Tsunami's Account Talk

[nasa1974]

"The Federal Reserve exists solely to provide the US government with all the dollars it wants to spend, even if it has to side-step congressional authority to do it."
http://www.fgmr.com/december-30-2009-federal-reserve-needs-more-money.html

So which way will the herd go to open 2010, uphill or downhill? Austrailia has opened flat, awaiting guidance from the U.S. markets?

I only had three deer in my back yard this morning about 4am. They where digging up seeds under my bird feeders and drinking from the heated bird bath. :nuts:

 

[nnuut]

Look close and you will know why you don't see any Bucks in this group!
View attachment 7838

 

[airlift]

The U.S. and UK are right up there with the countries we're hear about in the news as being disasters about to happen...

From a free daily newsletter I get:

The truth however, is beginning to surface, and from an investor's perspective, the truth can mean money in the bank. Right now, the IEA's claim that oil production will be ramped up from its current level of 85 million barrels per day to 105 million barrel per day by 2030 is receiving harsh criticism.

The Guardian reports, "The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit." This comes from a whistleblower inside the International Energy Agency who states the fear of triggering panic buying has caused them to intentionally underplay the inevitable shortage.
Kjell Aleklett, professor of physics at the Uppsala University in Sweden, and co-author of a new report, The Peak of the Oil Age, states "oil production is more likely to be 75m barrels a day by 2030 than the 'unrealistic' 105m used by the IEA."
According to Professor Aleklett's research, they are making a dangerous and unjustified assumption. One that is dependent upon the oil industry's ability to ramp up production to levels never before achieved.

Tsunami,

I had not read your posts yesterday. Welcome aboard! I read the post identifying the websites that you customarily follow, and there is no question in my mind that you are a great addition to this MB. Some of the publications are indeed costly. Therefore, I will ask you to please continue to post your views or the views that you consider more credible in the delicate and uncertain economic and financial future.

In the text above I highlighted the Guardian's report regarding the peak of oil production. Assuming that this scarcity is the most likely trend, the price of fossil fuel energy, oil, gasoline, etc., could reach unbelievable higher prices which will indeed strangle our economy.

We already had a very recent and awful experience with the $140 dollar oil per barrel. Based on your informed opinion, do you believe that this conclusion will confirm and support the critical national necessity of our country to increase the speed of transition into the research, incentives, credits, and so forth, in the alternative fuel area? in order to avoid a hostage situation of our economy, a definitive transformation and acceptance of alternatives fuels and standards in our industrial plant, machinery, automotive industry, is imperative. Clearly, the consumer must be willing to accept the benefits of the chanegover. Any other views will be appreciated. Tia.

 

[burrocrat]

you got good eyes for a retired guy nnuut, or maybe just an experienced hunter. i knew they had to be somewhere, the 3 heading for nasa's backyard were the tipoff.

i was hoping for a continuation of last years late sell off, but it doesn't look like that will happen today. i'm intermediate and long term bullish and would like to get in with my fresh trades but have some short term fear here, i'm thinking the bulls are in the crosshairs.

my current allocation provides a little upside, but few benefits when the herd takes off running, which way are they gonna go?

 

[Tsunami]

Airlift,

I'm a believer in peak oil. I'm an enginner in DOE, and really wish DOE would find ways to focus more of it's research dollars on the energy situation. We need to get off of using oil for ground transportation and save what's left for future generation's use in air and water transportation, and for use in consumer products such as plastics. Matt Simmons http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches (also frequently interviewed on financialsense.com) is the top expert on the peak oil situation and he's been pounding the drum for years trying to point out the urgency of the situation. He's leading a big project in Maine for offshore wind energy, and more excitingly a project to use liquid ammonia as fuel in vehicles. He's a smart guy and seems to think that is the solution, so I'd like to learn more about that.

When Mexico stops exporting oil to the U.S. in a couple years and oil shoots up to $200 and higher, the panic will really get going. I wish it didn't take a situation like that to kick the necessary innovations into high gear, but that's the way the world works.

On a completely different subject, Dow 1,000? I haven't read this yet but it was recommended by Casey Research today in my daily missive from them: http://longwavegroup.com/publications/special_editions/2009/pdf/091222_Dow1000.pdf

 

[JTH]

I'm a peak oil fellow myself and making preparations where I can. I hope to give my next house off the grid capability.

 

[airlift]

Airlift,

I'm a believer in peak oil. I'm an enginner in DOE, and really wish DOE would find ways to focus more of it's research dollars on the energy situation. We need to get off of using oil for ground transportation and save what's left for future generation's use in air and water transportation, and for use in consumer products such as plastics. Matt Simmons http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches (also frequently interviewed on financialsense.com) is the top expert on the peak oil situation and he's been pounding the drum for years trying to point out the urgency of the situation. He's leading a big project in Maine for offshore wind energy, and more excitingly a project to use liquid ammonia as fuel in vehicles. He's a smart guy and seems to think that is the solution, so I'd like to learn more about that.

When Mexico stops exporting oil to the U.S. in a couple years and oil shoots up to $200 and higher, the panic will really get going. I wish it didn't take a situation like that to kick the necessary innovations into high gear, but that's the way the world works.

On a completely different subject, Dow 1,000? I haven't read this yet but it was recommended by Casey Research today in my daily missive from them: http://longwavegroup.com/publications/special_editions/2009/pdf/091222_Dow1000.pdf

Tsunami,

Thank you for the very useful information!

 

[Tsunami]

A great week to start the year. I love seeing all the fear evident in news articles, CNBC guests, and even posts on this board. It tells me the markets have higher to go. More bears need to give up before we reach the top.

As for the dollar, one cycles newsletter guy says this little correction down probably bottomed on Tuesday, but my Elliott wave eye is telling me it needs a wave C down to touch the 50dma somewhere below 77 before it's done with the downward correction. If so, that will give a tailwind to stocks and commodities up to my anticipated first peak of the year around 1/21/10. A steady flow of good earnings reports should help fight the overbought condition as well. My S&P target rises a point or two every day, and looks to be zeroing in on a January peak in the 1160's, and could spike higher. That's where I'll take a break on the beach for a few weeks.

This is interesting, is the dollar being setup for the next takedown? :worried: http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/S...tm&bn=18327&tid=102072&mid=102072&tof=6&frt=2

 

[Bullitt]

I agree about the dollar only because of the current open longs from speculators.

As for the market, who's bearish besides the guys who always are?

View attachment 7913

sentimentrader.com

 

[coolhand]

I agree about the dollar only because of the current open longs from speculators.

As for the market, who's bearish besides the guys who always are?

View attachment 7913

sentimentrader.com

Exactly.

 

[Tsunami]

Just some Friday Funnies...

ROMANCE MATHEMATICS
Smart man + smart woman = romance
Smart man + dumb woman = affair
Dumb man + smart woman = marriage
Dumb man + dumb woman = pregnancy
OFFICE ARITHMETIC
Smart boss + smart employee = profit
Smart boss + dumb employee = production
Dumb boss + smart employee = promotion
Dumb boss + dumb employee = overtime
SHOPPING MATH
A man will pay $2 for a $1 item he needs.
A woman will pay $1 for a $2 item that she doesn't need.
GENERAL EQUATIONS & STATISTICS
A woman worries about the future until she gets a husband.
A man never worries about the future until he gets a wife.
A successful man is one who makes more money than his wife can spend.
A successful woman is one who can find such a man.
HAPPINESS
To be happy with a man, you must understand him a lot and love him a little.
To be happy with a woman, you must love her a lot and not try to understand her at all.
LONGEVITY
Married men live longer than single men do, but married men are a lot more willing to die.
PROPENSITY TO CHANGE
A woman marries a man expecting he will change, but he doesn't.
A man marries a woman expecting that she won't change, and she does.
DISCUSSION TECHNIQUE
A woman has the last word in any argument.
Anything a man says after that is the beginning of a new argument.

 

[tsptalk]

Good stuff! :laugh:

 

[Tsunami]

Puplava's 2010 forecast's begin this week in his podcasts:

http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.php

 

[grandma]

Just some Friday Funnies...

yes! - fun-nee !!! -probably because a lot of truth in some of them !!!

 

[Tsunami]

I have a question to pose for anyone who wants to put in their 2 cents. In addition to the Treasury swiping retirement accounts in an attempt to avoid drowning in the coming tsunami (brought up this morning by Coolhand in his thread), one of my fears is that the government could resort to an overnight devaluation of the dollar if they can't get inflation high enough to eat up it's debt. This should be at least a year away if it happens at all, but it's something that historically has been done numerous times in the final desparate stages of trying to save fiat currencies, including several times by Argentina.

My question is, regarding our TSP accounts, which fund do you think would be the best one to be in in the case we wake up one Monday morning and hear that the dollar has been devaluated 50% or whatever? This would equate to an instant overnight 100% inflation. Prices of all goods would have to be marked up 100% that morning. Salaries would double. Debts would stay the same however, so your mortgage and other loan payments would effectively drop by half . As for savings, obviously hard paper cash and bank savings accounts would be the worst thing to own, since the value of cash would drop 50% , but what about the various TSP funds ? Gold would double, but the devaluation could be preceded by Uncle Sam repeating it's 1930's trick of taking everyone's gold prior to the devaluation (I think unlikely since it would be so impractical in today's world, but who knows, it's one argument why some people say to buy silver, not gold). Would the I fund be the best since the value of foreign stocks would effectively double overnight? Would the G and F fund's value be protected or would government securities and bonds behave like cash? This issue confuses me. The only thing that makes my head hurt more is thinking about the universe having no end :blink:, but it's important and I'd like to know the answer in advance if things get out of hand.

If the answer to the question is that the stock funds would fair better in an overnight devaluation than the G/F funds, then that presents another problem, since the stock markets could be plummeting at the time this happens and most people will be parked in the G/F funds for "safety".

So, if anyone replies, which fund you think would be the one to be in, and explain why.

Thanks!

 

[tsptalk]

In theory the I-fund would do well - that's assuming the currencies of the EAFE countries don't also plummet. I would think bond yields would also plummet so the F-fund might be "more safe".

That's just theory and "if" this did happen, it might be moot if chaos ensues, in which case food storage and ammunition might be your best investment.

 

[JTH]

I don't see a good outcome, chances are the Feds have already spent our TSP money so we're all screwed.

Buy China, and ammo to keep China from buying you...

 

[Bullitt]

Yeah I agree with Tom on the I Fund- in theory only. Reason being, If we were to devalue overnight, we're talking the ECB, Japan, China, Russia.... hell, every Central Bank in the world, would have to follow suit. So, I think it would all be relative because there's no way the US would be the only ones to go base jumping. Japan would absolutely explode if the US CB pulled off such a move.

Really, it's what's going on now in a lot of ways. The unknowing blogosphere believes that the US is the only country devaluing right now to get out of this mess. The entire world is devaluing right now (except I think that Israel just raised rates, so did Australia) but the difference is, the US is doing it at a faster pace. It's like the quote, "If everybody is wrong, then nobody is wrong".

Hey, why knock Mondays? Haha, I heard Dr. McHugh tell Mr. Puplava in this week's interview about how it's mysterious that the majority of this Bull's gains have come on Mondays.

 

[Show-me]

I say I fund too. STA sez no sell on Fridays and Mondays. January expiration week Monday is strong, 9 of last 13 finished positive and the rest of the week tanks.

 

[Tsunami]

I hadn't heard this until now. Hugo devalued Venezuala's currency a few days ago.... http://online.wsj.com/article_email/SB126305109903923235-lMyQjAxMTIwNjAzOTAwNTkxWj.html

Either through high inflation, or that more desparate method, it's coming.

http://www.zazzle.com/got_gold_mug-168006501532802615