. The SPX has had a lot of choppy sideways action this week and makes me wonder where its headed. I was hoping for a Santa rally but don't have a feel for whether SPX pulls back before that occurs or whether we see a quick skyrocket rally to 2170....if we make it that high. It feels like if we're going to have a Santa rally, we at least need to see a few elves. Based on looking at todays charts the SPX looks ready to pullback to somewhere in the 2070 area tomorrow where it hits support. Tomorrow is Options Expiration day so it will be interesting to see how that plays out.

All the best to you guys in your investing.

FS

 

[Tsunami]

This is getting really extreme. The S&P is now at the Fibonacci 78% retrace of the early November decline. Today or Monday is the time for the bears to wake up, otherwise go back to hibernating...

 

[Whipsaw]

Shhhhhhh!! Let the sleeping bears lie!

This is getting really extreme. The S&P is now at the Fibonacci 78% retrace of the early November decline. Today or Monday is the time for the bears to wake up, otherwise go back to hibernating...

View attachment 36000

 

[ravensfan]

If I have my dates correct I'm showing the C Fund +3.31% and the S Fund +2.45% for this current lunar red period.

With that said, we are still inverted, red periods being positive and green periods being negative. Here's hoping the uptrend continues into next week. The next full moon comes in on November 25th and if the inverted trend continues, (green being negative and red being positive) we should be set nicely for the Santa Claus rally...Woohoo

 

[Tsunami]

Working through some resistance here...
http://blog.kimblechartingsolutions...11/spxatfallingweeklyhighsresistancenov24.jpg
...but I think it will and there's a small inverse H&S that will take it on up to the recent 2116 high, then a larger H&S that targets the upper 2100s...probably by the time the Force arrives on 12/18. May the Force be with the bulls! (and the Warriors too, I'm a Warrior fan thanks to ex-Coug Klay Thompson...and Go Cougs!... beat the Fuskies in the Apple Cup this Friday!!)

Looks like that resistance is breaking down right now...Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

 

[Tsunami]

Not an easy read (did Yoda edit this?), but this analysis of the DAX backs up my current thoughts of a peak near the Fed's rate hike in mid-December, followed by a big drop down to a low in the April to June 2016 timeframe....

22112015

As for today, looks like another drop down to about 2085 might be needed to finish the right shoulder of the inverse H&S over the last four days...which can be visualized in chart 52 in the link below... all of this points to me jumping back in on December 1st to grab whatever is left of the rally... hopefully enough for me to finish ahead of the G fund for the year LOL...

Above the Green Line - Nov 25, 2015 Buy high, and Sell Higher: Momentum Investing - Joanne Klein - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com

 

[airlift]

Not an easy read (did Yoda edit this?), but this analysis of the DAX backs up my current thoughts of a peak near the Fed's rate hike in mid-December, followed by a big drop down to a low in the April to June 2016 timeframe....

22112015

As for today, looks like another drop down to about 2085 might be needed to finish the right shoulder of the inverse H&S over the last four days...which can be visualized in chart 52 in the link below... all of this points to me jumping back in on December 1st to grab whatever is left of the rally... hopefully enough for me to finish ahead of the G fund for the year LOL...

Above the Green Line - Nov 25, 2015 Buy high, and Sell Higher: Momentum Investing - Joanne Klein - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com

Tsunami,

Hopefully these charts justify buying today and the SPX will most likely rally upward. I copied the charts in my favorites. Do you think that I can use them every day by only refreshing the page? Thank you.

 

[Tsunami]

Tsunami,

Hopefully these charts justify buying today and the SPX will most likely rally upward. I copied the charts in my favorites. Do you think that I can use them every day by only refreshing the page? Thank you.

Yes - Just refresh to update the charts. She even updates her guess at the wave count intra-day.

Here's a few more in my bookmark collection I look at once in a while...

Orderly Bull - Jaroslaw Jac - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com

TREND CHANGES - Bob Karrow - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com

Jeffrey Young's Public Chart List - Jeffrey Young - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com

The Chart Pattern Trader - Ron Walker - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com