FogSailing
Well-known member
TS: Above the Green Line is super charting. Some of the best I've seen; except for some of PUGs detailed charting.
FS
FS
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Tsunami's Account Talk
- Thread starter Tsunami
- Start date
FogSailing help me out to understand what you mean by "above the Green Line is super charting".. And, what are PUGs. Are you referring to the initial chart posted today by Tsunami? Tsunami, is there a legend or guide to these charts posted by Ms. Klein?
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FogSailing
Well-known member
Hi Airlift. the Above the Green Line are some of Tsunami's chart. PUG is a private analyst who publishes excellent information on Elliott wave and market conditions. You can find him on the internet and can follow him on Twitter. He charges for his services if you want the detailed information.
Regards,
FS
Regards,
FS
Tsunami
Well-known member
I can answer those...
"FogSailing help me out to understand what you mean by "above the Green Line is super charting"" - He means he likes her charts
"And, what are PUGs. Are you referring to the initial chart posted today by Tsunami?" - PUG is an Elliott Wave/technical chart guy. Some of his stuff is free, otherwise he's pretty expensive for the daily updates:
https://pugsma.wordpress.com/longer-term-sp-500-view/
https://twitter.com/PUGStockMarket
"Tsunami, is there a legend or guide to these charts posted by Ms. Klein?" - Explore each page...see page 1, and on page 1 it says rules are on page 3...I'm not aware if she has a website...but I see she has a twitter feed: https://twitter.com/AboveGreenLine One of these years I might get a stockcharts account but it's too easy to just let other people post great charts for me. If you really want to get into charting (I don't) I see lots of learning tools to start with here: StockCharts.com - Free Charts
Hmm, and this might be something I'll do to entertain myself while watching football/basketball for the next four days, surf through the public chartlists and bookmark some more of them....
Public ChartLists - Free Charts - StockCharts.com
... and right off the bat the "Think Tank" charts look interesting: http://stockcharts.com/public/3421479/tenpp/2 I like chart 1.131 on page 2, showing what has happened with the last two Presidential transitions...then he shows "Obama to Trump". If history repeats look out below next year.
"FogSailing help me out to understand what you mean by "above the Green Line is super charting"" - He means he likes her charts
"And, what are PUGs. Are you referring to the initial chart posted today by Tsunami?" - PUG is an Elliott Wave/technical chart guy. Some of his stuff is free, otherwise he's pretty expensive for the daily updates:
https://pugsma.wordpress.com/longer-term-sp-500-view/
https://twitter.com/PUGStockMarket
"Tsunami, is there a legend or guide to these charts posted by Ms. Klein?" - Explore each page...see page 1, and on page 1 it says rules are on page 3...I'm not aware if she has a website...but I see she has a twitter feed: https://twitter.com/AboveGreenLine One of these years I might get a stockcharts account but it's too easy to just let other people post great charts for me. If you really want to get into charting (I don't) I see lots of learning tools to start with here: StockCharts.com - Free Charts
Hmm, and this might be something I'll do to entertain myself while watching football/basketball for the next four days, surf through the public chartlists and bookmark some more of them....
Public ChartLists - Free Charts - StockCharts.com
... and right off the bat the "Think Tank" charts look interesting: http://stockcharts.com/public/3421479/tenpp/2 I like chart 1.131 on page 2, showing what has happened with the last two Presidential transitions...then he shows "Obama to Trump". If history repeats look out below next year.
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Tsunami
Well-known member
RIP Richard Russell. I never subscribed but always paid attention to what he had to say:
A tribute to Richard Russell, who edited Dow Theory Letters for 57 years - MarketWatch
Looks to me like the market is trying to break out into a wave 3 up, the next few days should bring decent gains if so.
Time to prepare for the Apple Cup, just a few hours away. Luke Falk is unlikely to play due to last weeks concussion, so an inexperienced Freshman QB has to step in...WSU is a 7 point underdog....playing in hostile Husky Stadium...UW needs this win to make a bowl game...sounds like a perfect setup for a Cougar upset!
A tribute to Richard Russell, who edited Dow Theory Letters for 57 years - MarketWatch
Looks to me like the market is trying to break out into a wave 3 up, the next few days should bring decent gains if so.
Time to prepare for the Apple Cup, just a few hours away. Luke Falk is unlikely to play due to last weeks concussion, so an inexperienced Freshman QB has to step in...WSU is a 7 point underdog....playing in hostile Husky Stadium...UW needs this win to make a bowl game...sounds like a perfect setup for a Cougar upset!
Tsunami
Well-known member
Tomorrow begins a new month...and a new team to root for LOL...new money pours into the markets tomorrow...Dow futures up triple digits...
...the history of this indicator indicates a 25%+ rally could be starting now: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gKtuB8Fh0Y
TNA sports an inverse H&S pattern that could lead to a 26% gain: https://twitter.com/PUGStockMarket/status/671494668048318464/photo/1
I'm all in, 100% S, getting back into my hybrid seasonal/lunar strategy that I wished I'd been following all year, if I had, I'd be up an incredible 26.38% so far this year...with only one losing trade!
...the history of this indicator indicates a 25%+ rally could be starting now: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gKtuB8Fh0Y
TNA sports an inverse H&S pattern that could lead to a 26% gain: https://twitter.com/PUGStockMarket/status/671494668048318464/photo/1
I'm all in, 100% S, getting back into my hybrid seasonal/lunar strategy that I wished I'd been following all year, if I had, I'd be up an incredible 26.38% so far this year...with only one losing trade!
FogSailing
Well-known member
Thanks TS. Super article. The Copp Ind. sounds great to me. Hope we all make some money this month. Wouldn't that be nice for Xmas.
FS
FS
Tsunami
Well-known member
FS - Yep, I really need a good December to save the year. Danny see's a Santa rally starting on the 20th...
https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2015/11/30/lt-wave-for-december/
I'd feel a lot better about the very bullish view if commodities would finally bottom and move strongly higher this month. No sign of that yet though.
For example, wheat...seems like cereal should be practically free at this point...
WEAT - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
...and natural gas, I'd love to catch this falling knife at the right time but no telling when that is...
UGAZ - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com (looks like it's in a final wave 5 down to me, but could extend for days...weeks...months)
Gold also looks very near a bottom at $1050. A panic drop to $1000 would be a great opportunity, I think.
I don't know, maybe 2016 fools all the bearish gurus and turns out to be a good year for the markets.
https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2015/11/30/lt-wave-for-december/
I'd feel a lot better about the very bullish view if commodities would finally bottom and move strongly higher this month. No sign of that yet though.
For example, wheat...seems like cereal should be practically free at this point...
WEAT - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
...and natural gas, I'd love to catch this falling knife at the right time but no telling when that is...
UGAZ - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com (looks like it's in a final wave 5 down to me, but could extend for days...weeks...months)
Gold also looks very near a bottom at $1050. A panic drop to $1000 would be a great opportunity, I think.
I don't know, maybe 2016 fools all the bearish gurus and turns out to be a good year for the markets.
FogSailing
Well-known member
Agree on both gas and gold. I feel like gold is imminent but gas is far to tricky for me..
If I'm reading his chart correctly, PUG indicates that we are already in a bear market. I hope he is wrong on that point. I'm still looking at 2170 as the end of the bull and hoping we are still in a bull and that we get there.
FS
If I'm reading his chart correctly, PUG indicates that we are already in a bear market. I hope he is wrong on that point. I'm still looking at 2170 as the end of the bull and hoping we are still in a bull and that we get there.
FS
FAAM
Active member
TS: Thanks again so much for posting your thoughts, links to interesting indicators (TNA, ETC.) and Lunar-Trader; and for your table about your "SS" method. QUESTION: Do you post when that method calls for changes and what/when those are? I didn't review your prior forum posts here to check..... I'm all in said:
AND about the A.C. - I saw Bender play pretty well when Falk injured in prior two games (was at UCLA roller-coaster game & exciting to win in final minute with Falk), so I thought Bender would pull his weight. Outcome was more horrible that I could have imagined. Hope Falk can play in the "whatever-bowl", & glad the season was much better than expected after game#1. Go Cougs, and GO HAWKS!
Tsunami
Well-known member
FAAM - Thanks...and no I don't post when that system calls for an IFT. I'll summarize it again at some point, but for the time being at this time of year it just stays in the S fund from 11/23 until early March, then it goes to the C fund on the date indicated where small cap strength for the Russell 2000 ends per equityclock.com, linked here: Equity Clock » Seasonality For April (and July), historically the I fund does best so the system goes to the I fund just for April, then back to C for May, then in early June (on a date of the first red lunar phase that starts before about June 8th or so, I forget the precise date but it's per another long-term chart that shows stock market weakness starts about then) I start using the lunar system, going in and out every two weeks through the summer per the phases...I've spent 100's of hours backtesting this and other versions of it, including using the F fund, and so far this is the best system...and since 2004 (and through October 2015) it has averaged an amazing 16.85% per year. Not too shabby.
As for Wazzu, yes it was a great year...Leach is finally earning the big bucks, but I'm actually hoping they get selected for the Sun Bowl (versus the Holiday or Alamo Bowl) since A) I can go to it, its just a 4 hour drive for me, though I realize its a terrible location for most people and not exactly a tourist mecca down in El Paso, and B) they'll have a better shot at winning it, and the program needs that bowl win to keep the momentum going. Next year I think the goal should be nothing less than the Rose Bowl if Falk and other key players stay healthy. They'll get Oregon and UW at home which will help, and Stanford will lose Hogan and McCaffery which will leave them beatable. As for the Hawks...I was so relieved they beat the Steelers, so now I won't need to think about selling my tickets to the Arizona game on 1/3/16. That game should be a big one the way things are shaping up, for Seattle at least, especially if they lose at Minnesota this week.
FS - Here's a chart of gold that tells me for this final wave e (since each leg consists of 3 waves, and so far there's only one leg down for wave e) there needs to be a small rally for a few weeks soon, then one final fall to the final low early next year...I'm guessing in a quick panic selloff to below $1000....it's possible wave e is already over though...and I've already got the miners I want for the ride up next year....
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
The market finished positive today. Historically that has bode very well for the month of December per the post today by this guy, so for now I'm happy I got in...
https://twitter.com/wildcatTrader/
As for Wazzu, yes it was a great year...Leach is finally earning the big bucks, but I'm actually hoping they get selected for the Sun Bowl (versus the Holiday or Alamo Bowl) since A) I can go to it, its just a 4 hour drive for me, though I realize its a terrible location for most people and not exactly a tourist mecca down in El Paso, and B) they'll have a better shot at winning it, and the program needs that bowl win to keep the momentum going. Next year I think the goal should be nothing less than the Rose Bowl if Falk and other key players stay healthy. They'll get Oregon and UW at home which will help, and Stanford will lose Hogan and McCaffery which will leave them beatable. As for the Hawks...I was so relieved they beat the Steelers, so now I won't need to think about selling my tickets to the Arizona game on 1/3/16. That game should be a big one the way things are shaping up, for Seattle at least, especially if they lose at Minnesota this week.
FS - Here's a chart of gold that tells me for this final wave e (since each leg consists of 3 waves, and so far there's only one leg down for wave e) there needs to be a small rally for a few weeks soon, then one final fall to the final low early next year...I'm guessing in a quick panic selloff to below $1000....it's possible wave e is already over though...and I've already got the miners I want for the ride up next year....
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
The market finished positive today. Historically that has bode very well for the month of December per the post today by this guy, so for now I'm happy I got in...
https://twitter.com/wildcatTrader/
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Tsunami
Well-known member
Hmm, for the record, I found a booboo in my spreadsheet below...about once every four years this system runs into a problem where you need to move from G into stocks on the last day of a month, but it isn't possible since you're out of IFTs, so for that 11/1 price I'd mistakenly copied the price from another system (I'm tracking eight different systems) and it's the closing price on 10/30...I needed to change that to the closing C fund price on 11/2 which was 28.2476....which cuts the return for 2016 through 11/30 to 24.74%. Still that's good enough to lead the tracker though.
Who's your daddy MacDaddy!
I just wish it was my real return (e.g., for November I see that I managed to finish with the second WORST return LOL, is there an award for that?...maybe a swift kick in the @ss by my wife 
).
One of my evolving system rules that I have no clue how to implement is that for the year or so when the market is rocketing out of a bear market I'd abandon the system and just stay in stocks (with a simpler seasonal system but never leaving stocks)...and for bear markets I'd want to abandon the system almost altogether and stay more conservative, which is what I've been attempting to do since June but with no luck since its darn near impossible to time the start and end of bear markets (that's the holy grail if you can do it!)...so that part still needs work and I should probably just stay with the system through thick and thin.
Who's your daddy MacDaddy!
I just wish it was my real return (e.g., for November I see that I managed to finish with the second WORST return LOL, is there an award for that?...maybe a swift kick in the @ss by my wife ). One of my evolving system rules that I have no clue how to implement is that for the year or so when the market is rocketing out of a bear market I'd abandon the system and just stay in stocks (with a simpler seasonal system but never leaving stocks)...and for bear markets I'd want to abandon the system almost altogether and stay more conservative, which is what I've been attempting to do since June but with no luck since its darn near impossible to time the start and end of bear markets (that's the holy grail if you can do it!)...so that part still needs work and I should probably just stay with the system through thick and thin.
Tsunami
Well-known member
Hmm, good stuff by old-timer Peter Eliades, and I don't get a warm fuzzy feeling about which way this is going to break...
Consensus Financial Commentary
Consensus Financial Commentary
FogSailing
Well-known member
Very nice analysis. Certainly looks like we're in a correction or welcome mr. bear.
FS
FS
Tsunami
Well-known member
Very nice analysis. Certainly looks like we're in a correction or welcome mr. bear.
FS
Interesting that the VIX did not take off this morning and rise above Eliades' trend line this morning, even though by some measures the market was more oversold than at any other time this year except for late August.
$VIX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
What's that sound I hear?.... I think it's sleigh bells.
Lakebound
Member
I hope so. We've already recovered about a half a point from the opening bell, let's stay positive.
Frank
Tsunami
Well-known member
A lot of talk about oil, but natural gas is in the same boat. How low can it go before the low prices start to cure the low prices? Amazing...
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
These deflationary forces are really starting to weigh heavily on the market, and now the Fed wants to start raising rates. Not good.
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
These deflationary forces are really starting to weigh heavily on the market, and now the Fed wants to start raising rates. Not good.
Tsunami
Well-known member
RF - Yep, the lunar thing has completely stopped working after working so well most of the year.
Here's another chart indicating a low should be very near. The last four times this CPCE indicator got this high the S&P immediately bottomed and then rallied at least 4%.
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com (and I see that just 10 minutes after the open that the overnight permabears that try to sell down the market every night have been overwhelmed by buyers)
P.S. - Sorry that the Ravens have to be the next stepping stone on the Seahawks path to the playoffs. :smile:
Here's another chart indicating a low should be very near. The last four times this CPCE indicator got this high the S&P immediately bottomed and then rallied at least 4%.
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com (and I see that just 10 minutes after the open that the overnight permabears that try to sell down the market every night have been overwhelmed by buyers)
P.S. - Sorry that the Ravens have to be the next stepping stone on the Seahawks path to the playoffs. :smile:
