Tsunami's Account Talk

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This EW pattern would allow for a mild wave 4 over the next few weeks and then a seasonal rally to a final top in December. That would also let the S&P get up to that 2135 double top target, so I like this possibility...

https://alphahorn.wordpress.com/2015/10/27/right-on-track/

I'm thinking maybe wave 4 drops down to the 2040 area per Ciovacco's weekend video charts, so that will be my target for my final jump into stocks this year.
 
Whipsaw said:
I've got 20% left to deploy, might be a good time for that. Thanks!
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Whipsaw and Tsunami, FWIW, due consideration should be given to a report on Bloomberg right after the close today. The panelists showed a chart in order to analyze the underlysing causes of this rally. Significantly, as shown in the chart, they attributed the rally to short covering. The chart showed a big drop in short-covering through today. so, please note this, because this could be an early warning (or not) but I cannot measure the potential downside percentage of any drop. However, the market seems overextended to the upside in need of a breather; and while any drop could be shallow, I wanted to share this with you - since you are expecting to deploy additional funds.
 
Thanks Airlift for your information. I still think we're going to see a pullback to 2040-2020 range but my timing is always a bit off... and it appears it not be until later in the week or next week. The market has it's own timetable. The S Fund peaked at 1062.52 today which means we broke through the 100 day EMA and resistance at 1062 before pulling back slightly.Tomorrow we should see if the market has the strength to break through on the 100 EMA on course for new highs or if resistance holds and we begin to pullback. The day ended with a slight uptick so maybe there is momentum going into tomorrow. Let's see what the rest of the world does in the next 16 hours. Personally, I'd love to see us have a soaring day tomorrow but with all this good feeling comes a bit of angst. :D:D:D

FS
 
FogSailing said:
Thanks Airlift for your information. I still think we're going to see a pullback to 2040-2020 range but my timing is always a bit off... and it appears it not be until later in the week or next week. The market has it's own timetable. The S Fund peaked at 1062.52 today which means we broke through the 100 day EMA and resistance at 1062 before pulling back slightly.Tomorrow we should see if the market has the strength to break through on the 100 EMA on course for new highs or if resistance holds and we begin to pullback. The day ended with a slight uptick so maybe there is momentum going into tomorrow. Let's see what the rest of the world does in the next 16 hours. Personally, I'd love to see us have a soaring day tomorrow but with all this good feeling comes a bit of angst. :D:D:D

FS
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FogSailing,

Excuse me for not including your name in my post. Your current post is excellent -- very specific and illustrative. Thank you. Rest assured that I have my own share of angst, even though we kow it comes with the territory. I'll be watching for the performance tomorrow, and I hope you maintain the flow of information going. I am sure that others are also waiting for your posts, a sense of guidance and opinions. This is a tricky market. Tia.
 
Hi Airlift. Thank you for your info. I am getting to be bit cynical of all news. I was kidding around a few days ago and called it "market roulette". One of two news stories out of the plethora of media make the market that day or at least that's how it is sold. It's like going to the roulette wheel. Pick your story, place your bet. You never know. Thanks for your thoughtful and kind words.

FS
 
Addendum,

FogSailing,
are you using DWCPF for the S Fund? The 6 month daily chart shows that the previous close was 1056.00. It gapped down to 1053.89 at the open. The 100 day EMA ended at 1052.80, but DWCPF broke to the upside to intraday 1062.57. However, DWCPF closed decidedly higher than the 100 EMA, at 1058.45 Perhaps the price confirmation should be 1 or 2 days above the 100 EMA COB? What do you think?
 
Being on travel this week, I'm having an easy time ignoring all the news and crash predictions, which I think is a good thing for now. I'm getting more confident that the S&P will now just crawl along the upper keltner band as it likes to do once it makes contact with it...and it just got there today like a magnet (3rd chart: // www.TTheory.com Public Chart List // - Paula M Burke - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com ) That might continue until it reaches about 2200 in mid-December. Then that should be it for this short-covering rally, then "they" can nestle it down to a year-end close at 2135 per Craig Johnson's prediction.

A small sideways wave 4 triangle will interrupt the climb soon, but with only one more IFT I won't worry about it since by the end of the month the market ought to be higher than it is now. That's my 2 cents anyway.
 
Hi Airlift. Yes, I was using DWCPF, and should have been more specific. I am hopeful that is the way it turns out given what I perceive as momentum. Fingers crossed.:D

FS
 
FogSailing said:
Hi Airlift. Yes, I was using DWCPF, and should have been more specific. I am hopeful that is the way it turns out given what I perceive as momentum. Fingers crossed.:D

FS
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FogSailing, I'm with you. The angst is here, knowing that the market is overextended and could surprise us to the downside at any moment that the Big Boyz decide to make a profit. Seasonality is good, liquidity is good, so we trust that any drop might be shallow. Yes, fingers crossed.
 
TS: My apologies for hijacking your thread BUT want to finish discussion with Airlift...

Airlift: This is a site that Tom recommended some time ago and that I use daily. Just wanted you to be aware of where my information comes from most of the time..

An interesting comment I saw last evening on another Forum: Excellent…we continue to defy gravity and climb the wall of worry..the bull just keeps on giving against disbelievers.

http://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/^GS...finance.yahoo.com/quotes/^GSPC,^DWCPF,EFA,AGG

There..Done..Thanks TS.:D

FS
 
Last edited:
FogSailing said:
TS: My apologies for hijacking your thread BUT want to finish discussion with Airlift...

Airlift: This is a site that Tom recommended some time ago and that I use daily. Just wanted you to be aware of where my information comes from most of the time..

An interesting comment I saw last evening on another Forum: Excellent…we continue to defy gravity and climb the wall of worry..the bull just keeps on giving against disbelievers.

http://finance.yahoo.com/quotes/^GS...finance.yahoo.com/quotes/^GSPC,^DWCPF,EFA,AGG

There..Done..Thanks TS.:D

FS
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FogSailing, this is very useful. Thank you!
 
Tsunami said:
Being on travel this week, I'm having an easy time ignoring all the news and crash predictions, which I think is a good thing for now. I'm getting more confident that the S&P will now just crawl along the upper keltner band as it likes to do once it makes contact with it...and it just got there today like a magnet (3rd chart: // www.TTheory.com Public Chart List // - Paula M Burke - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com ) That might continue until it reaches about 2200 in mid-December. Then that should be it for this short-covering rally, then "they" can nestle it down to a year-end close at 2135 per Craig Johnson's prediction.

A small sideways wave 4 triangle will interrupt the climb soon, but with only one more IFT I won't worry about it since by the end of the month the market ought to be higher than it is now. That's my 2 cents anyway.
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Following in your footsteps TS, except I decided to go 40% C Fund and 60% S Fund with my first IFT for Nov this morning.
 
ravensfan said:
Following in your footsteps TS, except I decided to go 40% C Fund and 60% S Fund with my first IFT for Nov this morning.
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Hmm, well at least I have someone to go down in flames with me LOL. I'm nervous about my move and need to see a rebound tomorrow to quiet my concerns.
 
Tsunami said:
Hmm, well at least I have someone to go down in flames with me LOL. I'm nervous about my move and need to see a rebound tomorrow to quiet my concerns.
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As you stated previously; "A small sideways wave 4 triangle will interrupt the climb soon, but with only one more IFT I won't worry about it since by the end of the month the market ought to be higher than it is now. That's my 2 cents anyway."

With that said, I'm not worried...:D
 
Tsunami said:
I don't know of any Wall Street guy that's been more accurate the last few years with year-end predictions that Craig Johnson, and he's sticking to 2135 for this year and has a preliminary target of 2350 for 2016.

Craig Johnson: Secular Bull Market Is Alive and Well; The End Is Not Nigh | FS Staff | FINANCIAL SENSE
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From the linked article on Craig Johnson: ""Our official year-end price objective for the S&P 500 is 2135. I would say that the number we had previously, 2350, is a number that could be achieved perhaps next year. "

Does that mean to say he originally predicted the year 2015 would close at 2350 vice his current forecast of 2135?
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
Ok yall have me a bit spooked...posts..955and 959...Norman Trader. Eeeek:eek:
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Don't be too concerned DBA. I still think that will be the trend BUT as always my timing has a lot to be desired. What makes logical sense and what makes market sense are TWO ENTIRELY different things. I think by Friday we'll know better how to play this thing. It looks to me like a lot of people are buying into the market right now for the holiday benefit. Maybe that is puffing the market up. If so, it could last a bit before the balloon deflates. That's just my speculation because even though the news has been reasonably good, some other ingredient seems to be keeping the market not just buoyant but growing. Good luck to you in your investing.

FS
 
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