Tsunami's Account Talk

[FogSailing]

That looks like either a bottom or a ledge on a steep steep cliff heading to a bottom..reminds of the kind of void that Wiley Coyote used to fall into

Thanks for sharing TS. Very interesting chart.

FS

 

[Tsunami]

Yep, investing in a bear market can feel a lot like this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_d8ROhH3_vs

I'm looking for wave C up of the current rally to end tomorrow, maybe up around 1950 again. Then there would be a pair of H&S patterns that would take the S&P down to 1720 first, then the 1500s...sometime between November and next Spring, there's no telling how long it would take at this point. There's always many options in EW though, so I'm hoping for a bottom next week in the mid to low 1800s, then a nice juicy rally that lasts to year's end. That would fit McClellan's view of an April bottom much better.

 

[Tsunami]

Well, so much for that final rally to 1940-50. The recession that the market sniffed out in August is now showing up in the economic numbers. Things could get really ugly this month.

LOL, right now there's some poor guy on CNBC, Furman, standing in front of the White House trying to put a good face on the unemployment report.

Short term target of 1780? Channels and Patterns I could see that happening by 10/16 if my 1820-50 target range is broken.

Go Cougs, Beat Cal!! (fat chance, but I can always hope)

 

[Tsunami]

Woulda coulda shoulda done it on 10/1, but I've submitted my IFT for Monday. For October the C fund is historically the strongest, but in this case I’m going 50% S and 50% I since they are so much moreoversold than the C fund and have some catching up to do, as do I….which alsomeans if things turn south I could get hurt more. No risk no reward LOL. Not sure if I’ll stay in clear until the endof this lunar cycle on 10/14 though.

At some point I think I'll avoid the F fund completely in my system...

Jim Puplava

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyKIvnied-o

 

[Tsunami]

Most of the blogs look bearish this weekend, so I'm bullish...but I switched my IFT to 100% C instead of 50/50 S&I. Going with my system and not my gut, and am hoping for the S&P to get to 2035 by 10/16.

 

[Tsunami]

Probably a bad idea, but this rally is just too much and needs to cool off for a day or two. That fits the latest "LT wave" chart by the lunatic guy (a low on 10/7),
https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2015/10/05/lt-wave-for-october-2/ (note his chart shows a peak on 10/4, yesterday, a Sunday, so I think that energy is just carrying over into today)
so I cancelled my IFT entirely and will cross all my fingers and toes for a pullback and get in tomorrow or Wednesday, for what I believe will be a further rally up into the 2020-2050 range by 10/15.

All I ask for is about 1% this month to get ahead of the darn G and F fund crowd LOL.

 

[ravensfan]

Probably a bad idea, but this rally is just too much and needs to cool off for a day or two. That fits the latest "LT wave" chart by the lunatic guy (a low on 10/7),
https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2015/10/05/lt-wave-for-october-2/ (note his chart shows a peak on 10/4, yesterday, a Sunday, so I think that energy is just carrying over into today)
so I cancelled my IFT entirely and will cross all my fingers and toes for a pullback and get in tomorrow or Wednesday, for what I believe will be a further rally up into the 2020-2050 range by 10/15.

All I ask for is about 1% this month to get ahead of the darn G and F fund crowd LOL.

Hmm. Sounds like 10/7 will be an opportunity to pad my 40% C Fund investment if Mr. Moon is correct. Then out NLT 10/14. I was set up the same way in August, but listened to all the doom and gloom on TV and bailed to the G Fund. Not this time though. Gonna stick to the plan this time...

 

[ravensfan]

https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2015/10/05/lt-wave-for-october-2/ (note his chart shows a peak on 10/4, yesterday, a Sunday, so I think that energy is just carrying over into today)
so I cancelled my IFT entirely and will cross all my fingers and toes for a pullback and get in tomorrow or Wednesday, for what I believe will be a further rally up into the 2020-2050 range by 10/15.

Just took another look at that chart. It may be a better move to exit tomorrow, the 6th and then buy back in 100% C Fund on Wednesday and hold that position until the 14th exiting to the G Fund for the remainder of October...Your thoughts?

 

[Tsunami]

Just took another look at that chart. It may be a better move to exit tomorrow, the 6th and then buy back in 100% C Fund on Wednesday and hold that position until the 14th exiting to the G Fund for the remainder of October...Your thoughts?

Can't really say, I'm guessing Wednesday to get in on a pullback, but I can also count the waves in this rally as just being barely half over and it could just keep going all week, not letting those on the sidelines like me get in. Like Danny at Lunatictrader said that chart is experimental, but it's been pretty accurate so far. Part of my dilemma is I wanted to get in on 9/30 and I would have (and would have captured this huge rally) but had no IFT's left for September. Now I'm set up with the same dilemma for October. If I get in (Wednesday?), then back out next week, I won't be able to get back in at the end of October per the system and could miss another big up day on 11/2. Argh. Maybe what I need to do is just assume/hope we're not in a bear market after all and go 100% C fund, then move to the S fund around 11/23/15 per my seasonal strategy. That's the strategy I plan to follow forever except in bear markets, which I think(???) we're in one now. Bear market rallies can be vicious though, sucking everyone in, then collapsing... but it's starting to not feel like that and maybe the infamous "they" on Wall Street are taking this thing higher into the new year? Maybe we'll never ever get a bear market again LOL.

Here's something else I'm watching. The Zweig Breadth Indicator has a real shot at triggering. Today is only day 4 of the 10-day count since on the close-up chart below the indicator was still below the 0.40 threshold on 10/29. If it gets above 0.615 by the 10th day, next Monday 10/12 (there is trading on Columbus Day), it would trigger. It's a rare event and if it happens I'll suddenly become a believer that we've just completed a wave 4 correction (e.g., Tony Caldero's EW count) and we're now blasting off to record highs. The whole commodity and energy sectors are so oversold I could see that happening...which reminds me, I wanted to buy some KMI in my Roth IRA....

A rally to new highs just doesn't fit with so many other gurus I've been following, but I always keep an open mind. It never pays to stay biased one way or the other. The ZBT charts....

Markets Overview - J French - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com

$NYADV:$NYTOT - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

 

[ravensfan]

Certainly is a dilemma and procrastinating will sometimes pay off and other times, not so much. I read once that investing is a lot like wanting to get up stream. It does not matter that you wade into the water at the exact moment the tide changes as long as the current is going in the direction you want to go. It's a simple philosophy and yes, you may miss a day or two of a rally or you may lose a little at the other end, but we make our decisions and live with them.

So tomorrow if the markets are up, I will submit my first IFT for October and move to the G Fund. I'll then sit and wait for that pullback. (FYI, Mr John Ross is also saying a pullback could happen sometime in early to mid October) If it comes before October 14th I will get back in. If not, I will be happy with the gains I have made this month and wait for the next green period.

Good luck with whatever you decide to do.

 

[Tsunami]

Certainly is a dilemma and procrastinating will sometimes pay off and other times, not so much. I read once that investing is a lot like wanting to get up stream. It does not matter that you wade into the water at the exact moment the tide changes as long as the current is going in the direction you want to go. It's a simple philosophy and yes, you may miss a day or two of a rally or you may lose a little at the other end, but we make our decisions and live with them.

So tomorrow if the markets are up, I will submit my first IFT for October and move to the G Fund. I'll then sit and wait for that pullback. (FYI, Mr John Ross is also saying a pullback could happen sometime in early to mid October) If it comes before October 14th I will get back in. If not, I will be happy with the gains I have made this month and wait for the next green period.

Good luck with whatever you decide to do.

When I saw the futures down last night I went ahead and put in my IFT, taking advantage of the tide. The plan is to get right back out on Friday (I'd prefer Monday, but the TSP will be closed) and will be on the sidelines again for the rest of the month.

Boy did the Seahawks pull a rabbit out of their hat again last night. They need an offensive line that can block bad!

 

[Tsunami]

Here's something else I'm watching. The Zweig Breadth Indicator has a real shot at triggering. Today is only day 4 of the 10-day count since on the close-up chart below the indicator was still below the 0.40 threshold on 10/29. If it gets above 0.615 by the 10th day, next Monday 10/12 (there is trading on Columbus Day), it would trigger. It's a rare event and if it happens I'll suddenly become a believer that we've just completed a wave 4 correction (e.g., Tony Caldero's EW count) and we're now blasting off to record highs. The whole commodity and energy sectors are so oversold I could see that happening...which reminds me, I wanted to buy some KMI in my Roth IRA....

A rally to new highs just doesn't fit with so many other gurus I've been following, but I always keep an open mind. It never pays to stay biased one way or the other. The ZBT charts....

Markets Overview - J French - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com

$NYADV:$NYTOT - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

The ZBT is getting close to triggering. The highest I've seen it so far today is 0.609. If it can close at 0.615 or higher by 10/12 that would be a rare and very bullish signal. Hmm.

 

[Tsunami]

Whew, it didn't look good mid-day but so far after day 1 my plan is intact.

There are price T's that expire on Friday and Monday (when the TSP will be closed but the markets will be open):
Jeffrey Young's Public Chart List - Jeffrey Young - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com

And a major Bradley turn date on Friday:
Bradley Siderograph - 2015 Bradley Turn Dates

That bolsters my plan to bail back out on Friday. A brief break of 2020 on Friday or Monday could trap a lot of bulls right as the poor earnings reports start rolling in on Tuesday next week.
Then again, I'm seeing a lot of smart blogger posting evidence for just the opposite, including that this rally will continue right on into early November. Hmm. I'm staying cautious and am thrilled that I got back ahead of the G fund today LOL.

I'm an M's fan, but Go Cubs!

 

[ravensfan]

Hey congrats Tsunami! Nice call on jumping into the C Fund yesterday. I decided to heed Lunatic Traders experimental chart and bailed to the G Fund COB yesterday. Being only 40% invested I accumulated a 1.28% gain for this trade. Of course, I missed a nice gain today, but there is no sense being greedy.

I'm now sitting back and waiting for the next wave down to get back in.

FYI, The F Fund, C Fund and I Fund all closed today with higher highs than in September.

Take care and keep a close watch on those upper bollenger bands...~

 

[Tsunami]

Hey congrats Tsunami! Nice call on jumping into the C Fund yesterday. I decided to heed Lunatic Traders experimental chart and bailed to the G Fund COB yesterday. Being only 40% invested I accumulated a 1.28% gain for this trade. Of course, I missed a nice gain today, but there is no sense being greedy.

I'm now sitting back and waiting for the next wave down to get back in.

FYI, The F Fund, C Fund and I Fund all closed today with higher highs than in September.

Take care and keep a close watch on those upper bollenger bands...~

Thanks, the tracker isn't updated yet but it looks like the F fund closed down today per tsp.gov, so I should have jumped about 29 spots, up to around #180 in the tracker (what happened to the 400 or so that disappeared?...Tom, did you clean the tracker of non-participants?).

Yes, I do watch the Bollinger Bands, and you can get some excellent buy and sell signals by tracking this chart daily:
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
It looks like the NYMO and the SPX could close above their bands tomorrow or Friday with one final surge. That would be step 1 of a sell signal, then a close below the bands would be a sell signal...the VIX signal could be triggered too since it's close to it's lower BB, and that's the best signal....that would be a powerful trifecta of sell signals so I don't want to wait for that 2nd day after the markets have already reversed hard down, I want to be out on the day they close above the bands.

Lastly, I'm not sure how to read Danny's LT wave chart entirely, but yesterday the blue line was trending down, not peaking...
https://lunatictrader.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/ltwaveoctober2015.png so yesterday was a day to get in and that's why I did.
Now it shows a peak next Tuesday but I'd be terrified to wait through the holiday weekend and hope that Tuesday closes higher than this Friday, so if things trend higher tomorrow and early Friday that's my exit signal. After that he's predicting lows on 10/21 and 10/29 per the chart. My guess is 10/29 will be the low for the month and the day to jump in, but once again I'll have no IFTs to do so and could miss three huge up days through 11/1. ;swear
I need to get ahold of the TSP Board and offer them all a steak dinner or something for an extra IFT, it could literally be worth over five figures in some months.

 

[Whipsaw]

Thanks, the tracker isn't updated yet but it looks like the F fund closed down today per tsp.gov, so I should have jumped about 29 spots, up to around #180 in the tracker (what happened to the 400 or so that disappeared?...Tom, did you clean the tracker of non-participants?).

Yes, I do watch the Bollinger Bands, and you can get some excellent buy and sell signals by tracking this chart daily:
Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
It looks like the NYMO and the SPX could close above their bands tomorrow or Friday with one final surge. That would be step 1 of a sell signal, then a close below the bands would be a sell signal...the VIX signal could be triggered too since it's close to it's lower BB, and that's the best signal....that would be a powerful trifecta of sell signals so I don't want to wait for that 2nd day after the markets have already reversed hard down, I want to be out on the day they close above the bands.

Lastly, I'm not sure how to read Danny's LT wave chart entirely, but yesterday the blue line was trending down, not peaking...
https://lunatictrader.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/ltwaveoctober2015.png so yesterday was a day to get in and that's why I did.
Now it shows a peak next Tuesday but I'd be terrified to wait through the holiday weekend and hope that Tuesday closes higher than this Friday, so if things trend higher tomorrow and early Friday that's my exit signal. After that he's predicting lows on 10/21 and 10/29 per the chart. My guess is 10/29 will be the low for the month and the day to jump in, but once again I'll have no IFTs to do so and could miss three huge up days through 11/1. ;swear
I need to get ahold of the TSP Board and offer them all a steak dinner or something for an extra IFT, it could literally be worth over five figures in some months.

Tsunami, at the first chart link, the block says "Vix buy/SPX Sell" but doesn't reflect when to buy or sell... am I misinterpreting or is there a typo?

 

[Tsunami]

Tsunami, at the first chart link, the block says "Vix buy/SPX Sell" but doesn't reflect when to buy or sell... am I misinterpreting or is there a typo?

Each of the 3 charts comes with a little box with the rules. For example, the VIX is 3 steps...first you want to see the VIX close above the upper BB, step 2 is when it closes below the BB, then step 3 is a lower close for the VIX below the step 2...and that's when you would sell/short the VIX and buy the S&P 500. This only pertains to closing values only for all the charts, not intra-day. If you just reverse the steps in each box then you get the opposite signals. So for example if the SPX closes above it's BB, then the first day that it reverses and closes back below the BB you have a sell signal for the SPX. Basically it's just showing you when the market has reversed from an extreme level, it doesn't tell you how far the subsequent move will go though. You can see that the last two signals on the NYMO and SPX worked well though. It's a nice tool.

Futures down, the bulls will have to climb out of a hole again today.....and per Tom's "F" flag charts today, the S&P won't get to my target area of 2027ish (where wave 5 will be equal to wave 1 in this rally, a basic EW rule) until Tuesday...which happens to match that LT wave chart predicted top date of 10/13. Hmm. I might have to grit my teeth and close my eyes and stay in until Tuesday.

 

[airlift]

Each of the 3 charts comes with a little box with the rules. For example, the VIX is 3 steps...first you want to see the VIX close above the upper BB, step 2 is when it closes below the BB, then step 3 is a lower close for the VIX below the step 2...and that's when you would sell/short the VIX and buy the S&P 500. This only pertains to closing values only for all the charts, not intra-day. If you just reverse the steps in each box then you get the opposite signals. So for example if the SPX closes above it's BB, then the first day that it reverses and closes back below the BB you have a sell signal for the SPX. Basically it's just showing you when the market has reversed from an extreme level, it doesn't tell you how far the subsequent move will go though. You can see that the last two signals on the NYMO and SPX worked well though. It's a nice tool.

Futures down, the bulls will have to climb out of a hole again today.....and per Tom's "F" flag charts today, the S&P won't get to my target area of 2027ish (where wave 5 will be equal to wave 1 in this rally, a basic EW rule) until Tuesday...which happens to match that LT wave chart predicted top date of 10/13. Hmm. I might have to grit my teeth and close my eyes and stay in until Tuesday.

Tsunami,

To summarize, at 11:29AM the VIX Daily chart depicted the VIX at 18.65, with the lower BB Band at 17.46. Is the theory correct that to consider a buy signal to buy SPX long, the VIX must 1, close below the BB, then 2, close once above the BB, and the 3rd step should be to close again above the previous upward closing price of the VIX? The 3rd step is the buy signal to buy SPX? Tia

 

[ravensfan]

If I am reading Lunatic Traders chart correctly, it appears that today should be an up day, followed by a small loss on Friday. Then we should be up nicely on the 13th which fits in with the window of the new moon which starts sometime around the 14th to the 18th. Jumping in on Friday for a one day swing next Tuesday is certainly a gamble. I'll be on a cruise ship when the next full moon comes in and will not be able to submit an IFT until Nov 2nd. So the choice is do I take the gamble and get in on Friday or wait until after I return from my cruise???

 

[Tsunami]

RF - I don't think you can use that LT wave chart for precise of day-to-day timing, but haven't looked it closely. I'm just using it as a tool to time possible tops and bottoms.

Right now, boy this thing has broken out again and it looks like it will hit my 2027 target tomorrow, if not at the close today. This is a fast moving market!

And....looks like we're going to get that Zweig Breadth Thrust signal today. A lot of bloggers will be talking about it tonight/tomorrow but you heard it here first LOL.

Markets Overview - J French - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com

This will be the first signal since July 2010 per that chart (the other times since then took more than the 10 days allowed), and it argues that we might be kicking off a huge rally into next year. Hmmm. So now I'm afraid of bailing out tomorrow and missing another big rally once things cool off for a few days next week. :worried:

Here comes a wave 5 of wave 3 of wave 5 if I'm counting right, and it could close at the high of the day above 2016.5, finishing wave 3 of 5. Tomorrow would be another opening gap down (wave 4 of wave 5, and another rally (wave 5 of 5) finishing in the 2020's somewhere...we'll see how I do.