Tsunami
Well-known member
Erik King's views for 2010:
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/1/10_Eric_King.html
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/1/10_Eric_King.html
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com
-
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!
Tsunami's Account Talk
- Thread starter Tsunami
- Start date
Tsunami
Well-known member
Stocks are following my expected path so far this year and I agree with others that the 61.8% retracement (I calculate as 1228.74 to be precise) is almost a given by early April, and I can see 1300 as possible this year before the peak....which might even put the Nasdaq-100 above the 2007 peak for a very large ABC corrective rally from the 2002/3 lows. A short term top is near though, just trying to figure out where is the hard part. 
The VIX produced a sell signal yesterday that only occurs once every 6 months or so when it dropped below the 2 standard deviation bollinger band, then closed back above it yesterday. That's a big warning that at least a 5% drop is very near most likely.
Looking for banana peels that can trip up the markets this year, below is an updated chart of the mortgage reset situation. We're starting to head up the slope. Back in January 2004 I sold a condo in the SF Bay Area for a ridiculous $245,000 (it had doubled in just a couple years)....I'm a glutton for punishment so I kept tracking it's value using sites like realtor.com, domania.com and zillow.com...it kept going up and up in value and peaked in late 2005 at gulp, $380,000....then the crash hit and prices in that development dropped, and dropped, and dropped...to a recent bottom of $99,000 asking price for the same model as my old condo, then a few weeks ago my exact old condo went on the market for $110,000, so the young asian girl that bought it is trying to sell it for a 55% loss in just 6 years. Ouch. Meanwhile the house I bought just weeks after selling the condo in my new town (which was 3 times larger, almost new, on a nicely landscaped quarter acre, and cost considerably LESS than that little Bay Area condo) is still valued at about 5% more than my wife and I paid for it 6 years ago. I'm not in one, but I still seeing a lot of way too expensive housing markets out there though. It depends on where you live but it sure seems to me like there's going to be another wave down, and I think it starts this coming Fall. Here's that morgtage chart:
The VIX produced a sell signal yesterday that only occurs once every 6 months or so when it dropped below the 2 standard deviation bollinger band, then closed back above it yesterday. That's a big warning that at least a 5% drop is very near most likely. Looking for banana peels that can trip up the markets this year, below is an updated chart of the mortgage reset situation. We're starting to head up the slope. Back in January 2004 I sold a condo in the SF Bay Area for a ridiculous $245,000 (it had doubled in just a couple years)....I'm a glutton for punishment so I kept tracking it's value using sites like realtor.com, domania.com and zillow.com...it kept going up and up in value and peaked in late 2005 at gulp, $380,000....then the crash hit and prices in that development dropped, and dropped, and dropped...to a recent bottom of $99,000 asking price for the same model as my old condo, then a few weeks ago my exact old condo went on the market for $110,000, so the young asian girl that bought it is trying to sell it for a 55% loss in just 6 years. Ouch. Meanwhile the house I bought just weeks after selling the condo in my new town (which was 3 times larger, almost new, on a nicely landscaped quarter acre, and cost considerably LESS than that little Bay Area condo) is still valued at about 5% more than my wife and I paid for it 6 years ago. I'm not in one, but I still seeing a lot of way too expensive housing markets out there though. It depends on where you live but it sure seems to me like there's going to be another wave down, and I think it starts this coming Fall. Here's that morgtage chart:
Tsunami
Well-known member
Federal News Radio will have Tom Trabucco on at 10 a.m. EST with an update on the Roth option....
http://www.federalnewsradio.com/?nid=20&sid=1861587
http://www.federalnewsradio.com/?nid=20&sid=1861587
Bullitt
Well-known member
Thanks for the updated Alt-A graph. I have to ask myself, if this chart is the public one, which one is GS seeing? Also, has the market already factored this into the price?
Sometimes I wonder how efficient the market really is, especially when you mention how you tracked a condo price since 2004 and saw a mess coming down the line.
We could very well see that 1228 level but my problem with it is that nearly every bull is looking at that level to be the top. Bulls are still ignoring the blatant VIX sell signal though. One year ago, the VIX was front page news telling us its value as a buy/sell signal. I am no longer a gold bull and am exploring ways to make the deflation trade. The inflation story is now front page news with institutions advising their clients to 'hedge' (such a sophisticated word) their dollars with commodities. The bubble in commodities is becoming clearer now as the US recorded a record Soybean crop.
What worries me about the commodity bulls thesis is that trees don't grow to the sky. China can not keep up this breakneck buying pace. Think oil to $200 and the recent housing bust.
Sometimes I wonder how efficient the market really is, especially when you mention how you tracked a condo price since 2004 and saw a mess coming down the line.
We could very well see that 1228 level but my problem with it is that nearly every bull is looking at that level to be the top. Bulls are still ignoring the blatant VIX sell signal though. One year ago, the VIX was front page news telling us its value as a buy/sell signal. I am no longer a gold bull and am exploring ways to make the deflation trade. The inflation story is now front page news with institutions advising their clients to 'hedge' (such a sophisticated word) their dollars with commodities. The bubble in commodities is becoming clearer now as the US recorded a record Soybean crop.
http://www.commodityonline.com/futu...alls-weak-overseas-demand-to-blame-13964.html
What worries me about the commodity bulls thesis is that trees don't grow to the sky. China can not keep up this breakneck buying pace. Think oil to $200 and the recent housing bust.
Tsunami
Well-known member
Bullit,
Chris Puplava did this nice piece on the commodity market yesterday: http://www.financialsense.com/Market/cpuplava/2010/0113.html
I think the inflation/deflation debate gets decided in the second half of 2010, but in the mean time there's a bit more bubble blowing to do in stocks and commodities. Each commodity has it's own story and will keel over on it's own, but long term demographics and supplies of things like water, fertalizer, land, and availability of what's left to dig and suck out of the ground will keep driving prices higher. If deflation wins temporarily and the stock markets take a nosedive, some of the money coming out will probably once again (like late 2007/early 2008) go into commodities for at least a few months until things accelerate down and everything falls in unison for a while.....but then once again commodities should recover and resume their secular bull climb way before stocks bottom.
As for real estate, there are some pretty good bubbles out there still waiting to pop worldwide.....China real estate has "doubled and doubled again" in the last 5 years per Casey Research, Hong Kong is insane, Austrailia...the Vancouver B.C. bubble may finally burst right after the Olympics are over. I'm from the Northwest and have spent a few great vacations on Vancouver Island and in Vancouver, spent a week in Whistler a few years ago, it's very nice, gorgeous scenery, but no place is as nice as those insane prices.
Chris Puplava did this nice piece on the commodity market yesterday: http://www.financialsense.com/Market/cpuplava/2010/0113.html
I think the inflation/deflation debate gets decided in the second half of 2010, but in the mean time there's a bit more bubble blowing to do in stocks and commodities. Each commodity has it's own story and will keel over on it's own, but long term demographics and supplies of things like water, fertalizer, land, and availability of what's left to dig and suck out of the ground will keep driving prices higher. If deflation wins temporarily and the stock markets take a nosedive, some of the money coming out will probably once again (like late 2007/early 2008) go into commodities for at least a few months until things accelerate down and everything falls in unison for a while.....but then once again commodities should recover and resume their secular bull climb way before stocks bottom.
As for real estate, there are some pretty good bubbles out there still waiting to pop worldwide.....China real estate has "doubled and doubled again" in the last 5 years per Casey Research, Hong Kong is insane, Austrailia...the Vancouver B.C. bubble may finally burst right after the Olympics are over. I'm from the Northwest and have spent a few great vacations on Vancouver Island and in Vancouver, spent a week in Whistler a few years ago, it's very nice, gorgeous scenery, but no place is as nice as those insane prices.
Bullitt
Well-known member
Thanks for the link. I'm sure investors will continue to shrug off things such as record crops, rising oil prices, clear bubbles in the housing markets you listed, and the Chinese CB raising interest rates because that's what happens in a euphoria.
More bear food for thought. Germany is the bellweather of Europe and just posted a 5% drop in its economy during 20009. Possible double dip recession looming? I don't know, but I'd hate to see how Ireland, Greece, Spain and Iceland are doing. Then again, who cares, at the end of the day as long as the keg is full, err, I mean interest rates are at record lows, why stop partying?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052748704362004575000264093920970.html
I dropped all of my commodity stocks/ETF's into any strength last week. I'm sure I will miss a few 5-10% points, but it's a chance I'm willing to take.
More bear food for thought. Germany is the bellweather of Europe and just posted a 5% drop in its economy during 20009. Possible double dip recession looming? I don't know, but I'd hate to see how Ireland, Greece, Spain and Iceland are doing. Then again, who cares, at the end of the day as long as the keg is full, err, I mean interest rates are at record lows, why stop partying?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB20001424052748704362004575000264093920970.html
I dropped all of my commodity stocks/ETF's into any strength last week. I'm sure I will miss a few 5-10% points, but it's a chance I'm willing to take.
Tsunami
Well-known member
Laugh all you want, but this guy actually has a pretty good track record....
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crawford-predicts-mid-year-massacre-2010-01-14
His warnings are quite ominous. Even I'm not that bearish long term, or at least try not to be.
My current target for a short-term escape is around 1165 (simply using Keltner channels as one of the overlays of a $SPX chart on stockcharts.com, with parameters of 12,2.0,20...after playing with those on a 6-month chart to try to set it so that the extreme moves just touch those channel lines, it's kinda fun....and also using the theory that at Tuesday's low we started a wave 5 up to end this rally, and a gap up tomorrow would be the middle of wave 3 of this wave 5, points to a top next Wednesday-ish, at 1165ish, which I think exactly matches the target that coolhand or somebody here had, nice job by whoever that was). The target rises about 2 points a day, now up at 1160 but the Elliott waves say not quiet yet...maybe an Intel pop tomorrow will get us there....but Jupiter and Venus are saying it goes higher into next week, possibly crawling up those channel lines into the 1170's for this peak or even a spike higher with some short covering. I don't see it getting to that 1228 mark on this current rally though...but the next rally, maybe. For the rest of this year it's going to be a trading game to try to get a few percent here and there and not lose it on the sudden drops.
The dollar is zeroing in on completing this wave B down correction near the 50 dma as I suspected, probably coinciding with the end of the stock rally in the next few days. Wish I'd listened to myself and moved to the I fund about a week ago for this stretch, oh well.
Let's see, INTC earnings just out, yep, pointing to a pop at tomorrow's open. Perfect.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crawford-predicts-mid-year-massacre-2010-01-14
His warnings are quite ominous. Even I'm not that bearish long term, or at least try not to be.
My current target for a short-term escape is around 1165 (simply using Keltner channels as one of the overlays of a $SPX chart on stockcharts.com, with parameters of 12,2.0,20...after playing with those on a 6-month chart to try to set it so that the extreme moves just touch those channel lines, it's kinda fun....and also using the theory that at Tuesday's low we started a wave 5 up to end this rally, and a gap up tomorrow would be the middle of wave 3 of this wave 5, points to a top next Wednesday-ish, at 1165ish, which I think exactly matches the target that coolhand or somebody here had, nice job by whoever that was). The target rises about 2 points a day, now up at 1160 but the Elliott waves say not quiet yet...maybe an Intel pop tomorrow will get us there....but Jupiter and Venus are saying it goes higher into next week, possibly crawling up those channel lines into the 1170's for this peak or even a spike higher with some short covering. I don't see it getting to that 1228 mark on this current rally though...but the next rally, maybe. For the rest of this year it's going to be a trading game to try to get a few percent here and there and not lose it on the sudden drops.
The dollar is zeroing in on completing this wave B down correction near the 50 dma as I suspected, probably coinciding with the end of the stock rally in the next few days. Wish I'd listened to myself and moved to the I fund about a week ago for this stretch, oh well.
Let's see, INTC earnings just out, yep, pointing to a pop at tomorrow's open. Perfect.
grandma
Well-known member
A few years back, didn't we have a spate of posts regarding the effect of the full moon & other sky things on the market? There is no doubt in my mind that folks connected with hospital, police & fire dept, emergency servers will all agree the Full Moon is there when things get their wildest, weirdest......
Tsunami
Well-known member
Banana peel #2 for the markets to trip on this year....that award relates to the discussion by Show-Me and others on other threads about the government wanting to force retirement accounts into government securities. Even if that doesn't happen, there's still going to be a LOT more than the usual tax loss selling starting around Labor Day this year due to the Bush tax cuts expiration on 12/31. That could really snowball into an ugly Fall stock market. 
Tsunami
Well-known member
Looks like most of the remaining people that were 100% S like me bailed out today to somewhere. As for me, I decided to take advantage of the I fund weakness and my hunch that the dollar will make one more drop next week to 76.5, and, gulp, went 100% I. :blink:
Today's drop bothers me though, looks like a 5-down then a 3-wave rally, to be followed by another 5-wave drop next week most likely. Positive overseas trading Monday will be needed to right the ship. In the longer run though, no worries, it's going higher, I think.
One of my newsletter guys (McHugh) will be crowing this weekend that this is it, the top of the big wave B rally since March...but I think he'll be eating crow again.
Today's drop bothers me though, looks like a 5-down then a 3-wave rally, to be followed by another 5-wave drop next week most likely. Positive overseas trading Monday will be needed to right the ship. In the longer run though, no worries, it's going higher, I think.
One of my newsletter guys (McHugh) will be crowing this weekend that this is it, the top of the big wave B rally since March...but I think he'll be eating crow again.
Tsunami
Well-known member
Some weekend reading....
The issue of whether the government is manipulating the stock market is being talked about more and more. Here's the CEO of Trim Tabs discussing his theory:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQyFxBG6dhY
Funny how Obama's new proposals to curb banks from running hedge funds etc. won't apply to Goldman Sachs, and per Chuck Young at Rebeltrader.net GS has been hiring overnight futures traders in droves.
Bob McHugh had a looong rant in his latest newsletter on the Supreme Court decision this week. Can't post it, but in summary the Supreme Court redefined the definition of "people" to say that Corporations are now "people", so corporations can now spend as much as they want to A) buy the politicians who will be in office and B) force them to run the country the way they want it run. A few quotes from McHugh:
"The Supreme Court destroyed American democracy Thursday. Stick a fork in it. We are done."
"Future Supreme Court justices will be appointed by Presidents who have been bought, purchased, and are controlled by corporations."
"Goldman Sachs will decide elections."
"It means $10 gasoline if Exxon Mobil decides it needs the money".
"It means biologically developed diseases being spread over the land masses in order to sell more drugs to cure those diseases."
"It means elimination of unemployment insurance, elimination of the minimum wage, and elimination of social security."
"It means firing without cause and without severance."
"It means requiring you to have a chip under your skin in order to buy or sell anything."
"You are now a slave, a surf, within the new ruling class, the large Corporations."
"It means more wars so that large corporations that produce the military resources can profit."
"It means euthanizing patients who are sick and costing insurance companies too much to keep alive."
"Power will be in the hands of a few CEO's...elected officials will be puppets."
"For those of you who thought the large Head and Shoulders patterns in major stock indexes with downside targets of zero were ridiculous, I'll bet none of you anticipated this Supreme Court Ruling. The Market knows the future.....this is scary stuff."
I've been a subscriber for 6 years and haven't seen him go off to this extent before. He's seriously worried the coming collapse could take markets to near zero.
New airport security regulations?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwsVi9ULwLI
Our total debt is now 840% of GDP and growing rapidly, wow. Add in simple demographics that show Baby Boomers are now past their peak spending years, and I don't see how you can come to any conclusion other than the next decade will be another tough one. "The era of retiring at 60 or 65 is over."
Insiders are selling at a 82 to 1 ratio now, not a time to buy. Good interview, about 30 minutes: http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/1/23_Rob_Arnott.html
I glance at this link once in a while to get a sense of insider selling. A few months ago it was about 99% red, looks considerably better now but still leans heavily to selling: http://www.finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx
Diane Feinstein said this week that the Cap and Trade bill wont' happen, it's dead. Good news. It's stories like this coming out that have hopefully killed it. http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/engdahl/2010/0122.html No shortage of snow in New Mexico this winter. Woke up to more today.
On unemployment, a couple links that show the current worsening situation:
http://www.propublica.org/feature/u...red-propublica-predicts-nine-more-within-0119
Wow, worth a moment of your time.... http://cohort11.americanobserver.net/latoyaegwuekwe/multimediafinal.html
And these two links together give a good picture of the credit card situation:
http://insurancenewsnet.com/article.aspx?id=154105
http://www.mybudget360.com/credit-c...-have-over-2-trillion-in-excess-reserves-yet/
The issue of whether the government is manipulating the stock market is being talked about more and more. Here's the CEO of Trim Tabs discussing his theory:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQyFxBG6dhY
Funny how Obama's new proposals to curb banks from running hedge funds etc. won't apply to Goldman Sachs, and per Chuck Young at Rebeltrader.net GS has been hiring overnight futures traders in droves.
Bob McHugh had a looong rant in his latest newsletter on the Supreme Court decision this week. Can't post it, but in summary the Supreme Court redefined the definition of "people" to say that Corporations are now "people", so corporations can now spend as much as they want to A) buy the politicians who will be in office and B) force them to run the country the way they want it run. A few quotes from McHugh:
"The Supreme Court destroyed American democracy Thursday. Stick a fork in it. We are done."
"Future Supreme Court justices will be appointed by Presidents who have been bought, purchased, and are controlled by corporations."
"Goldman Sachs will decide elections."
"It means $10 gasoline if Exxon Mobil decides it needs the money".
"It means biologically developed diseases being spread over the land masses in order to sell more drugs to cure those diseases."
"It means elimination of unemployment insurance, elimination of the minimum wage, and elimination of social security."
"It means firing without cause and without severance."
"It means requiring you to have a chip under your skin in order to buy or sell anything."
"You are now a slave, a surf, within the new ruling class, the large Corporations."
"It means more wars so that large corporations that produce the military resources can profit."
"It means euthanizing patients who are sick and costing insurance companies too much to keep alive."
"Power will be in the hands of a few CEO's...elected officials will be puppets."
"For those of you who thought the large Head and Shoulders patterns in major stock indexes with downside targets of zero were ridiculous, I'll bet none of you anticipated this Supreme Court Ruling. The Market knows the future.....this is scary stuff."
I've been a subscriber for 6 years and haven't seen him go off to this extent before. He's seriously worried the coming collapse could take markets to near zero.
New airport security regulations?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hwsVi9ULwLI
Our total debt is now 840% of GDP and growing rapidly, wow. Add in simple demographics that show Baby Boomers are now past their peak spending years, and I don't see how you can come to any conclusion other than the next decade will be another tough one. "The era of retiring at 60 or 65 is over."
Insiders are selling at a 82 to 1 ratio now, not a time to buy. Good interview, about 30 minutes: http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/1/23_Rob_Arnott.html I glance at this link once in a while to get a sense of insider selling. A few months ago it was about 99% red, looks considerably better now but still leans heavily to selling: http://www.finviz.com/insidertrading.ashx
Diane Feinstein said this week that the Cap and Trade bill wont' happen, it's dead. Good news. It's stories like this coming out that have hopefully killed it. http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/engdahl/2010/0122.html No shortage of snow in New Mexico this winter. Woke up to more today.
On unemployment, a couple links that show the current worsening situation:
http://www.propublica.org/feature/u...red-propublica-predicts-nine-more-within-0119
Wow, worth a moment of your time.... http://cohort11.americanobserver.net/latoyaegwuekwe/multimediafinal.html
And these two links together give a good picture of the credit card situation:
http://insurancenewsnet.com/article.aspx?id=154105
http://www.mybudget360.com/credit-c...-have-over-2-trillion-in-excess-reserves-yet/
Tsunami
Well-known member
Time to buy a bigger mattress....
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/su...ec-approves-new-money-market-regulation-4-1-v
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/su...ec-approves-new-money-market-regulation-4-1-v
Tsunami
Well-known member
The closing TRIN of less that 1.0 is not helpful at all to the bulls. It looks more conducive for a rally in the Nasdaq and AMEX with those TRIN's greater than 1.0, but I'd prefer to see a TRIN number more like 3.0 to be confident of a strong rally. That's about all I know about the Arms ratio, otherwise known as TRIN, so I can't give a tutorial. Below 1.0 for a few days means the market is overbought and a fall is due, well above 1.0 for a few days means to expect a rally. I read an article in the local paper about Dick Arms a couple years ago (he lives in my town), he was looking for a young protege to take over for his work since his son wasn't interested.
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-tradingdiary.html?mod=mdc_t
This on the other hand is more helpful, a possible double bottom on the MC Oscillator in the oversold zone. We should be at/near a bottom here.
http://www.mcoscillator.com/market_breadth_data/
The 1075 area is a critical line in the sand that many technicians have drawn.
Hmm, if Obama's rating slips below that band then comes back into it, is that the buy signal for Obama stock?
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-tradingdiary.html?mod=mdc_t
This on the other hand is more helpful, a possible double bottom on the MC Oscillator in the oversold zone. We should be at/near a bottom here.
http://www.mcoscillator.com/market_breadth_data/
The 1075 area is a critical line in the sand that many technicians have drawn.
Hmm, if Obama's rating slips below that band then comes back into it, is that the buy signal for Obama stock?
Tsunami
Well-known member
Time for an update....
The closing Arms numbers have stayed below 1.0 for 5 days and today could be a 6th. That points to another big drop coming and it could start off with a bang. http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-tradingdiary.html?mod=mdc_t
For this weeks move I think the correct Elliott wave count is this one, with the green squiggle where we're headed tomorrow (up, thanks to Cisco/tech taking the lead in wave C up of this move). http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S2nmATHXRSI/AAAAAAAAD0c/zjNXI1XVGtM/s1600-h/spx1.png I think that he and others are wrong though that after this rally ends (Friday?) the next move is a scary wave 3 down. I think this whole drop is just a corrective wave "X", just like the one last June/July, and it will be followed by another strong rally, not doomsday (yet). I caught this up move perfectly, buying in last Friday in my non-TSP accounts, but had no ETF to do so in my TSP, that was my fault though for not following my January plan.
I wish I could track my daughters Vanguard Education IRA in the TSP tracker instead of my TSP account, I'm already up 4.8% this year in that one thanks to the lack of TSP's restrictions.
Lastly, I'm now about 2/3's of the way through Harry S. Dent's "The Great Depression Ahead", in which he predicted based on demographics that the Great Depression 2 would start no later than this month. I'm hoping he's early on that but the reasoning overall is compelling. One big conclusion I've reached from that book is that I have a third thing to complain about besides the 4-hour-early ETF deadline, and the 2 trades per month.....and that is that the I fund is garbage. It was OK 10 years ago, but not now. The countries with positive demographics going forward that I'd prefer to be able to invest in include those with positive demographics like India, Vietnam, Malaysia, Turkey, and Chile. By 2050 India's GDP will surpass China's and maybe the U.S.'s. Europe is following Japan into the abyss following the peak of their spending curve, and yet the I fund is dominated by Europe and Japan, about as bad as it gets for foreign investing.
The closing Arms numbers have stayed below 1.0 for 5 days and today could be a 6th. That points to another big drop coming and it could start off with a bang. http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-tradingdiary.html?mod=mdc_t
For this weeks move I think the correct Elliott wave count is this one, with the green squiggle where we're headed tomorrow (up, thanks to Cisco/tech taking the lead in wave C up of this move). http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_TwUS3GyHKsQ/S2nmATHXRSI/AAAAAAAAD0c/zjNXI1XVGtM/s1600-h/spx1.png I think that he and others are wrong though that after this rally ends (Friday?) the next move is a scary wave 3 down. I think this whole drop is just a corrective wave "X", just like the one last June/July, and it will be followed by another strong rally, not doomsday (yet). I caught this up move perfectly, buying in last Friday in my non-TSP accounts, but had no ETF to do so in my TSP, that was my fault though for not following my January plan.
I wish I could track my daughters Vanguard Education IRA in the TSP tracker instead of my TSP account, I'm already up 4.8% this year in that one thanks to the lack of TSP's restrictions. Lastly, I'm now about 2/3's of the way through Harry S. Dent's "The Great Depression Ahead", in which he predicted based on demographics that the Great Depression 2 would start no later than this month. I'm hoping he's early on that but the reasoning overall is compelling. One big conclusion I've reached from that book is that I have a third thing to complain about besides the 4-hour-early ETF deadline, and the 2 trades per month.....and that is that the I fund is garbage. It was OK 10 years ago, but not now. The countries with positive demographics going forward that I'd prefer to be able to invest in include those with positive demographics like India, Vietnam, Malaysia, Turkey, and Chile. By 2050 India's GDP will surpass China's and maybe the U.S.'s. Europe is following Japan into the abyss following the peak of their spending curve, and yet the I fund is dominated by Europe and Japan, about as bad as it gets for foreign investing.
Similar threads
- Article
