Tsunami, your charts are very illustrative and helpful. I hope we get a chance to buy lower, and then ride a good upside. Thanks.
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Tsunami's Account Talk
- Thread starter Tsunami
- Start date
Tsunami, your charts are very illustrative and helpful. I hope we get a chance to buy lower, and then ride a good upside. Thanks.
FAAM
Active member
DITTO Tsunami. I'm generally conservative w/ TSP these days & Totally-G now. Thx for your posts & links (incl. the MOAA link; not been a member since I resigned 23-yrs ago after 9+yrs Active Duty, no Retirement). ALSO: YIPPEE for your "GO COUGS" posts after the great win (we "insert phrase that shall not be uttered"-ed it, but they "Ducked-it" worse & we even had to overcome the 8xZebras on the UO side). Hope that up-wave continues tomorrow vs-Beavs.
Tsunami
Well-known member
Thanks Airlift and FAAM, I'm just trying to contribute things I pick up on other blogs that could be of interest. FAAM I see you're an engineer (me too, Chem Eng) and a 10-year Army Vet, my stepson is on the verge of joining the Army, and my wife is a 10-year Navy vet....and yes, Go Cougs! Tomorrow the flags will be waving proud on ESPN's Game Day. One of my brother's is going to the Beavers game, sounds like it will be a sellout and good weather, lots of fun and my gut says they will finally minimize the mistakes and slap the Beavs around pretty good.
OK, a couple more charts...first is a simple bond "T" that shows rates last bottomed way back in 1946, then peaked in 1981. That's 35 years up for rates, and using the T concept there should be a corresponding 35 years down. That happens to be next year, 2016, which I find interesting since a low in rates (and multi-decade peak for bonds) could definitely align with the bottom of this bear market in stocks...assuming we're in a bear market...I think we'll have that answer by mid-November.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/kakt6ku7f1favng/Bond T Sept 2015.jpg?dl=0
Whether you're bullish or bearish on stocks the odds are very high that next week we'll get a pullback since we've just completed a pretty 5-waves up pattern since the late September bottom. Just a mild 38% pullback would be near 4%, and I'm hoping it drags out to the end of the month since I can't get in until 11/1. But then it's decision time. Does the market take off in a larger wave 3 up into December?...or do we just get a small rally then a bigger decline? The bearish view is PUGs view and he's the best EW guy I know of...
https://twitter.com/pugstockmarket (ah, balloons...cool, today is his 49th birthday)
This chart sorta looks like that point where Wile E. Coyote is hanging out in mid air, about to fall to earth:
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
A great update by McClellan today. He's still bearish and explains why...
McClellan Oscillator Interpretation - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial
I'll be looking for that oscillator to drop sharply and go below zero in the next few weeks.
Last, for any 3 peaks and a domed house fans out there, this one was drawn back in July. His points 26 and 27 happened perfectly, just need to shift them over a bit to match. What comes next is not pretty.
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
OK, a couple more charts...first is a simple bond "T" that shows rates last bottomed way back in 1946, then peaked in 1981. That's 35 years up for rates, and using the T concept there should be a corresponding 35 years down. That happens to be next year, 2016, which I find interesting since a low in rates (and multi-decade peak for bonds) could definitely align with the bottom of this bear market in stocks...assuming we're in a bear market...I think we'll have that answer by mid-November.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/kakt6ku7f1favng/Bond T Sept 2015.jpg?dl=0
Whether you're bullish or bearish on stocks the odds are very high that next week we'll get a pullback since we've just completed a pretty 5-waves up pattern since the late September bottom. Just a mild 38% pullback would be near 4%, and I'm hoping it drags out to the end of the month since I can't get in until 11/1. But then it's decision time. Does the market take off in a larger wave 3 up into December?...or do we just get a small rally then a bigger decline? The bearish view is PUGs view and he's the best EW guy I know of...
https://twitter.com/pugstockmarket (ah, balloons...cool, today is his 49th birthday)
This chart sorta looks like that point where Wile E. Coyote is hanging out in mid air, about to fall to earth:
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
A great update by McClellan today. He's still bearish and explains why...
McClellan Oscillator Interpretation - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial
I'll be looking for that oscillator to drop sharply and go below zero in the next few weeks.
Last, for any 3 peaks and a domed house fans out there, this one was drawn back in July. His points 26 and 27 happened perfectly, just need to shift them over a bit to match. What comes next is not pretty.
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
Tsunami
Well-known member
Robin Griffiths expects the current rally will fade into a late October low, then a strong seasonal rally (35-minute mark):
http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/robin-griffiths/strong-seasonal-rally-ahead
That fits perfectly with the lunar cycle, which per this chart would expect a 3-day decline into Wednesday, then a 2-day rally to Fridaythe 23[SUP]rd[/SUP], then a 4-day decline to that late October low on 10/29:
https://lunatictrader.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/ltwaveoctober2015.png
Once again the lunar system produced a win over the just completed green period, a BIG win, and looking back over the last six years when the Nasdaq jumped 200+ points in a green period it was usually followed by only a mildly down red period or even a gain over the ensuing red period.
https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/performance/
I’m starting to lean toward a 50-50 chance that the coming decline will just be a 30-50% wave 2 down, then comes a strong seasonal rally through November and into mid-December, maybe to a double top near 2135 as the rally from late September completes. The gurus can get their predicted year-end levels around 2100, then the bear market can resume after Christmas and back to the F fund I go as interest rates drop to zero and beyond by October 2016. QE4 will consist of negative rates I guess, wow, then it's off to the races again until that runs out of steam after 18 months or so...spring of 2018ish. For QE5 in 2019 or 2020 Trump will send us all a check for his re-election bribe. Guess I have it all figured out LOL. I'm gonna be rich. :laugh:
Craig Johnson has been amazingly accurate the last few years and he's saying 2135 at year-end, perfect double top:
Ahead of the Fed: Can the S&P 500 Hit New Highs in 2015? - Stocks to Watch - Barrons.com
Current plan for me: Go from F to G on 10/29, then 100% stocks on 11/1, hoping that half of the next rally isn't already over by 11/1.
Kirk Herbstreit just predicted that the pirate Mike Leach will lead the Cougs over the Beavs today, and a future Game Day show in Pullman is “on the radar”, maybe the Stanford game. Go Cougs!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DaDJ8_rVHDk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eykkSTEcVdg
http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/robin-griffiths/strong-seasonal-rally-ahead
That fits perfectly with the lunar cycle, which per this chart would expect a 3-day decline into Wednesday, then a 2-day rally to Fridaythe 23[SUP]rd[/SUP], then a 4-day decline to that late October low on 10/29:
https://lunatictrader.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/ltwaveoctober2015.png
Once again the lunar system produced a win over the just completed green period, a BIG win, and looking back over the last six years when the Nasdaq jumped 200+ points in a green period it was usually followed by only a mildly down red period or even a gain over the ensuing red period.
https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/performance/
I’m starting to lean toward a 50-50 chance that the coming decline will just be a 30-50% wave 2 down, then comes a strong seasonal rally through November and into mid-December, maybe to a double top near 2135 as the rally from late September completes. The gurus can get their predicted year-end levels around 2100, then the bear market can resume after Christmas and back to the F fund I go as interest rates drop to zero and beyond by October 2016. QE4 will consist of negative rates I guess, wow, then it's off to the races again until that runs out of steam after 18 months or so...spring of 2018ish. For QE5 in 2019 or 2020 Trump will send us all a check for his re-election bribe. Guess I have it all figured out LOL. I'm gonna be rich. :laugh:
Craig Johnson has been amazingly accurate the last few years and he's saying 2135 at year-end, perfect double top:
Ahead of the Fed: Can the S&P 500 Hit New Highs in 2015? - Stocks to Watch - Barrons.com
Current plan for me: Go from F to G on 10/29, then 100% stocks on 11/1, hoping that half of the next rally isn't already over by 11/1.
Kirk Herbstreit just predicted that the pirate Mike Leach will lead the Cougs over the Beavs today, and a future Game Day show in Pullman is “on the radar”, maybe the Stanford game. Go Cougs!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DaDJ8_rVHDk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eykkSTEcVdg
Last edited:
ravensfan
Well-known member
Thanks for all the research and info Tsunami. It's all very interesting and useful as I plan my strategy to dig out of this negative hole I've created in 2015.
As for the recent Lunar Green period, if my calculations are correct, the C Fund gained 7.31% and the S Fund gained 6.80%. Those are some fantastic numbers. Just wish I would have had enough confidence to invest 100% and stay in for the duration. But hey, I'm happy with the gain I made.
Going forward, I am currently in the G Fund with one IFT left for October. I though about getting into the F Fund since we are now in the Lunar Red Period, but AGG is at the upper bollenger band so I won't be doing that. On Friday, I'll be leaving for a trip and will be out of pocket with no access to a computer until 2 November. With that said, I'm hoping for a big drop this week and a dead cat bounce, but if it doesn't happen, I'm ok with riding it out in the G Fund.
Of course, I do not expect Lunatics system to get these kind of results all the time, (as he says, he's only 60% confident in it) but to date, it has been interesting.
Take care my friend and keep up the great posts.
As for the recent Lunar Green period, if my calculations are correct, the C Fund gained 7.31% and the S Fund gained 6.80%. Those are some fantastic numbers. Just wish I would have had enough confidence to invest 100% and stay in for the duration. But hey, I'm happy with the gain I made.
Going forward, I am currently in the G Fund with one IFT left for October. I though about getting into the F Fund since we are now in the Lunar Red Period, but AGG is at the upper bollenger band so I won't be doing that. On Friday, I'll be leaving for a trip and will be out of pocket with no access to a computer until 2 November. With that said, I'm hoping for a big drop this week and a dead cat bounce, but if it doesn't happen, I'm ok with riding it out in the G Fund.
Of course, I do not expect Lunatics system to get these kind of results all the time, (as he says, he's only 60% confident in it) but to date, it has been interesting.
Take care my friend and keep up the great posts.
Tsunami
Well-known member
RF - Yep, that lunatic system has been ridiculously good this year. I recently worked on a new modification to my strategy, and with that tweak the average return from 2004 through 10/16/15 is a ridiculous 16.8%! And this year, through 10/16/15...it's over 26%!!...that would be #1 in the tracker!!! With my modified system you simply use the S&P500 seasonal chart for the last 30 years which shows an average peak in early June, and an average low in late October, this one: S&P 500 :: SeasonalCharts.de ....and in those summer/fall months you go with the strict lunar system, and in the other months you stay in stocks 100% the entire time, but make just a few switches due to seasonal tendencies of the three stock funds (e.g., in late November go from C to S, then back to C in early March per the Russell 2000 seasonality here: Equity Clock » Seasonality then in April I use the I fund since it's seasonally strong in April for whatever reason, then go back to C on 5/1)....I back-tested that strategy all the way back to 2004 and got those results above (over 16.8%/year). Once I'm comfortable we're through this bear market my plan is to use this system I've developed. It's so easy and "elegant", and with the lunatic software I can even put all the future IFT dates on a spreadsheet going out to the year 2100 for my wife and offspring to follow if they choose to. You could also use this system with ETFs outside of the TSP, like SPY, VXF, EFA and AGG, but wouldn't do quite as well due to trading fees.
One new chart for today besides the one I posted on DBA's thread. This one appears better at picking bottoms than tops since after the indicator rolls over at peaks the market can drift higher for a few days, even weeks. It looks like the October rally is running out of steam right here to me though, and that matches the lunar red phase pull on stocks that starts today.
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
Oh, and this is off topic but important news. Depressing news about COLA's for retirees. I actually emailed Mike Causey way back in March that I thought this is how it would work if we ended up with deflation this year. He replied that he thought I was wrong but would check into it...turns out I was right, not that I'm happy about it...
Retirees in the hole, COLA-wise - FederalNewsRadio.com
One new chart for today besides the one I posted on DBA's thread. This one appears better at picking bottoms than tops since after the indicator rolls over at peaks the market can drift higher for a few days, even weeks. It looks like the October rally is running out of steam right here to me though, and that matches the lunar red phase pull on stocks that starts today.
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
Oh, and this is off topic but important news. Depressing news about COLA's for retirees. I actually emailed Mike Causey way back in March that I thought this is how it would work if we ended up with deflation this year. He replied that he thought I was wrong but would check into it...turns out I was right, not that I'm happy about it...
Retirees in the hole, COLA-wise - FederalNewsRadio.com
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FogSailing
Well-known member
TS: Like the NEW "Cougar" moniker...
Maybe jpcavin should adopt that moniker!!!
FS
Maybe jpcavin should adopt that moniker!!!
FS
Tsunami
Well-known member
Thanks, it's a reference to Mike Leach and his "pirate" and "Swing the Sword" stories. Here's a sample from his book:
Mike Leach's 'Swing Your Sword': A Resource For The Curious Fan - CougCenter
The Cougs sure swung the sword a bit against Oregon State Saturday...man, six TD passes in the first half alone?! Now there's even chatter that ESPN Game Day might come to Pullman on Halloween for the Stanford game if they can first manage to upset Arizona in the Tucson heat this week.
Looks like "they" are determined to fill the August 20th gap on the S&P 500 at 2035.73....43 minutes left to get 'er done.
jpcavin
Well-known member
That looks like a mean cougar. I'm a pussycat.
FogSailing
Well-known member
TS: Best of luck to the Cougs.
JPC: I don't think it looks like a mean Cougar...just a flag waving Cougar with attitude.
I think Arizona is going to be a tough opponent though...but the temps are milder right now...70's and 80's so that may benefit WSU.
Was surprised to see the S&P finish in the plus column today but expect to see the slide down real soon...maybe tomorrow. I view it as sucker money. They're making it very enticing to want to be in but the technicals say we're headed south.
FS
JPC: I don't think it looks like a mean Cougar...just a flag waving Cougar with attitude.
I think Arizona is going to be a tough opponent though...but the temps are milder right now...70's and 80's so that may benefit WSU.
Was surprised to see the S&P finish in the plus column today but expect to see the slide down real soon...maybe tomorrow. I view it as sucker money. They're making it very enticing to want to be in but the technicals say we're headed south.
FS
jpcavin
Well-known member
Tsunami
Well-known member
Looks to me like this morning's pop completed a perfect conclusion to the October rally, got the gap fill at 2035 and trend lines are starting to break.
Now it's time to see how much fear can come back into the market. The VIX is showing two short-term wedges that are ready to break out to the upside...
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
Danny warns that it can't last forever, but his lunatic system has been ridiculously good this year. The new red phase lasts until 10/30, right after the next Fed meeting...
https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2015/10/19/ridiculous-performance/
Lastly, Tesla really getting beat up today, down over 10%. If it breaks $180 there's an H&S pattern you can see here (neckline at $180ish) that would target a low down around $70 next year. Finally a reasonable price to buy TSLA could be coming in 2016. I've always kicked myself for not buying TSLA after it dipped below $20 right after the IPO, I'd planned to buy an even 100 share lot at $19.90 but didn't pull the trigger. Argh...
TSLA - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
Now it's time to see how much fear can come back into the market. The VIX is showing two short-term wedges that are ready to break out to the upside...
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
Danny warns that it can't last forever, but his lunatic system has been ridiculously good this year. The new red phase lasts until 10/30, right after the next Fed meeting...
https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2015/10/19/ridiculous-performance/
Lastly, Tesla really getting beat up today, down over 10%. If it breaks $180 there's an H&S pattern you can see here (neckline at $180ish) that would target a low down around $70 next year. Finally a reasonable price to buy TSLA could be coming in 2016. I've always kicked myself for not buying TSLA after it dipped below $20 right after the IPO, I'd planned to buy an even 100 share lot at $19.90 but didn't pull the trigger. Argh...
TSLA - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
Tsunami
Well-known member
Don't worry, just check my tracker status for proof I will be wrong. :laugh: The pullback from the 2040 resistance area was very weak, overlapping...it looks corrective....but the reaction to earnings news this evening and in the morning will decide the direction for tomorrow. I'm heading out on a work trip right now and won't even be watching the markets for the next couple of days...probably a good thing since I established a short position today and don't want to be panicked out of it if the market keeps dripping higher tomorrow.
Tsunami
Well-known member
Well, this has proved to be the first lunar red phase this year that hasn't worked, but on a similar topic here's some more ghoulish stuff...we have a super moon this week...
Supermoon Oct. 26-27, 2015: Don't miss the last mega-moon of the year | AL.com
...and something I dug up elsewhere...
"Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses and market crashes were somehow connected. Without discussing our own opinion on the potential connection between astronomical configurations and market timing, let’s simply relate to you the basic findings discussed by Puetz. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000.”
“. . .Puetz) used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower –waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."
So, according to Mr. Putz, er, Puetz...the market should start crashing right about when the Fed makes their announcement. Hmm, a surprise rate hike? What's a little unnerving to me is that there's a decent chance that the rally from the August low could indeed be capped off with just one more spike higher in the next day or two. So that lines up perfectly.
Supermoon Oct. 26-27, 2015: Don't miss the last mega-moon of the year | AL.com
...and something I dug up elsewhere...
"Puetz attempted to discover if eclipses and market crashes were somehow connected. Without discussing our own opinion on the potential connection between astronomical configurations and market timing, let’s simply relate to you the basic findings discussed by Puetz. He emphasized that he is not contending that full moons close to solar eclipses cause market crashes. But he does conclude that a full moon in general and a lunar (eclipse) full moon close to solar eclipses, in particular, seem to be the triggering device that allows for the rapid transformation of investor psychology from manic greed to paranoia. He asks what the odds are that eight of the greatest market crashes in history would accidentally fall within a time period of six days before to three days after a full moon that occurred within six weeks of a solar eclipse? His answer is that for all eight crashes to accidentally fall within the required intervals would be .23 raised to the eighth power less than one chance in 127,000.”
“. . .Puetz) used eight previous crashes in various markets from the Holland Tulip Mania in 1637 through the Tokyo crash in 1990. He noted that market crashes tend to be lumped near the full moons that are also lunar eclipses. In fact, he states, the greatest number of crashes start after the first full moon after a solar eclipse when that full moon is also a lunar eclipse . . Once the panic starts, Puetz notes, it generally lasts from two to four weeks. The tendency has been for the markets to peak a few days ahead of the full moon, move flat to slightly lower –waiting for the full moon to pass. Then on the day of the full moon or slightly after, the brunt of the crash hits the marketplace."
So, according to Mr. Putz, er, Puetz...the market should start crashing right about when the Fed makes their announcement. Hmm, a surprise rate hike? What's a little unnerving to me is that there's a decent chance that the rally from the August low could indeed be capped off with just one more spike higher in the next day or two. So that lines up perfectly.
FogSailing
Well-known member
That's totally crazy...But I like it...
TS: Do you have the "Dictionary of Arcane Market Lore" hidden around your place somewhere?
FS
TS: Do you have the "Dictionary of Arcane Market Lore" hidden around your place somewhere?
FS
Tsunami
Well-known member
That's totally crazy...But I like it...
TS: Do you have the "Dictionary of Arcane Market Lore" hidden around your place somewhere?
FS
LOL, sort of, between my laptop and desktop...and my work computer...I must have about a thousand investment-related bookmarks going back 15 years or so.
And hey, did ya notice my Cougs won another big one this past weekend?! This time at Arizona, and another 500+ yards for Luke Falk. WSU alumni/students were on pins and needles this morning, hoping ESPN College Gameday would finally come to Pullman (for the Stanford game this week), it came down to either Pullman or Temple/Notre Dame, and they chose the latter. Argh. At least the Stanford game has been moved to ESPN, but no Gameday to go with it....Falk is on pace to break a lot of passing records this year...shattering records of guys like Drew Bledsoe and Ryan Leaf. WSU/New Orleans Saints legend Steve Gleason is liking it...
FogSailing
Well-known member
I did TS. Totally cool. You have to give it to the Cougs. I almost posted something about it when I saw the score. Unbelievable. Go WSU!!
FS
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FS
Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk
Tsunami
Well-known member
This is looking an awful lot like the mid-September peak. Transports and small caps are already leading the way, while big tech is leading the QQQ's to one last hurrah, maybe even to a new high tomorrow on a Fed-induced spurt that will fail.
FS - I'm hopeful but not expecting WSU to beat Stanford...their 13 point spread is well-deserved, but I think we can put up more of a fight than the Huskies did last week. We'll see. Go Cougs! I'm kinda hoping that they finish in the #7 spot so my wife and I can watch them in the Cactus Bowl in Phoenix on 1/2/16, then go to that Seahawk/Arizona game the next day. That would be a great start to 2016, which is also the year I become eligible to retire!
FS - I'm hopeful but not expecting WSU to beat Stanford...their 13 point spread is well-deserved, but I think we can put up more of a fight than the Huskies did last week. We'll see. Go Cougs! I'm kinda hoping that they finish in the #7 spot so my wife and I can watch them in the Cactus Bowl in Phoenix on 1/2/16, then go to that Seahawk/Arizona game the next day. That would be a great start to 2016, which is also the year I become eligible to retire!
FogSailing
Well-known member
TS: You're proving that you have better than average planning skills...Congrats on 2016 being your year to be retirement eligible. That is one great feeling. We'll be in Hawaii in January but I hope you have a great time. Phoenix is a great place to be January. That game is a tough one for me. The Hawks are my team, but I really like the Cards as well. Tough to really like 2 teams.
All the best.
FS
All the best.
FS
