Tsunami's Account Talk

[Nordic]

Time for an update....

The closing Arms numbers have stayed below 1.0 for 5 days and today could be a 6th. That points to another big drop coming and it could start off with a bang. http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-tradingdiary.html?mod=mdc_t

For this weeks move I think the correct Elliott wave count is this one, with the green squiggle where we're headed tomorrow (up, thanks to Cisco/tech taking the lead in wave C up of this move). http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S2nmATHXRSI/AAAAAAAAD0c/zjNXI1XVGtM/s1600-h/spx1.png I think that he and others are wrong though that after this rally ends (Friday?) the next move is a scary wave 3 down. I think this whole drop is just a corrective wave "X", just like the one last June/July, and it will be followed by another strong rally, not doomsday (yet). I caught this up move perfectly, buying in last Friday in my non-TSP accounts, but had no ETF to do so in my TSP, that was my fault though for not following my January plan. I wish I could track my daughters Vanguard Education IRA in the TSP tracker instead of my TSP account, I'm already up 4.8% this year in that one thanks to the lack of TSP's restrictions.

Lastly, I'm now about 2/3's of the way through Harry S. Dent's "The Great Depression Ahead", in which he predicted based on demographics that the Great Depression 2 would start no later than this month. I'm hoping he's early on that but the reasoning overall is compelling. One big conclusion I've reached from that book is that I have a third thing to complain about besides the 4-hour-early ETF deadline, and the 2 trades per month.....and that is that the I fund is garbage. It was OK 10 years ago, but not now. The countries with positive demographics going forward that I'd prefer to be able to invest in include those with positive demographics like India, Vietnam, Malaysia, Turkey, and Chile. By 2050 India's GDP will surpass China's and maybe the U.S.'s. Europe is following Japan into the abyss following the peak of their spending curve, and yet the I fund is dominated by Europe and Japan, about as bad as it gets for foreign investing.

Very interesting. Well, here's the question then, and please forgive my ignorance: Does anybody on this MB know how the I fund was set up, and would it be possible for the FRTIB to make adjustments to the I fund to be able to track other countries/regions? This may have been a topic here in the past that I missed. Sorry for clogging your thread Tsunami.

 

[Tsunami]

Very interesting. Well, here's the question then, and please forgive my ignorance: Does anybody on this MB know how the I fund was set up, and would it be possible for the FRTIB to make adjustments to the I fund to be able to track other countries/regions? This may have been a topic here in the past that I missed. Sorry for clogging your thread Tsunami.

No problem, I'm getting tired of talking to myself...I'd guess that the EFA fund was picked out as the best option that was representative of the developed/larger world markets, and it probably still is good for that. I'd just like to have an emerging markets fund as an option too. If they ever add more funds, perhaps they could put limits on them such as no more than 20% of your account goes into a sector fund.

I guess that's why several years ago I cut back my contributions to 5% and do the real investing elsewhere.

 

[tsptalk]

Does anybody on this MB know how the I fund was set up, and would it be possible for the FRTIB to make adjustments to the I fund to be able to track other countries/regions?

http://www.tsptalk.com/funds.html

 

[coolhand]

No problem, I'm getting tired of talking to myself...I'd guess that the EFA fund was picked out as the best option that was representative of the developed/larger world markets, and it probably still is good for that. I'd just like to have an emerging markets fund as an option too. If they ever add more funds, perhaps they could put limits on them such as no more than 20% of your account goes into a sector fund.

I guess that's why several years ago I cut back my contributions to 5% and do the real investing elsewhere.

How about a NAZ fund? Or REITs? Emerging markets would be good too, I agree with that.

 

[Tsunami]

How about a NAZ fund? Or REITs? Emerging markets would be good too, I agree with that.

Yes, and maybe a mining and metals fund. I hope they actually go through with the proposal to allow investing in outside funds, but they're slow as molasses.

Here's a couple more sobering articles... the first one has probably been seen by many....

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/our-debt-time-bomb-is-ready-to-go-ka-boom-2010-02-02

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Dougherty/jan222010.html
"if the United States government were to nationalize (in other words, steal) every penny of private wealth accumulated by America’s citizens since the nation’s founding 235 years ago, the government would remain totally bankrupt."
"Furthermore, with the budgetary equivalent of a straight face, the Office of Management and Budget reports in its long-term, inter-generational budget projection that the United States government will experience massive, non-stop deficits for the next 70 (SEVENTY) years, requiring the issuance of tens of trillions of dollars of additional debt. The OMB does not project even one year of surplus during the entire seventy year budget period."

 

[Nordic]

http://www.tsptalk.com/funds.html

Thanks Tom, that answers most of my question.

 

[JamesE]

No problem, I'm getting tired of talking to myself....

Don't think like that... I for one have been missing your input! On that note, in stocks tommorrow (big Friday)?? Or stay away?? I'm 75G 25S currently. Thanks

 

[Tsunami]

Staying out for now James, it's a tough call at this point as to how far this goes. It could get uglier than the 1030-1050 area I was looking for for the bottom. There's an awful lot of scared people out there today though. Today's lower volume than the previous drops the last couple weeks is evidence that there are fewer people left to sell. Today might have been the peak of this panic...I caught a bit of CNBC mid-day and was amused at how everyone was talking loudly and quickly with panicked tone to their voice, except permabull Kudlow.

A few more days of the closing Arms ratio being well above 1.0 like today and we're sure to see a strong rally.

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-tradingdiary.html?mod=mdc_t

3.45, that should produce a bounce tomorrow into the 1070's but it should be reversed again I think for at least one more short term low.

If we don't get the dreaded "wave 3 of wave 3" down starting Monday, I'll be more convinced than ever that we're going to rally again above that 1150 high last month.....one possibility is that tomorrow brings a wave 4 and 5 that finishes an ABC 3-wave corrective drop from the top, but then that whole move turns out to be just the first drop in a "double zig zag" drop that lasts into March. That's my current guess-of-the-day. So there could be a weak rally for a week or so (starting with yet another up Monday?), then another drop down to 1,030 or lower into March. Who knows.

Boy, here's a sign of the times... http://www.thefallofamerica.net/

 

[jdphx]

Boy, here's a sign of the times... http://www.thefallofamerica.net/

Pretty hard core, "the sky is falling stuff" there Tsunami!!! :blink:

 

[Tsunami]

Looks like we just finished another 5 waves down. It's possible that could be it, but doubtful I think. The Head and Shoulders pattern points to 975-990. If my hopeful outlook is right and this is just wave C of a correction (and we're now in wave 2 up of the larger C down), then possible targets of the low could be...

Wave C = Wave A at 1025.87
Wave C = 1.618 x Wave A at 977.13

Some miscellaneous stuff....

California's teachers pension fund is $43 billion short. "Over the next five years, CalSTRS must earn more than 20% a year". Good luck with that.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-calstrs29-2010jan29,0,4882943.story Meanwhile state pension and healthcare funds for retirees are now $3 trillion underfunded. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aKQk6SUcSr3A

Meanwhile, governments just aren't printing fast enough to tip us into the inflation needed to reduce these debts.... http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8496830.stm so I see this resolving into deflation next year. We'll see.

I really need to change banks....
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/t...ectors/banking_and_finance/article7015681.ece


If this guy is right, the run-up gold/silver should coincide with a runup in stocks as well. Perhaps the next few inflation numbers will pick up to drive it?.... http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=97226&sn=Detail&pid=1

 

[Tsunami]

For the dollar, 80.82 was my target if it's in a 3-wave rally per McHugh and others. That would be the point where wave A up equals this wave C. And the S&P just hit it's 200ema. Hmmm. Things are looking tempting for those that like to catch falling knives. I'm seeing Elliott wave patterns completing all over the place, just need one more little up then down into the close (or a gap down Monday that's reversed) for perfection. Timewise, I thought this would last longer, but the moment of truth is arriving for the bull vs. bear battle.

 

[Tsunami]

In relation to the 2007 chart Tom posted here...

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=255124#post255124

...As if we don't have enough gurus to watch already, I'd like to nudge those interested to check out the two web sites linked below. Note that on Friday his lower envelope line was at 1045, a perfect hit (although he expects the markets to head lower...the 1030 area would be sufficient). After seeing that near perfect analog to the Feb/March 2007 correction to the correction we've just had, it wouldn't surprise me at all if Friday was the low and Mr. Market burns the hoards of people coming out of the woodwork to short the farm expecting a crash now (there seems to be a bubble in gloom right now)....then again a continued drop to below 1000 wouldn't surprise me either. I've been following Laundry for about a year now and his crystal ball has been pretty good for catching tops (not bottoms though).

Anyway, here are the links. The first one he updates every morning Tuesday - Saturday (and also note the links to tutorials on his "T-Theory"), and the second one he updates with charts and audio commentary on Sunday mornings. He's an aging MIT physicist, a smart guy. Enjoy.

http://www.ttheoryfoundation.org/t-theory-calculations.html

http://www.ttheory.com/

>> Main site has the tutorials: http://www.ttheoryfoundation.org/

 

[coolhand]

Laundry is one of the folks I hear about on Trader's Talk quite a bit. I'll take a closer look. Thanks.

 

[Tsunami]

Wow, that's a big short position by the commercial traders on the dollar. Looks like JPMorgan is positioned for their next big money making trade.

http://jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/Weekly-Gold-charts-and-assorted-charts-2-5-2010.pdf

 

[Tsunami]

It's no secret that China is starting to sell their pile of U.S. bonds, but now they're accelerating the selling:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aFJ57ZEjS0uM

And Japan could be next to follow:

http://moneynews.com/StreetTalk/china-japan-dollar-obama/2010/02/17/id/350146

That's probably tied to the urgency of the Fed's move after hours. I still think the tsunami of bad news holds off until late summer, and the markets will move higher, but things are starting to get interesting!

Another story, bank lending is falling at it's fastest rate in history, can you spell deflationary depression coming?.... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...lending-falls-at-fastest-rate-in-history.html

Home foreclosures are expected to increase this year, rising rates won't help any.....

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-mortgage-mods17-2010feb17,0,7573498.story

At least for tomorrow, I'll be content watching from the G fund. The index's finished today very close to their 50dma's and also their 61.8% fibonaci retracements, and the Elliott wave patterns look complete for the rally. It's a perfect setup for the bears if they can take this raging bull by the horns and tie him up for a week or two.

One other interesting item, the news is out that Goldman Sachs has been helping Greece hide it's debt, but is the U.S. also helping to fund their debt? As if we don't have enough of our own.

http://www.ronpaul.com/2010-02-16/ron-paul-are-us-taxpayers-bailing-out-greece/

The bold American eagle is about to get pounced on by a tiger in disguise.

 

[malyla]

The bold American eagle is about to get pounced on by a tiger in disguise.

Great post. That's a wonderful photo. Where did you get it and what happened (eagle fly off or cat back up?)

 

[Tsunami]

Got the photo and links from a daily free email I get from CaseyResearch.com. Anybody can get it here: http://www.caseyresearch.com/crpmkt/gsdOptIn.php

I would hope the cat backed down! But cats can be pretty dumb. I just Googled the photo and found this as well.....



And this...

 

[malyla]

I will have to disagree about the intelligence of cats. Any land based animal that can challenge a winged creature and sometimes win, where the wing creature has 'never' won, has my respect. Cats are wonderful predators to watch. Cunning and opportunistic. I also appreciate dogs, but I have seen dogs back down when facing a cornered cat.

Thanks for sharing

 

[Tsunami]

The bears are drooling over charts like this tonight, especially considering it stopped right at the 50dma and the 61.8% retracement.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S33T5s0cCzI/AAAAAAAAEA8/Q0m4LRD3uLI/s1600-h/spx5.png

I'm not convinced it will fall below the Feb 5th low from here, but a drop to at least 1080 seems likely over the next few days.

http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/

I couldn't stand it and grabbed a couple of March put options on BIDU right before the close today. Fingers crossed, I usually get burned with options but that BIDU chart looks so juicy.
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S33ChJgcfvI/AAAAAAAAEAs/EgRzHirGPKY/s1600-h/bidu.png

Thanks to Poolman for posting Daneric's blog link a while back.

(Malyla - I love cats but am unfortunately very allergic to them!)

 

[WorkFE]

Malyla,
I will agree that cats are very adequate hunters and it is a bred in at birth instinct. Dogs on the other hand have to be taught either by their owner or through packing. However I have a friend who found a cyote pup years ago. Four years ago he bred him with a shelty mix. I have the only one that lived, litter of five. He is without a doubt the most instinctive hunting animal I have ever owned. He is a great inside dog and gets along very well with the cat but I'm sure if it was not for me he would eat her.:laugh:
Only draw back is he puts off this wild animal smell at certain times of the year. Lots of baths

Sorry for hijacking your thread Tsunami