Tsunami's Account Talk

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Tsunami said:
Based on that face ripping rally, I'd say unless the market starts tanking hard within a couple days then it's quite likely that it's heading on up into the 2200's next year...maybe another sell in May and go away year next year. Short term there should at least be a 38% pullback coming though....maybe bottoming about the 23rd which is when the Santa Rally traditionally starts.
Click to expand...


38%? Thirty Eight Percent? Three Eight ?
 
Tsunami said:
Based on that face ripping rally, I'd say unless the market starts tanking hard within a couple days then it's quite likely that it's heading on up into the 2200's next year...maybe another sell in May and go away year next year. Short term there should at least be a 38% pullback coming though....maybe bottoming about the 23rd which is when the Santa Rally traditionally starts.
Click to expand...

Are you talking about a .38 Fib retracement from the recent rally off the 1990 area....so maybe 2040ish before continuing up?
 
Yes, sorry...I meant a standard 38% retracement of the most recent rally...or more commonly wave 2's retrace 50% or 62%, so it could come back down to fill the gap at 2021 next week....or not, who knows. I think things are shaping up for a nice santa rally (the week between Christmas and New Year's) once the pullback is over.

Even the lunatic trader is going against his own system and wanting to buy with both hands...
https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2015/12/

That big correction down to 1575ish is still on the radar, but maybe pushed back to later in 2016 and 2017...we'll see...the bears are going to go into hibernation if they can't get things rolling back downhill real soon. With the fear of the Fed now out of the way I don't see a catalyst to take the market down hard right now.

P.S. for RF - I was watching the Redzone channel and saw that play where Canty and another 300-pound brut crushed poor Thomas Rawls. A double-ouch since that broken ankle might have also broken the Seahawks Super Bowl hopes. Hopefully Lynch can come back to fill that hole.
 
Tsunami said:
P.S. for RF - I was watching the Redzone channel and saw that play where Canty and another 300-pound brut crushed poor Thomas Rawls. A double-ouch since that broken ankle might have also broken the Seahawks Super Bowl hopes. Hopefully Lynch can come back to fill that hole.
Click to expand...

Hmm...and Canty was put on season ending injured reserve yesterday with a torn pectoral muscle. The longest list for players on injured reserve belongs to the Ravens this year, so the misery continues.
 
H&S pattern on Apple is ready to break down and head for the August panic stop-loss clearing low around 90. That will help drag down QQQ.
https://northmantrader.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/aapl7.png

The rounded top pattern continues, and is ready to roll over at an accelerating rate entering 2016...
https://northmantrader.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/spx-arch3.png

The S&P is now falling away from the long-term trendline...
https://northmantrader.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/esw2.png

The long-term view; the RSI and MACD have a long long long way to fall...
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Zooming in, when wedges break they tend to fall all the way back down to the point of origin...I don't expect that, but it's possible...
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Headed for point #28 on this chart next year?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$I...4934519&a=425764082&r=1446677793737&cmd=print

Shkreli should have called Saul...

Saul.JPG
 
There is a lot of negative looking truth there TS. The technical indicators say BEWARE. Pattern analysis has us showing potential downtrends, bull flags, head and shoulders patterns and extended zigzags (basically 75% negative possibilities)...So I say we bounce to 2040 SPX by Thursday.

FS
 
Yep, lots of bearish views out there. This guy sees a major bear market underway in the transports and Nasdaq, with other indexes to join in now...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZ9qelPej00&feature=youtu.be

Permabear Harry Dent never stops with his warnings, and he might be finally right at this point...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pZidxKCwWnw

I took my older daughter to the Rush R40 concert in San Jose this past summer, an amazing evening and memory with her... I was a Rush fan for all 40 of those years...

I'm feeling a little animated tonight...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wuGuFtqJDXM
Just trying to navigate my way to my own personal Xanadu called retirement...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PlmvdK3yzvs
I'm in no mood to Roll the Bones and happy to be sitting out the market gyrations in the G fund....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kZmK4PKrJ60
This market is definitely losing it!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICTV0_SlhLc
I'm just trying to give out a Distant Early Warning from the subdivisions...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PaSQHNg9UtE
of the high desert in New Mexico....red alert...red alert...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVcMGqhQCkI
 
Last edited:
Looks like we've got a little Santa rally underway...I suspect it will fill the gap in the low 2040s by Thursday's close for the S&P. Beyond that, don't know if Santa will stick around or not.

Mrs. Claus is going to the Sun Bowl in El Paso with me on Saturday, and we'll both be in a grumpy mood come next Monday if my Cougs lose to Miami. :smile:
 
Interesting article. More reasons to fear TS. I hope I can bail before the big downtrend occurs...Meant to bail today and got distracted...If tomorrow is up and SPX between 239 and 2060 at 10am, I'm headed to G. Have fun at the Rose Bowl. Hope you get good weather.

All the best in your investing.

FS
 
FS - There's lots of bullish TA right now, positive divergences and such, if the markets can plow higher again tomorrow this rally has a chance to snowball (up)...it might not decide until the calendar turns to 2016 though.

Going to the Sun Bowl this weekend, I wish it was the Rose Bowl LOL...but now as luck would have it we have a major storm hitting the area this coming weekend, so I might bail out and stay up north and watch on TV (I turned into a weather wimp after living in the Bay Area for 22 years).
 
Tsunami said:
...but now as luck would have it we have a major storm hitting the area this coming weekend, so I might bail out and stay up north and watch on TV (I turned into a weather wimp after living in the Bay Area for 22 years).
Click to expand...

I hear ya...here on the "east" side it's rain, rain, and more rain and not expected to stop anytime soon. I've got water standing at the doorstep of my shop...the rain gutters I installed a few years back have helped but are having a difficult time keeping up with the heavy downpours. Nothing biblical but it's looking like some good kayaking in my back yard right about now...Lol

Gonna be a merry very wet Christmas...

LongShot
 
Was hoping we'd bust thru 2076. Oh well. more drama for Xmas Eve. Hopefully we still move up some and don't have a bad day..Happy Holidays TS!!

FS
 
There's one day left (next Monday) in the 10-day count for the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator to trigger another buy signal. If it can get there Monday that would seem to be VERY bullish. I'd be hoping to get back in on an early January pullback to this 2060 area.
$NYADV:$NYTOT - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Markets Overview - Jd French - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com

The bulls seem to be on the verge of nullifying the long-term bear market signals....Need to get that MACD going the other way for example...
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

It's snowing...a white Christmas here maybe, got to get going...Happy Holiday's everyone!
 
Merry Christmas from the Land of Enchantment! All I want for Christmas is for my Cougs to pleeeeeease beat Miami tomorrow in the Sun Bowl.

NM Xmas.JPG
 
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