Tsunami's Account Talk

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Warrenlm said:
From the linked article on Craig Johnson: ""Our official year-end price objective for the S&P 500 is 2135. I would say that the number we had previously, 2350, is a number that could be achieved perhaps next year. "

Does that mean to say he originally predicted the year 2015 would close at 2350 vice his current forecast of 2135?
Click to expand...

Yeah, I think he did have 2350 a year ago then cut his forecast...

Looks like all systems are go for this rally to continue...my target is 2200 on 12/14/15....then the Fed raises rates a couple days later and tanks the market...

http://i.imgur.com/B9tbrtd.jpg

Hmm, maybe we could even get Fed-induced a "flash crash", oh boy....

JPMorgan
 
No worries yet despite today's red ink.... today looks like the bottom of a wave 4, next up is a run to the upper 2100s...

"The recent 6 weeks up were stairs that didn't overlap or even test a key MA. That's not like a 5 week up in a major top pattern."

https://twitter.com/ukarlewitz

More importantly, my Cougars are bowl eligible for only the 2nd time since 2003...next victim UCLA? One of my favorite meals at the dorm dining hall in college was Bruin Burgers before a big game. Hmm, that brings back memories of this big goal line stand against Troy Aikman....as called by Keith Jackson, one of WSU's greatest alumni.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qqzIc4AU5ZU
 
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I like your optimism TS. I lost my nerve in August and ended up with a 4.62% loss. I learned a costly lesson and will stand pat this time.
 
I'll be hanging in there with you Raven. I'm trusting in the holiday season to get everything back and add to the pot!! I hope Santa sees it that way as well.

From Tony Caldero's site: Thus far we see a corrective pullback from the Major wave 3 high: 2090-2104-2084-2099-2068-2083. Since Major wave 2 was a multi-week event, we are expecting Major 4 to also take some time to unfold. This would suggest the market could continue to be choppy for the next couple of weeks.

If Mr Caldero is correct, then retracement could go to 2040 or as low as 2019 (1.618 Fib retracement) before we see the bottom of this wave. However, if wave 4 ended today or ends tomorrow, we can break out the hula skirts.

The one comment that got my attention was the comparison to Wave 4 down unfolding over several weeks to match the Wave 2 up. If correct, that means choppy trading for at least the rest of this week (Just for chuckles: Today 2099 to 2078 (-21), Tues - 2078 to 2085 (old support) (+14), Wed - 2085 to 2055 (-30), Thurs - 2055 to 2070 (old support) (+15), Friday 2070 to 2040 (resistance and pivot point) (-30)- end of wave 4 and pivot point for Wave 5 assuming it moves that fast. In this pullback scenario, the upticks do not offset the downticks.

Off course, if we're having a major pullback to 2040 or lower it could unfold any number of ways.

Lots to think about over night.

FS

JTH shows that Wed-Fri are historically positive days the majority of the time while Mon-Tuesday are historically negative days.
 
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Thanks FS. There's strength in numbers and I need all the support I can get to keep from doing stupid stuff when markets are pulling back.

I took some time after yesterday's close to do a self valuation of my trading style. I use all the tools, bollenger bands, RSI, Slow stochastics, moon phase (still having a tough time with the wave stuff) to help determine when to enter and exit the market. Sometimes I get it right and make money and other times the market does exactly the opposite of what the charts are telling me. That's when fear sets in and I bail. Every time we have a pullback I listen to the naysayers and OMG it's 2008 again.

With that said, once I enter the market, if it goes down, I need to stay the course until the closing price is more than what I bought in at. I bailed on August 25th thinking OMG it's 2008 again. If I had stayed and taken advantage of the great October we had. I would be about 4% up for the year and further up the autotracker instead of negative for the year.

No one, absolutely no one is 100% accurate at timing the markets. Some are better at it than others and they consistently make money. The only thing we can control is when we enter and exit and what fund we want to be in. So the new Raven will not fall into the trap and run to the G Fund when things go south. The move to G will only be used for profit taking.

Now let's start making some money again!!! :D:D:D
 
TS: If you check in I would really appreciate your thoughts on whether you think we're still in a 4 wave headed down. My instincts are telling me that we are and I think I may have to move tomorrow to miss the next 1.5% pullback to between 2040 and 2019. Are you reading this the same? Thanks.

FS
 
FogSailing said:
TS: If you check in I would really appreciate your thoughts on whether you think we're still in a 4 wave headed down. My instincts are telling me that we are and I think I may have to move tomorrow to miss the next 1.5% pullback to between 2040 and 2019. Are you reading this the same? Thanks.

FS
Click to expand...

Yes, the last week still has looked very overlapping, which is likely a correction. And since I think the top will come around 12/14 at the end of the next lunar green period, that fits with this being a wave 4. It could be over or could have a bit more downside to go for a day or two...and maybe down to the 2050 area is still OK....
https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2015/11/09/pullback-time/

But no worries since we are all protected by the magic green arc! NL 11/08/15
(from what I gather Gunner is pretty well respected, but that's kinda weird to me to think that a line on a piece of paper can control the market...but I suppose that's what a lot of TA is all about) :blink:

Unless of course the planets take this thing down...

Advanced Astro Indicator - A Modernized Bradley Siderograph

Where do I get this stuff? LOL...

Another one...Raj is awfully accurate...sometimes... Raj Times and Cycles He says the low should be in today...maybe LOL.

And while I'm pretty much convinced next year will see another big drop...others think the bull market has a long way to go... Peter Ghostine for example...
http://www.61point8.com/Portals/0/article images/20151110/20151110SPX1.png
https://twitter.com/peterghostine

PUG thinks there's a bit more upside...2193 max...then down hard to 1600 or lower...
https://twitter.com/PUGStockMarket
 
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Absolutely fascinating reads TS. Thanks for sharing. It really makes it challenging to determine which of these scenarios are closest to correct. They all are based on a unique logic. I imagine they have all been right and they've all had a misstep or two along the road...haven't we all. I think Raj and Pug explain their approach in a way that closer aligns to how I think events will unfold, so it will be fun to watch the show as it happens.

Fascinating that the planets are the most bearish of the group. Here I was hoping it was the Age of Acquarius...:D:D:D

I don't know that I'm in a hurry to get to 2200. I think I'll move to a safer haven as we get close to number.

FS
 
If you look at the current lunar performance page you can figure out when the next period will start within a day, and ebikerz has it right https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/performance/ and a red period starts Saturday. But after an amazing streak this year the last two lunar periods haven't worked at all. At this point I'm banking on the coming red period making it three straight periods not working.

The S&P parked right at support at 2046. This area better hold, otherwise it looks like the Grinch came early this year and I'll have to plot an exit strategy....which usually consists of panicking and selling at a bottom.

Still falling a bit after hours. I'll just hold my breath until it goes up. :sick:
 
If we get a positive day tomorrow, I think I may have to sell for the loss and move to G. If the market rebounds, I made a mistake. If it doesn't, my loss is contained to about 1.5% or so. I'm concerned with racking up a 4% or better loss if I stay in and we tumble to 1961 or thereabouts to complete the Wave C down. If we continue south from 2046 we could have a freefall with panicked sellers, etc. My instincts are telling me that Monday is going to be ugly. I'd love to be convinced otherwise but all week I've lasted on hope and I've paid the price.

FS
 
FogSailing said:
If we get a positive day tomorrow, I think I may have to sell for the loss and move to G. If the market rebounds, I made a mistake. If it doesn't, my loss is contained to about 1.5% or so. I'm concerned with racking up a 4% or better loss if I stay in and we tumble to 1961 or thereabouts to complete the Wave C down. If we continue south from 2046 we could have a freefall with panicked sellers, etc. My instincts are telling me that Monday is going to be ugly. I'd love to be convinced otherwise but all week I've lasted on hope and I've paid the price.

FS
Click to expand...

Ugly will be an understatement. I may very well be joining you as this BS has all but wiped out my gains for the year since February.

Frank
 
Tsunami said:
If you look at the current lunar performance page you can figure out when the next period will start within a day, and ebikerz has it right https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/performance/ and a red period starts Saturday. But after an amazing streak this year the last two lunar periods haven't worked at all. At this point I'm banking on the coming red period making it three straight periods not working.

The S&P parked right at support at 2046. This area better hold, otherwise it looks like the Grinch came early this year and I'll have to plot an exit strategy....which usually consists of panicking and selling at a bottom.

Still falling a bit after hours. I'll just hold my breath until it goes up. :sick:
Click to expand...

I started tracking those red and green periods applying instead the C and S Funds. If I have my numbers right this green period has yielded a -1.44% loss in the C Fund and a -1.21% loss in the S Fund. Let's hope this upcoming lunar red period which begins Saturday gets us back into positive territory.

It is tough watching the value of your TSP go down, down, down, but at the end of the day, you still have the same number of shares as you started with. That is until you sell and lock in the loss. Time to deploy the sticky pants and have plenty of monkey butt powder on hand. :D
 
The day may have forced my hand anyway. It looks like another negative day given the news. I hope we hold above 2019. If we do, then Monday should still bounce up to the 2060 area. I'll have to place close attention to the news because Tuesday either the Red Lunar period works for us and we see strength from the season come into play, or we complete Wave C down.

FS
 
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