Tsunami's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
So it didn't finish that last wave, too much profit taking into the close.....so now it can gap up on Friday instead, then meander around and close higher hopefully.

The market is so perverse. The headlines read that the Fed is worried, so shouldn't we be too?...heck no, buy buy buy!

Earnings reports are coming in awful, Alcoa just added itself to the list...I'll be selling tomorrow mostly likely. :cool:
 
For the Nasdaq, looking for a peak in the 4400-4410 area. It could get there today, maybe Monday, maybe Tuesday....but I'm comfortable with my IFT today that will book profits then I'll sit back and wait for 11/1 to start looking for a low to get in again. I hope I don't miss a rocket ride higher, but don't think I will.

https://twitter.com/peterghostine

http://www.61point8.com/Portals/0/article images/20151007/20151007NQF1.png

http://content.screencast.com/users...4ffb19590/151009 NDX 15min Rising Channel.png

More info on the Zweig Breath Thrust. It's not quite as cut-and-dry bullish as I'd thought...
Zweig Breadth Thrust

Hope everyone has a great holiday weekend. The annual Balloon Fiesta in ABQ has been a great one this year; I've never seen so many balloons flying over my house.

The Albuquerque International Balloon Fiesta - Welcome to the Albuquerque International Balloon Fiesta

If you ever go, just don't go the first Saturday when the crowds are horrendous! And hey, the penguin and pirate ship balloons from England have been found and may fly tomorrow, woo hoo!
http://krqe.com/2015/10/07/penguins...-to-albuquerque-international-balloon-fiesta/
Right now is the "special shapes" rodeo, always a crowd pleaser:
http://krqe.com/2015/10/09/balloon-fiesta-schedule-day-seven/
Tomorrow and Sunday will be the final two mass ascensions, over 500 balloons all over the place.
 
Tsunami said:
For the Nasdaq, looking for a peak in the 4400-4410 area. It could get there today, maybe Monday, maybe Tuesday....but I'm comfortable with my IFT today that will book profits then I'll sit back and wait for 11/1 to start looking for a low to get in again. I hope I don't miss a rocket ride higher, but don't think I will.
Click to expand...

Congratulations Tsunami!!! I calculate that you made a nice profit of 1.81%. :arms: I decided not to risk getting back in today. With the moon phase getting ready to go into the red period I may IFT into the F Fund for the rest of the month next week. Thanks for all your support and have a great weekend!!!
 
Thanks RF...

John Hampson at SolarCyclesNet posted a series of interesting charts yesterday showing how the SPX has performed after the NY McClellan Oscillator got extremely high, like it is now. In August the stock market crashed down and snapped back. Over the last week the market has basically "crashed" up, and now it needs to snap down, potentially very hard. I like the fall of 2008 chart in particular since the market pattern was identical to where we are now, and what came next was a terrifying 25% drop in just 12 trading sessions, from 1006 on 11/4/08 down to 752 on 11/20/08... I don't think that kind of plunge will happen now though, but 10% down to 1820ish by Halloween wouldn't surprise me.

https://twitter.com/SolarCyclesNet

Even if we "only" get what happened in 2011 per this chart, the lows may be tested again...

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-TXfD1hxpO...aQLaAs/s1600/02+-+151006+SPX+2015+vs+2011.gif

I'm not sure my move to F will work out, but I'm due for a winning trade in the F fund for sure.
 
Wow, finally a gigantic win by my Cougs at Oregon! Sorry Duck fans. 17 point underdogs.... the Cougs were 10 points down with 5 minutes go but stormed back and tied it with 1 second left, then won in double overtime. 500+ yards passing by Luke Falk. The officials tried so hard to take the game from WSU, bad call after bad call against WSU but they overcame it. Former Coug QB great Jason Gesser said it was the worst officiating he's seen in his life in high school, college, or the NFL, but they overcame it.

Biggest win since beating Texas in the Holiday Bowl over 10 years ago!

2OT Win at Oregon.JPG
 
Tsunami said:
Wow, finally a gigantic win by my Cougs at Oregon! Sorry Duck fans. 17 point underdogs.... the Cougs were 10 points down with 5 minutes go but stormed back and tied it with 1 second left, then won in double overtime. 500+ yards passing by Luke Falk. The officials tried so hard to take the game from WSU, bad call after bad call against WSU but they overcame it. Former Coug QB great Jason Gesser said it was the worst officiating he's seen in his life in high school, college, or the NFL, but they overcame it.

Biggest win since beating Texas in the Holiday Bowl over 10 years ago!

View attachment 35551
Click to expand...

I "liked" that first part of your post, but could have done without the last sentence. :cheesy:
 
LOL IT...no disrespect to Texas for sure, and that was a similarly big turnaround win over Oklahoma yesterday (now there's a team I despise, thanks to them rolling over us in the 2003 Rose Bowl).

Here's some interesting weekend reading on the ZBT....

"Stock level price momentum works much better when the market is going up. Avoid betting on price momentum when the market is falling....In the case ZBTs, they are powerful bull moves in a very short time, which leaves the market highly overbought. With such an overbought market, should you continue to bet on positive breadth and price momentum?"

Humble Student of the Markets: The Zweig Breadth Thrust as a case study in quantitative analysis

Man, Andy Dalton is shredding Seattle's secondary. :eek:
 
WOW!!!!That's a huge win for the Cougs and has to boost their confidence. It's been a long time since they fielded a strong winning team. All the best to them. I used to live in Spokane (so while I'm technically a Gonzaga fan), I've always loved the Cougs. Many many many of the Spokane kids went to WSU. On a negative note, the Hawks faltered big time yesterday to the Bengals in the 4th quarter. How do you blow a 17 point lead. Lots of problems with both offense and defense this year.

FS
 
Oil was the first domino to fall yesterday. Now we've had what looks to me like a clear 5 waves down from the top at 2022 today. So now the question will be are we starting wave C down to new lows well below 1867?...or do we just need to correct the recent rally from 1871 at the end of September? I'm leaning towards the former but most of Wall Street is "hoping" otherwise.

Hope is dangerous. I'm biased for sure (sitting in the F fund), but I don't believe in this sort of gloom though....
XLF has the Same Crash Set-Up as Oil at its 2011 High | Trader Moe

Lots of earnings reports after the bell...will Intel disappoint as usual and send the futures down?
 
Hmm, gold and bonds (AGG) flying but are now well above their Bollinger bands, primed for a reversal straight down. Meanwhile stock index's are diverging (e.g., QQQ much stronger than others) and not showing clear impulse waves down. My spidey sense is saying to be careful, the tide could suddenly reverse here near 1990 even though the lunar green phase ends today, creating a headwind for stocks for the next two weeks...but that ZBT signal could provide the tailwind needed to negate that.

Confusing. :blink:
 
I got out the day before the downturn as recommended by Jeff, been in F since.


Growth Stock Wire | Stock Market Analysis, Market News & Stock Picks


"The stock market is even more overbought today than it was last week.
Over the past two weeks, we saw the S&P 500 rally as much as 7.5%.
That's a remarkable move. And the proverbial rubber band is now stretched far to
the upside.
It can stretch further. Overbought conditions can get even more
overbought.
But the odds are against it...
Too many technical indicators are now at levels that often coincide with a
short-term top in the stock market.
The stock market has held up well since I
turned cautious on it last week. But with so many technical indicators at
levels that often precede a broad stock market decline, it's hard to argue that
the market is headed even higher in the near term
Traders need to be cautious here. Tighten your stops. Trim your profits.
And brace yourself for a big move to the downside."
 
I see its official now, no COLA for millions of people next year:
MOAA - Take Action Landing

I just hope with all this talk about deflation and negative interest rates, and the shaky market, that the powers that be don't decide to completely eliminate our federal pay increase in January. That would especially suck in my area and the others that are supposed to finally have the new locality pay thing implemented in their area. I've been looking forward to getting out of the "Rest of the U.S." without having to actually move.

It's about decision time for the market here. Either this is another rally that will be sold and new lows are coming (and the coming red lunar phase that starts Saturday would support that), or the seasonal bias will propel the markets up to challenge the record highs.

Follow-up on that FS interview yesterday, rather gloomy forecasts and he thinks everyone should be buying some gold...my two miners (PVG and FSM) are sure doing well now.
Michael Lewitt: Beginning Stages of a Bear Market; Talk of Negative Interest Rates Point to Increasingly Desperate Situation | FS Staff | FINANCIAL SENSE

...and wow, the dollar is getting close to breaking down below support today.
$USD - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com
 
Last edited:
Hail to Marty Zweig and his ZBT! :banana:

Last hope for the bears might be the 2040-50 area, after that gap at 2035 gets filled. Options expiration and the end of the lunar green phase is tomorrow though, so we'll see if next week brings more ghoulish things until the end of October. :eek:
 
TS: I read Financial Sense quite often and I find them very imformative. I still think we have another down wave to 1840 or thereabouts and another impulse wave up before we really see this bear....but I hear him stomping around back there in the thistles..

FS
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

V
Valleymd blog (the international question)
Replies
2
Views
180
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - The bulls are back
Replies
0
Views
153
tsptalk
tsptalk
RevShark
  • Article Article
RevShark's TSP Timing Changes
Replies
0
Views
153
RevShark
RevShark
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - We have a very busy week for the stock and bond markets
Replies
0
Views
119
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - The CPI showed inflation under control
Replies
0
Views
163
tsptalk
tsptalk
Back
Top