Tsunami's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
TSP: I'm conservative in the Fall-season of my career, esp. with the market volatility; yet I went in about 35% equities today from G & F, hoping we've not "topped out" today & that good seasonality for the next few trade-days wins out.
RETIREMENT: Ditto on "congrats" for almost being eligible for retirement! I just became full-eligible" last month; not ready yet (maybe 2-to-4 years?); though ReFi'd home mortgage last week to drop my payments significantly to be able to afford the payments in retirement if we don't down-size (from 15-yr to 30-yr fixed at .25% lower rate); gotta cover last kid's college still too.
WSU: Double DITTO on your "hopeful/ not expecting" a win Halloween night... though watching Stanford-Dowgee game, Standford looked more beatable to me; we can win with the recent type of quick start we've had lately, if the "O" can continue some of that in 2nd half, and we don't try to give away the game with our turnovers or allowing turnovers. Either way I'll be in SoCal so attending the November game against UCLA & now thinking it a very plausible WIN chance. As always, GO COUGS!

Tsunami said:
FS - I'm hopeful but not expecting WSU to beat Stanford...their 13 point spread is well-deserved, but I think we can put up more of a fight than the Huskies did last week. We'll see. Go Cougs!
Click to expand...
 
Tsunami said:
This is looking an awful lot like the mid-September peak. Transports and small caps are already leading the way, while big tech is leading the QQQ's to one last hurrah, maybe even to a new high tomorrow on a Fed-induced spurt that will fail.

FS - I'm hopeful but not expecting WSU to beat Stanford...their 13 point spread is well-deserved, but I think we can put up more of a fight than the Huskies did last week. We'll see. Go Cougs! I'm kinda hoping that they finish in the #7 spot so my wife and I can watch them in the Cactus Bowl in Phoenix on 1/2/16, then go to that Seahawk/Arizona game the next day. That would be a great start to 2016, which is also the year I become eligible to retire!
Click to expand...
Sorry to intrude men; too bad your team is not facing these bad boys this year. Yeah, Utes got clobbered last week but still, the Ute train keeps' a rollin'

thVVGL9IH3.jpg
 
Hey, how about WSU vs. Utah in the Pac-12 Championship game? Works for me. :smile:

FAAM - Yes, congrats on reaching that milestone, and I also have a similar window of 1-3 years beyond that...depending a lot on my confidence that we're through any big risk of a big slide in the markets.

Here's another chart that tells me that risk isn't gone despite the euphoria late today. This is the P/E ratio of the S&P 500. In July we were hearing that it was getting too high...well, now that it's even higher why is there panic buying? Crazy.
!PESPX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

I haven't followed Trader Moe for long, but it seems you can count on him for a bearish view...
Trader Moe | A Professional Gambler's Guide to Trading the Markets
 
TSP-R: I've had a soft spot for the UTES since they joined the best Conference - Saw them as kind-of kindred spirits with the Cougs. a lot of similarities in cultures of the schools & teams.

Q: Thx. I like the idea of our two teams in the Pac-12 Championship too. I saw some similarities with the July-current SPY chart and the WSU-Coug's football/fan season... tried to attach the graphic as PDF-file below & hope that works.
And your comment about not being overconfident and big risks with the equities rings true for the Cougar's next game I think. Just hoping the Coug-season and the SPY both shoot UP now.

View attachment WSU-Cougars+SPY-SeasonComparedOct'15,km.pdf

Tsunami said:
Hey, how about WSU vs. Utah in the Pac-12 Championship game? Works for me. :smile:
FAAM - Yes, congrats on reaching that milestone, and I also have a similar window of 1-3 years beyond that...depending a lot on my confidence that we're through any big risk of a big slide in the markets.
Here's another chart that tells me that risk isn't gone despite the euphoria late today. This is the P/E ratio of the S&P 500. In July we were hearing that it was getting too high...well, now that it's even higher why is there panic buying? Crazy.
Click to expand...
 
The chart worked just fine, very interesting correlation, Thanks. Good luck against Stanford, it's going to be a tough one. Utes beat Stanford last year at Stanford, it was a defensive double long overtime defensive stalemate, Utes finally broke it into a 20-17 win. Quite a dramatic exciting game. Utes get Oregon State this weekend, Utes should beat them but you never know. I think WSU clobbered the Beavers 52-31. WSU"s 3 wins in a row, not bad. Going to have to dig in deep for Stanford. Good luck. Last year WSU beat the Utes 28-27, a road game for the Cougs; that loss cost the Utes dearly.
 
Great graphic FAAM!... I think the Stanford game on ESPN Saturday will be the first one on national TV since the final stadium renovations were completed, so its WSU's first chance to show-off what they've created (thank you Bill Moos and all those responsible!) to potential recruits on TV nationwide.

TSP-R - I remember that Utah game well last year since I was driving around southern Utah at the end of a week-long scenic road trip. I remember driving through pouring rain and listening on satellite radio...the Cougs seemed to be doing their usual flub-ups and getting hopelessly behind...so bad that I gave up and turned off the game...then I got to my hotel room in Flagstaff, turned on the TV...and, say whaaaat, WSU had just pulled ahead and won. It was about the only highlight of an otherwise forgettable season. Basketball season starts soon...I'm hoping Ernie Kent continues to turn around the basketball program like Leach is finally doing for football. I went to school way back from '78-'82, that included some of the best years when George Raveling was HC (and when Jack Thompson was the first great QB in the string of QB's that made WSU famous for QB's, Mark Rypian was next and I think he was a freshman my Senior year...or maybe that was Samoa Samoa, from Somao...really, that was the guys name and he lived in my dorm Stephenson South)....I think it was '83 when we lost to Ralph Sampson and Virginia in a close one in the 2nd round, maybe the Cougs best team ever that year with 3 players that went to the NBA. Good teams are few and far between or WSU, but that makes it awfully sweet when it happens.

Futures are up, maybe one final stab higher tomorrow but I expect weakness in November, especially late November with perhaps a repeat of 2011 when the market bottoms on the day after Thanksgiving. My IFTs are messed up so I might have to stay out clear until then if it behaves the way I expect...and man am I hating the F fund again after the last couple of days! Bonds are so close to the end of their long bull market since the early 80s that I'm starting to think it's best to just avoid the F fund permanently...all my research on that lunatic system pretty much showed there's been very little advantage to using F versus G anyway. Here's an interesting chart with an indicator that's just completed a mirror image of what it did in October 2011, and the dates of the highs/lows were almost identical to this year, thus my prediction for a low on the day after Thanksgiving...and to back that up the next red lunar phase ends on exactly that day, the day after Thanksgiving...

Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

...sitting here watching Oregon beat up on ASU...that bodes well for our game against ASU next week....if Stanford rolls over us we can still become bowl eligible as soon as next week....whoops, ASU just scored again, now it's close, 17-14.
 
Last edited:
Good luck fellows, I hope WSU beats Stanford, you got home field advantage and great loud fans. your game is scheduled for:

WASHINGTON STATE HOSTS NO. 8 STANFORD SATURDAY
Washington State (5-2, 3-1 Pac-12) returns to Martin Stadium to host No. 8 Stanford (6-1, 5-0 Pac-12) Saturday at 7:30 p.m. on ESPN.

I think, just guessing Arizona State might just beat Oregon. ASU 24 - Oregon 17.


 
TSP-roulette said:


I think, just guessing Arizona State might just beat Oregon. ASU 24 - Oregon 17.

Click to expand...

Not trying to turn this into a sports forum, but I see that Oregon was handed a gift late last night and got the win in triple OT over ASU. Looking at the pics and videos I see that the refs and replay guys blew it since that last TD was out of bounds. The officiating in the Pac-12 has been abysmal this year. WSU would have beat Cal without the FOUR blown calls at the end of that game including a blatant pass interference that the TV announcers were screaming about.

As for the stock market....zzzzzzzzzzz... It looks like it's starting to roll over but will take until next week to get going. In recent years there's but quite a few months where from start to finish the month has gone up, or down, then reversed on the first day of the following month. This could be another one of those cases.
 
Quite a game. I'm not an Oregon fan and I'm not an ASU fan. ASU tends to carry around a cocky attitude. I know because I live here. Not like those sweet humble little Cougars..:D

I'm thinking we have another leg up to about 2120 or so if the EW guys are reading it right....it's just the timing that I don't have a clue about :nuts:

I agree with you about F. It's rarely kind to me.

FS
 
Looks like a very clear 5-wave impulse down from today's top (wave 1), followed by a clear 3-wave rally (wave 2), then the beginning of wave 3 down into the close...Monday will begin with a gap down for the middle of wave 3 in this first small impulse down of the big bad wave C of the bear market. Wave B topped today....I think anyway.
 
That pretty much what Tony Caldero also said TS. However, he explained it as we were in in Primary V, then Wave 5 of Interim iii and that 2094 could have been the top. If so, a pullback of 3-4 days of 40 points or so is probably next up. However, I'm still hoping for a quick pullback and then we rally to around 2100 over the next several weeks. At least....that's my sincere hope..

All the best in your investing.

FS
 
FogSailing said:
That pretty much what Tony Caldero also said TS. However, he explained it as we were in in Primary V, then Wave 5 of Interim iii and that 2094 could have been the top. If so, a pullback of 3-4 days of 40 points or so is probably next up. However, I'm still hoping for a quick pullback and then we rally to around 2100 over the next several weeks. At least....that's my sincere hope..

All the best in your investing.

FS
Click to expand...

I am still confused with the start and end of the different waves. I did invest in TNA small cap IWM proxy but saved some funds to buy more if the markets go down. According to your expectations, You are hoping for a quick pullback and then to the upside. I also hope that you are right! Question, when you estimated the 40 point pullback, were you thinking of SPX 2094 minus 40 points, or are you thinking Friday's close of SPX 2079.36 minus 40?
 
Hi Airlift. I'm no expert here. I try to read several EW sites and get a flavor of what EW people are thinking. My understanding is the 40-50 point drop will likely occur from Friday's close....IF 2094 was the top. There is speculation that it might be....but no one knows for sure.. I think TS believes it could be the top and thus we begin a pullback.

Another point I want to make is that one of these guys was projecting November about a week and a half ago and didn't have us hitting 2094 until mid-November: so I'm always a bit cynical about EW even though I think there is some very interesting science there.

My gut says we begin a pullback on Monday in SPX, but my contrarian side says the bulls want to make money now and want to delay the pullback for at least a few days for a surprise rally. That's how I'm betting and I could be dead wrong.

All the best in your investing.

FS
 
Hi.

LOL. Sometimes I think EW analysts just draw them in wherever they fit. I also notice they don’t always refer to the wave in discussion correctly according to Elliot theory. In discussions analysts may refer to the same wave by a different name.

So, this is minor 5 of intermediate iii so intermediate iv will be down with five minor ups and downs then intermediate v will be up (in five up-down steps) which will conclude major wave 5 which means we will start some other type of wave and be screwed in S&P500 for a while?

Is “major” called “primary” by some and what is the next level called (cycle?) and what wave are we in there? 4?

Anyway it is interesting to try to follow. I just can’t sometimes.

PO
 
FogSailing said:
Hi Airlift. I'm no expert here. I try to read several EW sites and get a flavor of what EW people are thinking. My understanding is the 40-50 point drop will likely occur from Friday's close....IF 2094 was the top. There is speculation that it might be....but no one knows for sure.. I think TS believes it could be the top and thus we begin a pullback.

Another point I want to make is that one of these guys was projecting November about a week and a half ago and didn't have us hitting 2094 until mid-November: so I'm always a bit cynical about EW even though I think there is some very interesting science there.

My gut says we begin a pullback on Monday in SPX, but my contrarian side says the bulls want to make money now and want to delay the pullback for at least a few days for a surprise rally. That's how I'm betting and I could be dead wrong.

All the best in your investing.

FS
Click to expand...

FogSailing,

Good trading to you too! If we get a surprise rally instead of a drop, well we are ready for both; provided that with seasonality in November, any drop is relatively shallow or contained. If the drop begins tomorrow, I held back to some funds, hoping that I can buy lower. Thanks for the clarification.
 
PO...you've got the EW lingo down....:D:D:D

I totally hear you about how different people discuss EW. If you lack a working knowledge with some deeper level of understanding, it is very difficult to follow. I will say though that there are some EW guys out there that I give a lots of credit to.

Hey: glad you got your coin PO. Hope you're enjoying these great temps.

I'm loving it right now.

FS
 
Some EW guys are better than others, but none of them get it right more than 60% of the time or so...

I think this week is critical though for the bulls vs. bears battle. The symmetry in the markets has been amazing and if it continues the bears will regain control this week, steadily building to a much bigger drop coming after mid-Decemberish....a drop down to 2020 would look good for the next move...
Symmetry | NorthmanTrader

As for the Cougs vs. the Trees battle, oh my, a missed 43-yard field goal by WSU at the final gun that would have won the game and made for headlines today (and the kicker had made 5 in a row prior to that including longer ones, argh) drifted wide right. :sick:
Washington State can

Instead the headlines are that Stanford won the game as expected, no big deal. Sigh. So the Rose Bowl hopes are gone....but on the bright side maybe it will be the Sun Bowl or the Cactus Bowl so I can go.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

J
When to withdraw (public safety retiree)
Replies
13
Views
216
nasa1974
nasa1974
James48843
OPM services online
Replies
3
Views
172
exnavyew
exnavyew
JTH
  • Article Article
March Update: 1 Chart, 5 Outcomes
Replies
0
Views
76
JTH
JTH
V
Valleymd blog (the international question)
Replies
2
Views
219
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
TSP Talk - So long, February!
Replies
0
Views
155
tsptalk
tsptalk
Back
Top