Tsunami's Account Talk

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Tsunami said:
That's why the next evolution of my trading strategy was to incorporate bull and bear market signals to help me avoid the bulk of bear markets, and capture the first year of bull markets by just staying in S. Basically I'm just going with a long-term monthly SPX chart and looking at the RSI and MACD, and last July this chart would have told me to escape to the G or F fund.

Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

I don't trust F, but it's doing well again and trying to send a signal to the Fed, so I just jumped into F and will stay there until the bottom of this wave 1 down late this month or in early Feb.
Click to expand...
That is an Awesome chart Tsunami! Thank You!!
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
That is an Awesome chart Tsunami! Thank You!!
Click to expand...

I like that chart too and wish I could find one like it, but without the notes on it. Someday I'll get a stockcharts account and do that.

This fits pretty well with what I expect over the next week or so, a low on Monday around 1900ish, then a wave 4 bounce, then (per the purple line) another drop to a more lasting bottom (a few weeks or so) later this month near the August low....
http://trader-moe.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/falling-megaphone-set-up-1-8.jpg

It doesn't really matter to me anymore though, since I just bought the winning $800 million Powerball ticket. :D
 
Jan 22nd for the first buyable low of 2016 would fit well into what I'm looking for, but that could allow for quite a bit more carnage until then...
Stock Market Committed to 2008 Scenario - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial

Good article about seasonal investing, but this quote sure isn't working out for the current administration:
"Wars, recessions and bear markets tend to start or occur in the first half of the term, with prosperous times and bull markets in the latter half."
http://www.aaii.com/journal/article/using-seasonal-and-cyclical-stock-market-patterns.touch

And so much for the January Effect. Small caps are still leading the way down, a sure sign that we're in a full-blown bear market at this point.

And as for the January Barometer, it looks quite likely already that it's forecasting a down year...
"The January Barometer has registered only seven major errors since 1950, for an 88.9% accuracy ratio."
"every down January in the S&P 500 since 1938, without exception, has preceded a new or extended bear market, a 10% correction, or a flat year"

Then there is the "First Five Days Early Warning System"...."on the fifth trading day, the First Five Days early warning system sounds off (when the first five trading days of the year are up, the full year has ended up 85% of the time over the last 40 years)." That didn't work out well this year.

Then there's this...2000...2008...and 8 years later here we are in 2016...
"A 4.0% decline in 2000 foreshadowed the bursting of the tech bubble and a 2.5% loss in 2008 preceded the second-worst bear market in history."

Buy the dips, sell the rips. That works especially well in a trading account.
 
The free weekend podcasts on financialsense.com have been part of my Saturday routine for a decade now, I highly recommend it to those that have the time...

Ralph Acampora: "We're falling apart here...sell the rallies"
Ralph Acampora: Raise Cash and Sit on the Sidelines for Now | James J Puplava CFP | FINANCIAL SENSE

On Monday's/Tuesday's they do a free podcast that's usually on retirement and health topics:
Financial Sense Newshour | FINANCIAL SENSE

This chart is now firmly back on a sell signal...
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p74540906682&a=308233790&r=719
I'm looking for a bottom this spring when the 600ema and the trend line from the 2000 and 2007 peaks on that chart meet, which should be near 1575, which should also offer support since it's near the 2007 top. Short term, looking for a low Monday...just below $103 for QQQ, and not far from 1900 for the S&P...then a bounce...for a couple days?...maybe 4 days up to options expiration on 1/15?...no way to know...regardless, I'm looking to buy at a lower low later...maybe 1/22-ish per that weekly commentary from McClellan. Normally I'd go with the S fund for one of these bear market short covering rallies, but it's been so weak...might go with C instead.

Here's a possibility, if the S&P follows these envelopes, maybe a 1895ish bottom Monday, then an 1855ish bottom later in January....
$SPX - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Go Seahawks! (I hope they bring several layers of thermal undies...zero degrees at kickoff?!!)
 
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Ciovacco is the most wishy-washy guru out there, but he posts lots of great charts...this week, two very ominous H&S charts at about the 12-minute mark...and the TLT chart breakout at the 13:10 mark, and the IEF chart at 14:50, has me feeling better about my F fund move...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ItjfudcNMhU

VUSTX has been clearly outperforming FAGIX since last May, another checkmark that a bear market is underway.
// www.TTheory.com Public Chart List // - Paula M Burke - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com

Sheez, is anyone gonna score in this Pittsburgh-Cincy game?
 
That lower trend line looks like a tantalizing target for Monday...then what?...a rocket ride all the way back up to the arc?...

https://northmantrader.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/spx-arch5.png

That would get everyone oh so close to break-even, then the rug comes out again. The boys are going to have a great time this year, big Christmas bonuses for all the money they swipe from us.


Chart heaven...
Technical Charts | NorthmanTrader

PUG had that trend line as a target for the wave 1 bottom way back in mid-November...1884...now it's almost here...
https://twitter.com/PUGStockMarket
 
Tsunami said:
Looks like the wave 3 low is in at 1901...now comes a wave 4....a normal 23% retracement of the wave 3 fall would peak around 1948...maybe as soon as tomorrow...then down in wave 5 to the low I want to attempt to time a buy with my second IFT, maybe as soon as this Friday.

An interesting read from John Mauldin...
Economicus Terra Incognita | Thoughts from the Frontline Investment Newsletter | Mauldin Economics
Click to expand...
Hello from Aloha Land. Headed back to Arizona today. I took a bath in market last week but at least enjoyed the surf here. If you ever travel to Kona...you have to take the Fairbanks Hula Kai adventure and swim with the manta rays. We had 4 of them join us...the largest had an 8 foot wing span. Graceful and very friendly. No wonder KK lives here. Best food was at Jackie Reyes...absolutely to die for especially the Lilokai cheese cake.

Headed to the airport and then back to home turf. Hope we turned the corner today and that we bounce. We need to break above 1956 for me to feel comfortable....hopefully we make 2020 so we can get back close to even...absolutely no guarantees in this market. I'll be out around at 2000ish if we make it that far.

How about that crappie kick TS. My bet is he'll be feeling the heat in Minneapolis...and it's been a bit chilly there...heh heh.

Look forward to jumping back on the Forum when we get home and settled back in.

FS

Sent from my SM-T550 using Tapatalk
 
Looks like that wave 4 may already be done, if so it was very weak.

Too bad CNBC won't put someone on to tell the truth about the relative overvaluation of the markets right now, and if they do they give them about 30 seconds to talk and them mock them. Instead it's a steady diet of permabulls most of the time....I like Hulbert, he provides the truth:
Stocks still aren

Meanwhile the permabears are growling. I don't think things can get this bad...but then again, I never thought oil could get back below $30 either....
S&P could plunge 75% to 550, says SocGen perma-bear Albert Edwards - MarketWatch
 
Thought, I'd better move this out of Dinicti's thread.

Tsunami said:
Ah ha! That place cost DOE a massive headache a few years ago as it was being transitioned to a private facility. There was a small container with some rather nasty radioactive garbage that took 4 or 5 years and probably well over a million dollars to finally dispose of....Maybe you're the culprit that created it LOL....another tidbit that may interest you...due to New Mexico's refusal to comply with DHS's driver's license rules, very soon ITRI employees may have to start showing passports at the base gate in order to get to their jobs.
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Thanks for those tidbits of information. I was wondering if they'de ever find that. They must have gotten suspicious that nobody's lunch in that fridge ever spoiled. :laugh: Actually, I never worked with the really hot stuff; only low level beta emitters like C14 & Ni63.

Believe it or not, according to the test animals the worst thing I ever worked with was cigarette smoke. ITRI was just starting up the combined studies with cigarette smoke and other toxins when I left. Because of the lawsuits brought by uranium miners the government wanted to know how much of their cancer was brought about by mining yellow cake and how much was due to their own smoking. That's not an easy question to answer because the combined affects can be worse than the sum of each separately.

Anyways, the first tests didn't work because the rats refused to smoke. They would literally turn their heads around in the exposure tubes and suffocate themselves rather than breath in the smoke. It really makes you stop and think. We had to redesign the exposure chambers for those studies. It took a lot more time after that because we had to yolk and collar every animal and bolt its head into place in the tube. It was kind of pathetic, actually. I'm glad I left before that really got going.

P.S. At that time the institute was run by four directors, all MDs. 3 out of 4 of those doctors were smokers. :rolleyes:
 
The impact of oil on the market is absolutely astounding. Looks like we are headed for the 1901 pivot. If that breaks.... 1867 is up next. If oil hasn't found a bottom by then, we could a further slide to as low as 1750SPX (with 1820 and 1800 pivots along the way as possible support). My guess would be that at 1867 you'll get another rally but the question in this market will be "Is it corrective?" We're all reading the TA indicators and I don't feel like they particularly helped me know how things are going. The news is dominating the market action and TA has worked "against me" more recently than "for me". For the past two months, we are seeing a trend of a one or two day rally followed by many days of downward action. I was thinking we were headed for a nice rally in the last two weeks of this month but now I'm not so sure. But that's how they like it...uncertainty reigns supreme in the marketplace.

FS
 
FogSailing said:
The impact of oil on the market is absolutely astounding. Looks like we are headed for the 1901 pivot. If that breaks.... 1867 is up next. If oil hasn't found a bottom by then, we could a further slide to as low as 1750SPX (with 1820 and 1800 pivots along the way as possible support). My guess would be that at 1867 you'll get another rally but the question in this market will be "Is it corrective?" We're all reading the TA indicators and I don't feel like they particularly helped me know how things are going. The news is dominating the market action and TA has worked "against me" more recently than "for me". For the past two months, we are seeing a trend of a one or two day rally followed by many days of downward action. I was thinking we were headed for a nice rally in the last two weeks of this month but now I'm not so sure. But that's how they like it...uncertainty reigns supreme in the marketplace.

FS
Click to expand...

Wow! Talk about getting slaughtered. I'm in for the elevator to the bottom...or perhaps...like previous stock market crashes...catching the falling knife takes off a few fingers. 😱
 
Tom mentioned the strong inventory report today...here's a story about that. The part about no ships moving worldwide was proven to be bunk, but the Baltic Dry Index plunging to record lows is real, and not a good thing...
"Nothing Is Moving," Baltic Dry Crashes As Insiders Warn "Commerce Has Come To A Halt" | Zero Hedge

This looks pretty scary...makes me think that an S&P 500 low around 1575 is optimistic...
NYSE Margin Debt Rose Fractionally in November - dshort - Advisor Perspectives

The Wilshire 5000 cracked below it's neckline today. The H&S pattern targets 14% lower from today's close...
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/--VFl7hnc9ds/VpbweIhqkZI/AAAAAAAAbvw/3uUq-li1Opc/s1600/Wilshire+Daily.png

Despite all that, I think I'll be moving into the C fund tomorrow...lets see how bad I can screw up my account. At least I'll have lots of company.
 
Tsunami said:
Tom mentioned the strong inventory report today...here's a story about that. The part about no ships moving worldwide was proven to be bunk, but the Baltic Dry Index plunging to record lows is real, and not a good thing...
"Nothing Is Moving," Baltic Dry Crashes As Insiders Warn "Commerce Has Come To A Halt" | Zero Hedge

This looks pretty scary...makes me think that an S&P 500 low around 1575 is optimistic...
NYSE Margin Debt Rose Fractionally in November - dshort - Advisor Perspectives

The Wilshire 5000 cracked below it's neckline today. The H&S pattern targets 14% lower from today's close...
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/--VFl7hnc9ds/VpbweIhqkZI/AAAAAAAAbvw/3uUq-li1Opc/s1600/Wilshire+Daily.png

Despite all that, I think I'll be moving into the C fund tomorrow...lets see how bad I can screw up my account. At least I'll have lots of company.
Click to expand...

LOL :D
 
Well that didn't take long...upon further review, I've chickened out and am aborting that move to C, for now. I think there's still another larger wave 4 and 5 to go and it so it might not bottom until late in the month.

LOL...the powerball website is down from all the traffic...that could be the situation for online brokers soon too...
 
Tsunami said:
Well that didn't take long...upon further review, I've chickened out and am aborting that move to C, for now. I think there's still another larger wave 4 and 5 to go and it so it might not bottom until late in the month.

LOL...the powerball website is down from all the traffic...that could be the situation for online brokers soon too...
Click to expand...

Wise choice!!! :D
 
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